The Russian Government Forecasts A Possible 8% GDP Contraction For 2009

Edward Hugh May 20th, 2009

Of course, with all these large negative numbers going the rounds at the moment, we are all in danger of going rapidly dizzy, but some pieces of data still have the power to shock, like this morning’s announcement from Russia’s Economy Minister Elvira Nabiullina that the economy may shrink as much as 8 percent this [...]

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Is The Indian Economy Heading For Its Finest Hour?

Edward Hugh May 19th, 2009

“For what it’s worth, a key conclusion from the IMF’s new World Economic Outlook is that recessions caused by financial crisis typically end with export booms, with the trade balance improving,on average, by more than 3 percent of GDP. I find this a disturbing result: we’re now suffering from a global financial crisis, which means [...]

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Slovakia Takes The Biscuit – GDP Drops 11.2% In Three Months

Edward Hugh May 18th, 2009

I’ve been trying to draw attention to what is happening to Slovakian GDP for some months now, since I felt the consensus has been missing something (see this post, and this one). The Economist, for example, has been arguing some sort of version of Baltic and Hungarian exceptionalism in Eastern Europe, and even pointing to [...]

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The Agony Continues – Latvian GDP Falls By 18%

Edward Hugh May 15th, 2009

Latvia’s economy shrank by nearly a fifth (year on year) in the first quarter, according to the latest flash estimate from the national statistics office. Obviously this is a dreadful state of affairs, and illustrates just how difficult the country’s chosen adjustment path is proving to be. Gross domestic product fell 18% year-on-year, and Statistics [...]

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Not All East European Economies are the Same

Edward Hugh May 13th, 2009

This was Angela Merkel’s point wasn’t it, if you remember, as she came out of the April EU summit she argued:

“Saying that the situation is the same for all central and eastern European states, I don’t see that……you cannot compare the dire situation in Hungary with that of other countries.”

The Economist made a similar point at the time:

“Most other countries in the region are faring much better, though….Like Slovenia, which joined two years ago, Slovakia can enjoy the full protection of rich Europe’s currency union, rather than just the indirect benefit of being due to join it some day.”

And basically, it is true, not all East Europe’s economies are the same, though some of the differences between them might surprise you. There are, of course, many different ways in which to compare the economies of the East, but one very simple one, in terms of the present crisis, is the reading they register on the EU monthly Economic Sentiment Indicator. This is a composite which measures sentiment in industry, servces, construction, retail and building, and does at least have the advantage of offering us a rule of thumb guide as to how a country is handling the crisis.

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The Global Services Contraction Also Stabilises in April

Edward Hugh May 11th, 2009

The contraction in global services activity also seems to be easing up, following the pattern displayed by the manufacturing sector, and the JPMorgan Global Services Business Activity Index rose for the second month running in April, registering at 43.8 its highest level since last September. It is important to keep clearly in mind, however, that [...]

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Japan’s Economic Contraction Stabilises In March

Edward Hugh May 7th, 2009

Japan’s contraction showed signs of easing in March, even though the recession has now set in for the duration, the deepest point may well have been passed. The ship may be stable, but it is still far from being right side up. Industrial Output Up On The Month Japan’s industrial output rose in March (more [...]

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The Global Manufacturing Contraction Stabilises In April

Edward Hugh May 6th, 2009

The global manufacturing recession continued in April, with rates of contraction for output, new orders and employment all showing what are effectively sharp contractions by historical standards. The rates of contraction however moderated almost universally, and this is now the fourth month where this moderation has been evident. Thus, while the contraction is far from [...]

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Eurozone PMI Rebounds In March

Edward Hugh April 24th, 2009

Eurozone manufacturing and services sectors continued to contract in April, but the rate of decline continued to slow, according to the latest flash readings from the monthly surveys of purchasing managers. The preliminary Markit euro-zone PMI rose to 40.5 from a reading of 38.3 in March, a six-month high. The April services PMI rose to 43.1 from 40.9 in March, exceeding forecasts for a reading of 41.2. April manufacturing PMI rose to 43.1 from 33.9 in March, while expectations were for a reading of 41.2. A figure of less than 50 means a majority of purchasing managers saw a drop in activity, while a reading of more than 50 signals expansion.

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Slovenia’s Contraction Continues

Edward Hugh April 13th, 2009

Slovenia’s economic contraction continues to bite, and industrial output fell the most in at least six years in February as the worsening European recession continued to hit demand for exports. Annual output declined 22.3 percent, the fifth consecutive month that it dropped, from a 17.4 percent decrease in January. Month on month, production fell 0.9 percent.

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