Russia’s Economy Slows in November
As doubts grow that in the post Dubai world Russia’s central bank will be able to sustain a great deal of momentum in its ongoing programme of interest rate reductions, we learn this week that the pace of expansion in Russia’s economy slowed back in November, following two months of steady advance in September and October. This time services activity also weakened its advance while manufacturing activity registered its second month of contraction. Yet the central bank may well show increasing restraint in lowering interest rates, even as the economy slows, the ruble rises, and bank retail lending continues to fall, having declined for nine consecutive months up to and including October, while corporate lending dropped for a second month in a row and hasn’t risen for six months (for more on the particular topic see my recent post – Are Russia’s Consumers Getting “Carried Away” With Themselves?).
While the seasonally adjusted VTB Capital Total Activity Index remained in positive territory for the fourth month running in November, the latest figure of 52.8 indicated the weakest rate of growth in three months.
The VTB Capital Monthly GDP Indicator, based on the PMI surveys for both the manufacturing and service sectors, continued to show an annual economic contraction in November, even if the the rate of decline eased for yet another month. At an annual minus 2.5%, down from a revised minus 4.0% in October, the indicator stood at its highest level since December 2008. Over the third quarter as a whole, the GDP Indicator suggested that the economy contracted by a revised 8.7% year-on-year, a better outcome than the record 9.9% fall posted during Q2. Data for the first two months of the final quarter show an average contraction of 3.3%.
By contrast the quarter-on-quarter rate slipped back to a bare 0.2%, treacherously close to the dividing line between contraction and expansion.
The outcome is not surprising when we take into account that November saw an overall deterioration in business conditions in Russian manufacturing for the second month running. Output rose only marginally, while incoming new orders fell for the first time since June. Growth of purchasing activity was maintained, but at a slow pace, while employment continued to fall. Thus the headline seasonally-adjusted Russian Manufacturing PMI remained below the no-change mark of 50.0 for the second month running, and although the November figure of 49.1 indicated only a marginal rate of deterioration, it was still slightly worse one than the 49.6 posted in October. The fall in the PMI primarily reflected slower output growth and falling new orders.
Business conditions in the Russian service sector, on the other hand, continued to improve during the month, albeit at a weaker pace than previously. The easing primarily reflected slower rates of growth in business activity and new business, which both remained well below pre-crisis levels. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures remained subdued, with input prices rising at a relatively weak rate and charges falling slightly for the second month running. The headline seasonally adjusted Russian Services PMI came in at 53.3, down on the 54.3 registered in October, and well below the historic average of 56.9, highlighting the fragility of the Russian recovery. Restricted credit continued to be a theme in this months survey responses, although sector data pointed to a stronger rise in financial intermediation activity. The rate at which incoming new business increased slowed during the month and contributed to additional spare capacity at service providers and a faster decline in outstanding business. Backlogs of work have contracted every month since September 2008, and the latest rate of decline was at the most rapid rate since July.
Originally published at Global Economy Matters and reproduced here with the author’s permission.
103 Responses to “Russia’s Economy Slows in November”
It would be interesting to see how Russia fares longer term. It has traditionally been seen as an oil state, and that trend seems to be continuing as last week it revealed its plan to invest $ 625 billion in the next 2 decades to raise oil production by 10 % and 590 billion to increase its gas output by 33%. It’s part of a broader $ 2T energy plan to develop the Russian energy sector by 2030, with Asian markets capturing much more of the country’s exports as it develops its resources in Siberia.What’s also is interesting is that the renewable energy sector in Russia is largely undeveloped although it has great potential for renewable energy resources, for example geothermal energy which is used in the Northern Caucasus.Russia is the world’s leading net energy exporter so development of its renewable energy potential is something to look out for in the future.http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKGEE5AP25J20091126
I needed to compose you a tiny observation just to give thanks yet again with your marvelous guidelines you’ve shown in this case. It was really surprisingly generous with people like you to offer freely what exactly a lot of folks might have marketed as an e-book to generate some profit on their own, and in particular given that you could have done it if you ever desired. These advice likewise served to become fantastic way to be sure that the rest have the identical dream just as my very own to figure out more and more when considering this issue. I think there are millions of more fun instances up front for many who look into your site.
Thank you so much for giving everyone an extraordinarily terrific opportunity to check tips from this web site. It is usually so useful and as well , stuffed with fun for me personally and my office mates to search the blog at minimum thrice every week to read the newest tips you have got. Not to mention, I’m just certainly fascinated considering the brilliant principles you give. Selected two points on this page are particularly the simplest I have had.
I would like to show appreciation to you just for bailing me out of such a scenario. As a result of exploring throughout the search engines and obtaining principles which were not helpful, I figured my life was done. Existing minus the answers to the issues you’ve resolved by way of your website is a serious case, and the ones that could have in a wrong way damaged my career if I hadn’t come across your website. That know-how and kindness in controlling all areas was invaluable. I don’t know what I would have done if I hadn’t discovered such a subject like this. I’m able to at this time look forward to my future. Thanks for your time very much for your skilled and effective help. I will not hesitate to recommend your web sites to any person who will need tips on this problem.
