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Archive for May, 2011
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Is Italy, Not Spain, the Real Elephant in the Euro Room?
Looking through the latest round of EU GDP data, one thing is becoming increasingly obvious: when it comes to future monetary policy decisions at the ECB, and to exactly how many more interest rate hikes we are going to see, then the performance of the Italian economy is going to be critical. The growth pattern [...]
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Greece: Last Exit To Nowhere?
“Some economists, myself included, look at Europe’s woes and have the feeling that we’ve seen this movie before, a decade ago on another continent — specifically, in Argentina” – Paul Krugman: Can Europe Be Saved “Think of it this way: the Greek government cannot announce a policy of leaving the euro — and I’m sure [...]
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The Great Greek and Spanish GDP Mystery – One Hypothesis
Many an economic eyebrow must have been raised last Friday when Europe’s first quarter GDP data was released, and people discovered that the Greek economy had suddenly surged forward, rising by 0.8% over the level it had attained in the last three months of 2010 (or at a 3.2% annual rate, or faster than the [...]
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Is There Really Such A Thing As A Eurozone Credit Cycle?
America, we know, has a currency union that works, and we know why it works: because it coincides with a nation — a nation with a big central government, a common language and a shared culture. Europe has none of these things, which from the beginning made the prospects of a single currency dubious. Paul [...]
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Japan’s Economy Struggles For Air
With the arrival of the first real Japanese data since the Tsunami struck the immensity of the tragedy which Japan is passing through is only now gradually becoming apparent. Exports were down by a seasonally adjusted 7.7% in March over February, while imports were only fell by a much more modest 1.4%, with the inevitable [...]
