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CPI Unchanged on Falling Energy Prices; Deflation Risk Begins to Edge Up
The latest inflation data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show the CPI unchanged in June, following a 0.3 percent decrease in May. For the full year, the CPI has risen just 1.7 percent, well below the Fed’s target of 2 percent. Since the beginning of June, an important indicator of the risk of Japanese-style [...]
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The Illusory Economic Benefits of Bringing Back the Draft
Writing in Tuesday’s New York Times, Thomas E. Ricks makes a plea for reinstating the draft. His argument is largely based on supposed economic benefits that I find questionable. Here is why. Ricks’ proposal would expand the draft beyond the military to make it a form of near-universal national service. Under his plan, combat units [...]
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More Weak Job Data: Have we Reached the Natural Rate? Is this as Good as it Gets?
The June report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows continued weak growth of payroll jobs. Just 80,000 new jobs were reported for the month, while an upward revision to the May data was cancelled by a downward revision for April. The unemployment rate remains stuck at 8.2 percent. What is more, the broad measure [...]
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The Moral Limits of Markets: When is Standing in Line Better than Paying a Price?
In his book What Money Can’t Buy: The Moral Limits of Markets, Harvard Professor Michael J. Sandel invites us to engage in a public debate on the proper role of markets in society. It is a question, he says, to which economists do not give enough thought. I agree. I am happy to join the [...]
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Latest Data Show U.S. Corporate Profits Falling Due to Global Woes While GDP Growth Remains Sluggish
The final estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows U.S. real GDP growing at a sluggish 1.9 percent annual rate in Q1 2012, the same as in the second estimate released at the end of May. Nominal GDP grew at a 3.9 percent annual rate. That is slightly faster than previously estimated but still [...]
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Fourteen Minutes a Day: What the Great Recession has Done to the Way We Spend our Time
Writers of economics textbooks like to remind us that official employment and GDP data are not very good measures of how hard we work or of the goods and services we produce, but what alternatives do we have? One little-noticed alterative is the annual American Time Use Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which [...]
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Behind the Russian Protests: Rising Economic Expectations and a Business Leader Turned Activist
Last week saw another mass protest in Moscow, the first since Vladimir Putin has returned to the presidency and undertaken tough new measures to curb the opposition. As seen on Western TV, the demonstrations appear to be dominated by the colorful flags of monarchists, anarchists, communists, and other extremist groups, but those images are misleading. [...]
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Latest Data Show US Export Drive is Faltering
The latest international trade data for the United States show that the country’s export drive, which has been a bright spot in an otherwise weak recovery, is now faltering. Nominal exports of goods grew a modest 1.6 percent in Q1 2012; a broader measure of exports that includes goods, services, and income receipts grew just [...]
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All Major US Inflation Measures Fall Below Fed Targets in May
The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show sharply lower inflation. The headline number, the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) fell at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.31 percent in May, its fastest rate of decline since 2008, when the economy was still contracting. Even without seasonal adjustment, the [...]
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Globalization and Inequality: Is there a Superstar Effect, and if so, What does it Mean?
If two things happen at the same time, it is natural to think that one may cause the other. A case in point is the much-discussed linkage between the growth of global trade and the increased inequality of income distribution. The following charts show one way of representing these two trends for the United States. [...]