Man that was very entertaining and at the same time informative.,’”"`
What would be your next topic next week on your blog.~.;”
This page seems to recieve a great deal of visitors. How do you advertise it? It offers a nice unique spin on things. I guess having something authentic or substantial to give info on is the most important factor.
Only a few blogger would discuss this topic the way you do..:`.:
Sometimes your blog is loading slowly, better find a better host.,’:”.
Great blog post and nice discussion among the comments.~’,”;
I would really like you to become a guest poster on my blog.”,,*~
Last month, when i visited your blog i got an error on the mysql server of yours.,,.~;
I love to visit your web-blog, the themes are nice.’”‘;.
Oh i really envy the way you post topics, how i wish i could write like that..”.*:
Hey, what kind of anti-spam plugin do you use for your blog.:;*.:
Hey, what kind of anti-spam plugin do you use for your blog.”;”:*
I would really like you to become a guest poster on my blog.-:~-.
Have you tried twitterfeed on your blog, i think it would be cool.~:”";
I always visit new blog everyday and i found your blog.,~,.”
I always visit your blog everyday to read new topics.*”‘..
What would be your next topic next week on your blog.’~*-~
Your blog never ceases to amaze me, it is very well written and organized.*,.::
The color of your blog is quite great. i would love to have those colors too on my blog.-;;~’
Your blog would increase in ranking if you post more often.;”,~,
I love reading your blog because it has very interesting topics..,’`-
Your blog never ceases to amaze me, it is very well written and organized.`..,~
I love blogging and i can say that you also love blogging.:*..`
I see that you are using WordPress on your blog, wordpress is the best.’.*”‘
You are so cool man, the post on your blogs are super great.**’“
I think your blog is getting more and more visitors.,;`~”
My friend first found your blog on Google and she referred your blog to me.”,:*`
You are so cool man, the post on your blogs are super great.-~’**
I see that you are using WordPress on your blog, wordpress is the best.:-~:’
Man that was very entertaining and at the same time informative.“`-.
Your blog never ceases to amaze me, it is very well written and organized.”:’~.
The thing i like about your blog is that you always post direct to the point info.,”“~
Thanks for the great post on your blog, it really gives me an insight on this topic.-;’:-
Wow, you seem to be very knowledgable about this kind of topics.”,,*:
RSS Feeds on your blog sometimes does not work.~*,~:
I think your blog is getting more and more visitors.:-”,”
I would really like you to become a guest poster on my blog.:;`;’
Thanks for the great post on your blog, it really gives me an insight on this topic.’:`*:
Your blog would increase in ranking if you post more often.-`’;”
Sometimes your blog is loading slowly, better find a better host.;*::.
I think your blog is getting more and more visitors.~:”~.
I would really love to guest post on your blog.’`~”*
I would really love to guest post on your blog.:’”.`
Well, another blogger already posted a topic like this.~`.”`
RSS Feeds on your blog sometimes does not work.,-*`*
The way you write, you are really a professional blogger.;:’`’
I love blogging and i can say that you also love blogging.”‘:’*
Your blog is one of a kind, i love the way you organize the topics.,:*~`
What would be your next topic next week on your blog.,;*’.
I’m a blog crazed person and i love to read cool blog like yours.’-'*:
I’m a blog crazed person and i love to read cool blog like yours.:,*’-
Perhaps you should update the php server on your webhost, WordPress is kinda slow.*’,,’
I bookmared your site a couple of days ago coz your blog impresses me…”-,
Wow, you seem to be very knowledgable about this kind of topics..’,,*
Very well said, your blog says it all about that particular topic.~“.`
i stumbled upon this in google seek
Thanks for the great post on your blog, it really gives me an insight on this topic.-*.;`
Do you have a spam problem on this site; I also am a blogger, and I was wondering your situation; we have developed some nice procedures and we are looking to swap strategies with others, why not shoot me an email if interested.
I just added your RSS Feed on my RSS reader, it is so nice to read your blog.:..’`
I certainly didn’t know that. Learnt something new today! Thanks for that.
Just because I don’t care doesn’t mean I don’t fully grasp.”
I was also reading a topic like this one from another site.-*.*-
I have noticed that sensible real estate agents almost everywhere are starting to warm up to FSBO Marketing and advertising. They are realizing that it’s more than just placing a sign in the front place. It’s really in relation to building connections with these traders who one of these days will become customers. So, if you give your time and energy to helping these dealers go it alone : the “Law associated with Reciprocity” kicks in. Great blog post.
You can increase your blog visitors by having a fan page on facebook.;*.**
Thanks for taking the time to discuss this, I feel strongly about it and love learning more on this topic. If doable, as you gain expertise, would you thoughts updating your weblog with extra information? It is extremely helpful for me.
