EconoMonitor

Ed Dolan's Econ Blog

  • As Jobs Surge, Term Structure of Unemployment Remains Distorted

    The US economy added 321,000 payroll jobs in November, the best in almost three years. Strong upward revisions to September and October numbers boosted the 12-month gain to 2,756,000, a new high for the recovery. The official unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.8 percent. The broad unemployment rate, U-6, which takes into account discouraged workers [...]

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  • Universal Basic Income vs. Unemployment Insurance: Which is the Better Safety Net?

    A universal basic income (UBI) and unemployment insurance (UI) are two possible forms of social insurance for an economy in which job loss is a significant risk. Which works better? How generous should either program be? Would a combination of the two be best of all? These are the questions that Alice Fabre, Stéphane Pallage, [...]

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  • Oil Prices are Down Again—Did We Miss Our Best Chance for a Better Energy Policy?

    Oil is down again. The price of Brent crude, which moves US gasoline prices, is below $100 a barrel for the first time (save a single month) in five years. Why am I not celebrating? No, I don’t own a portfolio of oil stocks. Instead, I am afraid that the recent fall in world oil [...]

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  • Fourth Quarter Off to a Good Start with Strong Job Gains, Falling Unemployment

    The first major report on the health of the US economy for the fourth quarter of 2014 showed continued gains in the job market. Payroll jobs were up by more than 200,000 for the ninth month in a row. With upward revisions to August and September data, the twelve-month jobs gain was 2,646,000. Annual job [...]

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  • What Quantitative Easing Did Not Do: Three Revealing Charts

    The Fed has declared an official end to quantitative easing. It is a logical time to ask, did QE work? Danielle Kurtzleben gives the honest answer in a recent post on Vox: “It’s very, very hard to know.” Still, we do know three things that QE did not do. These are worth pointing out, especially [...]

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  • US GDP Grows 3.5 Percent in Q3 for Best Six-Month Gain of the Recovery

    The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that US GDP grew at a 3.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2014. Combined with the strong 4.6 percent showing in Q2, the six-month average of 4.05 percent is the best half-year performance of the recovery. Even including the 2.1 percent annual rate of decrease [...]

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  • Five Reasons Not to Fear Deflation: Which Ones Make Sense?

    In a post earlier this week, I explained why a majority of economists fear deflation. They argue that deflation disrupts the operation of financial markets and labor markets in a way that risks touching off a downward spiral. At the same time, they say, deflation weakens the power of monetary policy to reverse the downward [...]

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  • Why Should Europe (or Anyone Else) Fear Deflation?

    This is the first of a two-part series on deflation, which continues with “Five Reasons Not to Fear Inflation: Which Ones Make Sense?” Europe is fearful as it teeters on the brink of deflation. As the chart shows, September consumer prices in the eurozone were just 0.3 percent higher than in the same month a [...]

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  • The Economic Future (if Any) of “Novorossiya”

    Last May, I posted an item on the economic situation in the rebellious regions of Eastern Ukraine, or “Novorossiya” (New Russia), to use the term increasingly favored by separatists and  their Russian sponsors. Novorossiya was the name of a province of Tsarist Russia that occupied much of the southern part of present-day Ukraine, stretching all [...]

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  • Strong Job Growth, Big Revisions Send US Unemployment Below 6 Percent

    The US unemployment rate fell to 5.9 percent in September, dropping below 6 percent for the first time in more than six years. The decrease was powered, in part, by strong growth of payroll jobs. Payroll jobs increased by 248,000 in September, well above the average for the year to date. In the same report, [...]

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Emre Deliveli The Kapali Carsi

Emre Deliveli is a freelance consultant, part-time lecturer in economics and columnist. Previously, Emre worked as economist for Citi Istanbul, covering Turkey and the Balkans. He was previously Director of Economic Studies at the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey in Ankara and has has also worked at the World Bank, OECD, McKinsey and the Central Bank of Turkey. Emre holds a B.A., summa cum laude, from Yale University and undertook his PhD studies at Harvard University, in Economics.

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