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Category Archive: European Periphery
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Can This Really Be Europe We Are Talking About?
In recent days I have been think a lot, and reading a lot, about the implications of Greece’s recent election results. At the end of the day the only difference this whole process makes to the ultimate outcome may turn out to be one of timing. If Alexis Tsipras of the anti bailout, anti Troika, party Syriza [...]
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It’s Time to Stop Using Chewing Gum and Chicken Wire in Spain
“Every leg of the eurozone crisis has been marked by denial of the full scale of the problems. Whether Spain’s authorities have been deceitful or wilfully blind makes little difference at this point. The banks will need more capital; the government will need external help, with all the market uncertainty and strings attached that this [...]
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Global Economy Heading Downhill?
According to the JP Morgan Global Composite PMI report, “Growth of global economic activity eased sharply to a five month low in April.” The authors of the report found that on aggregate across the countries surveyed – 30 across the globe – both new order inflows and job creation fell back, leading them to the conclusion that “the world economy [...]
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What Wolfson Did Next
At around 9:00am London time this morning Lord Wolfson held a press conference to announce the five finalists in his economics prize contest. I have done a podcast discussing the prize objectives and their implications with the Spain based British blogger Matthew Bennett. You can download it here. The first thing that needs to be said about [...]
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Portugal Gradually Shuffles Its Way Towards the Front of the Debt Queue
Well, a weekend during which Greece seems to have been finally able to pass muster on its bond deal, while Mario Draghi has given the official “all clear” on the debt crisis, seems to be as good a moment as any to have a look at the country which many investors consider likely to be the next [...]
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Homeric Similes and Spanish Debt
“Nihil sapientiae odiosius acumine nimio“ (Nothing is more hateful to wisdom than excessive cleverness) Petrarch, “De Remediis utriusque Fortunae” Like Leo Messi charging his way through a packed Real Madrid defense, twisting now this way, now that, never stopping without being stopped, so did the Spanish sovereign debt surge forward, breaking directly into the red [...]
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Staring Into the Ukrainian Economic and Political Abyss
It’s been a long time now since Paul Krugman spoke of the Ukrainian economy epitomizing the arrival of what he then termed the “second great depression“, and it’s been an even longer long time since we lay awake at night dreaming about the coming conquests of the Orange Revolution. It’s also been a good time since I looked [...]
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2012 – The Year We All Learn to Live Dangerously
Well, the latest batch of EU interim growth forecasts are out, and there are few surprises after so much prior comment. The Euro Area as a whole is expected to contract, but of course within the aggregate contraction some will fare rather better than others. “The EU is set to experience stagnating GDP this year, [...]
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For Whom the Bailout Tolls
“On an optimistic view, that a deal was struck implies that neither side was ultimately willing to risk a Greek exit because they recognise that no one fully understands all the ramifications of such a decision. Under this scenario, when pressure again builds, the authorities will do the same: let Greece remain in the euro, [...]
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Quick Reality Czech
The Czech Republic is the first economy in central and eastern Europe to slide back into a full technical recession during the current downturn (evidently it is unlikely to be the last), with a 0.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter GDP decline in the last three months of 2011, after a 0.1 per cent drop in the previous [...]
