.@auaurelija and "The basic rule of storms is they continue until the imbalance that created them is corrected." /The Day After Tomorrow/
10 minutes ago
Roubini Topic Archive: Emerging Markets
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Will the Dutch Disease Kill Hopes Raised by Colombia’s Free Trade Agreement?
After a torturous journey through Congress, the United States-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement (CTPA), first signed in 2006, came into effect on May 15 of this year. The agreement has raised high hopes in Colombia, for which the United States is by far the largest trading partner. However, while the CTPA was fighting its way through [...]
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Behind the Russian Protests: Rising Economic Expectations and a Business Leader Turned Activist
Last week saw another mass protest in Moscow, the first since Vladimir Putin has returned to the presidency and undertaken tough new measures to curb the opposition. As seen on Western TV, the demonstrations appear to be dominated by the colorful flags of monarchists, anarchists, communists, and other extremist groups, but those images are misleading. [...]
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Why the Russian Economy Is No Longer a Big Plus for Putin
Vladimir Putin’s decision to return to the presidency has touched off a wave of protests in Russia. The motives behind the protests are partly social and political (see this recent post), but economics also plays a role in Putin’s fading popularity. It is far from clear that the present regime will be able to continue [...]
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Best Economics News Story of 2011: Dickens Meets Hayek in a Mumbai Slum
My one-man committee has met and made a decision: The award for best economics news story of the year goes to Jim Yardley of The New York Times for an article titled “In One Slum, Misery, Work, Politics and Hope,” published in the December 29 issue. It is a story about Dharavi, Mumbai’s most famous [...]
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What Do the Russian Protesters Want? One Observer’s View of Problems and Needed Reforms
Commentators have compared the recent Russian protests to those of Tahrir Square and Occupy Wall Street. There are differences, of course, but certain similarities stand out. For one thing, these recent movements differ from, say, Ukraine’s Orange Revolution, in that none of them has a clear leader. Instead, they have coalesced around negatives: Egypt without [...]
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Econ 101, Hayek, and Why We Are Losing the War Against Drugs
Last week The New York Times reported that the drug cartels, after shaking the political and economic structures of Colombia and Mexico to their foundations, are moving into Central America. Just one more sign, as if we needed it, that the United States is losing its endless war on drugs.
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Demographics and Politics, as Much as Floods and Security, Undermine Pakistan’s Economy
In a recent White House meeting with President Asif Ali Zadari of Pakistan, US President Barack Obama underscored the importance of the US-Pakistani relationship and emphasized continued US support for the country. Unfortunately, the prospects for a payoff to US strategic commitments in Pakistan remain clouded by deep economic weaknesses that have their origins as much in demographics and political factors as in the more widely publicized natural disasters and security issues.
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The Impossible Trinity: Why Latin America Hates QE2
Latin America is up in arms over QE2. Brazil’s finance minister, Guido Mantega, sees the Fed’s program of quantitative easing as a form of currency manipulation on par with China’s efforts to maintain an undervalued yuan. We hear dark talk of currency wars and threats to raise the issue with the G20, the WTO, and anyone else who will listen. Why all the anger directed against what most people in the United States view as a purely domestic policy that hopes to reboot a sluggish recovery? Why wouldn’t that be welcomed by US trading partners in Latin America and everywhere?
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If a Stronger Yuan Is Good, Can a Weaker Dollar Be Bad?
One of the top themes for 2010 in economics, politics, and diplomacy was the damage being done to the U.S. economy by an undervalued Chinese yuan. As the yuan began to appreciate in the second half of the year, slowly in nominal terms but more rapidly in real terms, everyone cheered. At the same time the yuan appreciated, the dollar depreciated, not just relative to the yuan, but to all foreign currencies on average. The broad weakness of the dollar was welcomed much less enthusiastically. Words like “unpleasant” and “grim” tended to be used instead.
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Does Argentina’s “Nike Effect” Hold Lessons for Europe?
What happens when a country faces forced austerity, a banking crisis, a risk of sovereign default, and pressure to abandon a currency peg it has sworn to be eternal and unbreakable? Several European countries are in this position today, but there is nothing really new about it. It’s all happened before, most recently in Argentina in the winter of 2001-02. So what became of Argentina? Are there any lessons there for today’s Europe?
