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Looming Demise of Wind Power Subsidy Shows the Need to Rethink Both Energy and Tax Policy
Wind power has been a success story of green energy. After several years of rapid growth, it now accounts for about 3 percent of all electricity produced in the United States. It has benefitted from federal support, but that support is scheduled to end on December 31, throwing the industry into a crisis of layoffs [...]
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Could QE3 Cause the Fed to Go Broke?
Each time the Fed undertakes a new program of quantitative easing, questions arise about the possible impact on its solvency. I addressed that concern in November 2010, at the time QE2 was announced. Here is an updated version of that post that looks at the solvency issue in the context of QE3. The Fed’s new [...]
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Does the August Inflation Spike Mean QE3 was a Mistake?
One day after the Fed announced a new program of quantitative easing (QE3), the BLS reported that headline inflation spiked to an annual rate of 7.44 percent in August. Does that mean that QE3 was a mistake? Superficially, it might seem so. After all, the announced justification for QE3 was that both parts of the [...]
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Quantitative Easing: A Tutorial
On September 13, 2012, the Fed announced a further program of quantitative easing, or QE. The program, which we will all call by its unofficial name, QE3, will consist of purchases of some $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities each month plus continuation of some existing asset purchase programs. We are told that QE is the [...]
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August Job Numbers are a Disappointment for Democrats
The August job numbers released today by the BLS will come as a disappointment, especially to Democrats who were hoping for a strong headline number during their convention week. The U.S. economy created just 96,000 new payroll jobs last month. An increase of 103,000 private-sector jobs was partly offset by a loss of 7,000 government [...]
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Simplicity vs. Compexity, Goodhart’s Law, and the Financial Regulator’s Dilemma
One of the most interesting papers to come out of the Jackson Hole conference this year, both in title and content, was “The Dog and the Frisbee.” The paper, presented by Andrew G. Haldane, Executive Director for Financial Stability at the Bank of England and co-authored by Vasileios Madouros, an economist at the same institution, [...]
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Do the Latest GDP and Profit Data Justify Tax Cuts for ‘Job Creators’?
This week’s second estimate of US GDP shows a disappointing Q2 growth rate of 1.7 percent, just slightly faster than the 1.5 percent of the advance estimate released a month ago (see chart). These latest data ensure that weak GDP growth and what to do about it will remain major issues in the presidential election [...]
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Court Rejects EPA Cross-State Air Pollution Rule. Where to Next?
Last week, the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia rejected an EPA rule known as the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR). The rule was supposed to have gone into effect at the beginning of 2012, but the same court had previously stayed its implementation on procedural grounds. Last week’s ruling is [...]
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Latest CBO Budget Projections Underline Need for Goldilocks Budget Deal
The latest analysis from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) shows a sharp divergence between a baseline projection and an alternative fiscal scenario for the U.S. economy. To put it in language a child could understand, the baseline projection is too cold while the alternative scenario is too hot. It is clear from the report that [...]
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Economists Should Love Paul Ryan’s Support of Policy Rules—but are they the Right Rules?
Economists love the idea of rules for monetary and fiscal policy. Many politicians hate them, preferring the discretion to do whatever seems like a good idea at the time. For that reason, if no other, economists should love Paul Ryan, an atypical politician who supports policy rules. But there is a catch—are the rules that [...]


