EconoMonitor

Don't Shoot the Messenger

  • Spain and the IMF: Round the Bend or Out of the Woods?

    “Spain has turned the corner”. With this stark statement the IMF opened it’s annual Article IV consultation report for 2014. Naturally the statement rankled, with this author among others, because at first sight it seems to be saying something which on closer reading of the report you find it isn’t. At best it’s misleading, possibly [...]

    More ›

  • Japan Inflation At A 32 Year High?

    Just in case anyone was in any doubt last weeks newspaper  headlines blared it out for us loud and clear – Japanese inflation is back, and has even hit levels last seen in 1982. (Click on image below for better viewing). In fact consumer prices in Japan rose at an annual rate of 3.4% in [...]

    More ›

  • Will Japan Re-enter Deflation in April 2015?

    Reading the most recent statements from Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda or Finance Minister Taro Aso you would get the impression that the days of deflation are now well and truly numbered in Japan. Martin Schulz, economist at Fujitsu Research Institute in Tokyo, goes even further. “Deflation is over in Japan,” he told Bloomberg [...]

    More ›

  • Secular Stagnation Part II – On Bubble Business Bound

    “I now suspect that the kind of moderate economic policy regime…… that by and large lets markets work, but in which the government is ready both to rein in excesses and fight slumps – is inherently unstable.” Paul Krugman – The Instability of Moderation “Conventional macreconomic theory leaves us in a very serious problem, because [...]

    More ›

  • The “Hot Labour” Phenomenon

    Strong growth. Rising real estate prices. Rapid job creation. Surging immigration. This list sums up the Switzerland of 2014 down to a tee. However, it also sounds like a description of what things were like in Spain in 2007 – shortly before the country’s economy fell off a cliff. What follows is a conversation between [...]

    More ›

  • Secular Stagnation Part 1 – Paul Krugman’s Bicycling Problem

    “What’s really happening fast is the demographic transition, with Europe very quickly turning Japanese.” Paul Krugman – For Bonds, This Time is Different Ever since Larry Summers gave his game-changing speech at last autumn’s IMF research conference the back-and-forth flow of arguments about secular stagnation has been almost non-stop (indeed Larry himself now has a [...]

    More ›

  • Spain: The Land Where Incipient Deflation Becomes Good News For Headline GDP (Updated 29/05/2014).

    The Spanish National Statistics Office (INE) today published the first detailed estimate of Spain’s Q1 GDP. Basically they confirm the gist of the original Bank of Spain numbers (see my report of 25 March below) although there are some important nuances. In my earlier report, I stressed that Spain’s Q1 surge was as much a [...]

    More ›

  • Mario Draghi’s Ongoing Faustian Pact

    Word has it that Mario Draghi is busily working up a new version of his “whatever it takes” methodology. This time the objective is not saving the Eurozone, but maintaining the region’s inflation at or near the ECBs official 2% inflation objective. The first time round the President of the Euro Area’s central bank had [...]

    More ›

  • Greek Re-entry (or Grentry) Not The Game Changer Many Think It Is

    There is no doubt that Greece’s recent bond sale was an exciting and even invigorating moment for many people. The WSJ’s Simon Nixon, for example, called it “a symbolically important moment for the euro crisis”. Reuters’ Marius Zaharia suggested the speed of the come back could even be a game-changer for the heavily indebted southern [...]

    More ›

  • On The Trail Of Italian Debt

    Looking for trends and correlations in that landslide of economic data which arrives, day in and day out, on our desks is normally something akin to trying to find a needle in a very large and raggedy haystack. From time to time, however, some things are just to obvious not to be noticed, like the [...]

    More ›

Most Read | Featured | Popular

Blogger Spotlight

Otaviano Canuto

Otaviano Canuto is Senior Advisor on BRICS Economies in the Development Economics Department, World Bank, a new position established by President Kim to bring a fresh research focus to this increasingly critical area. He also has an extensive academic background, serving as Professor of Economics at the University of Sao Paulo and University of Campinas (UNICAMP) in Brazil.

Economics Blog Aggregator

Our favorite economics blogs aggregated.