Hello there, You have done an excellent job. I’ll definitely digg it and personally recommend to my friends. I am confident they will be benefited from this website.
I always visit new blog everyday and i found your blog.*`:”;
Hey – nice blog, just looking around some blogs, seems a pretty good platform You Are using. I’m at the moment utilizing Drupal for a number of of my websites but looking to change certainly one of them over to a platform very much the same to yours as a trial run. Something specifically you would recommend about it?
Hey, found your site by accident doing a search on Google but I’ll definitely be coming back. Anyone who has lost track of time when using a computer knows the propensity to dream, the urge to make dreams come true and the tendency to miss lunch. Attributed to Tim Berners-Lee
What would be your next topic next week on your blog.”~*’
I simply wanted to thank you once again for your amazing website you have developed here. Its full of ideas for those who are seriously interested in that subject, primarily this very post. You’re really all actually sweet plus thoughtful of others plus reading your website posts is an excellent delight if you ask me. And such a generous surprise! Jeff and I will have excitement making use of your guidelines in what we should instead do in the future. Our collection of ideas is a mile long and simply put tips are going to be put to good use.
I have learned newer and more effective things from a blog post. One more thing to I have noticed is that in many instances, FSBO sellers will certainly reject a person. Remember, they might prefer to not ever use your expert services. But if you actually maintain a stable, professional partnership, offering aid and remaining in contact for four to five weeks, you will usually manage to win a discussion. From there, a listing follows. Cheers
Sometimes, blogging is a bit tiresome specially if you need to update more topics.:”;*:
Hello, Neat post. There is a problem together with your site in internet explorer, could check this IE nonetheless is the marketplace chief and a huge element of other folks will miss your great writing because of this problem.
I’m new to your blog and i really appreciate the nice posts and great layout.,:’~`
I’m a blog crazed person and i love to read cool blog like yours.`~:~~
I got what you intend, saved to bookmarks , very decent internet site .
Valuable info. Fortunate me I found your site unintentionally, and I am surprised why this accident didn’t took place earlier! I bookmarked it.
Hey – nice weblog, just looking around some blogs, appears a pretty great platform you might be making use of. I’m presently making use of WordPress for a few of my web sites but looking to alter one of them above to a platform similar to yours as being a trial run. Anything in specific you would recommend about it?
Just a fast hello and also to thank you for discussing your ideas on this page. I wound up in your weblog right after researching physical fitness connected issues on Yahoo… guess I lost track of what I had been performing! Anyway I’ll be back as soon as again inside the long term to check out your blogposts down the road. Thanks!
Always remember you’re unique, similar to everyone else!
It is really a nice and useful piece of info. I am glad that you simply shared this useful information with us. Please stay us informed like this. Thanks for sharing.
I’ve been exploring for a little bit for any high-quality articles or blog posts on this kind of area . Exploring in Yahoo I ultimately stumbled upon this site. Studying this info So i am happy to convey that I have a very good uncanny feeling I discovered exactly what I needed. I so much definitely will make certain to don’t overlook this site and give it a look on a constant.
Perhaps you should update the php server on your webhost, WordPress is kinda slow.:’*”;
Howdy! Would you mind if I share your blog with my zynga group? There’s a lot of people that I think would really enjoy your content. Please let me know. Thank you
Please don’t meddle in the matters of dragons. For thou art crunchy and taste beneficial with ketchup.
Thanks for any other informative blog. Where else may just I get that kind of information written in such a perfect manner? I have a mission that I’m simply now operating on, and I’ve been at the glance out for such info.
I will immediately take hold of your rss feed as I can’t in finding your email subscription link or newsletter service. Do you have any? Please permit me understand in order that I could subscribe. Thanks.
Wonderful job right here. I definitely enjoyed what you had to say. Keep going because you unquestionably bring a new voice to this topic. Not many people would say what youve said and still make it interesting. Properly, at least Im interested. Cant wait to see additional of this from you.
Thanks for the great post on your blog, it really gives me an insight on this topic.::`.-
Thanks for one more great piece of writing. Where else could anybody get that kind of info in such an perfect way of writing? I have a presentation next week, and I’m on the look for such information.
I’m delighted that I’ve observed this blog. Finally something not a crap, which we go through extremely frequently. The web site is lovingly serviced and saved as much as date. So it should be, thank you for sharing this with us.
The thing i like about your blog is that you always post direct to the point info.*:“”
I really enjoyed studying this web page. I will undoubtedly put you in my favorites part. My Blog: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rjYsZs-YsFs
I am glad to be a visitant of this complete site ! , regards for this rare info ! .
If at first you don’t succeed, destroy all evidence that you tried.
Hey there! Quick question that’s completely off topic. Do you know how to make your site mobile friendly? My website looks weird when viewing from my iphone 4. I’m trying to find a template or plugin that might be able to fix this problem. If you have any suggestions, please share. Cheers!
I likewise think hence , perfectly pent post! .