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Roubini Topic Archive: Trade and External Balance
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Another Summer of Discontent: The Four Factors that Explain Why What We’re Doing Isn’t Working
Here is what we know about the global economy given the experiences of the past four years: There is a global insufficiency of demand relative to an immense oversupply of labor and productive capacity. The imbalances between high-wage/current-account-deficit/balance-sheet-indebted nations and lower-wage, surplus nations have produced a glut of savings in the latter, relative to the opportunities [...]
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The Third Wave: Is America, Once Again, Pricing Itself Out of a Job?
Dear readers: I am in the process of writing a book for Penguin’s Portfolio imprint that incorporates many of the subjects and views I have presented over the years in Dan Alpert’s 2 Cents and in my writing for Westwood Capital, LLC. Accordingly, I have had little time to blog of late. Nevertheless, last week’s [...]
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Earth to Paul Krugman
This past Sunday, Paul Krugman penned a screed in the New York Times Magazine (entitled, somewhat unflatteringly in my opinion, “Earth to Ben Bernanke”) that expanded on the content of an ongoing debate in the economics blogosphere over the contents of the mind of Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke. Professor Krugman has posited for months [...]
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Tinkerbell Economics – The Confidence Fairy, Pixie Dust and a Sleeping Dragon
While we may be hours away from a partial (and certainly a stopgap) agreement in the talks among the Greek government, the troika and private sector creditors, it is doubtful that a deal will emerge in a fully constructed fashion that will survive its application in the real economy. It is likely that the only common view amongst [...]
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On Sticky Wages and What Happens when Inflation is No Longer an Alternative
Over the past weekend, on his blog on nytimes.com Paul Krugman published a piece entitled “Lessons from Europe” in which Paul approvingly cites a (Oxford economics professor) Kevin O’Rourke article on the EU summit, in which Prof. O’Rourke lays out a very correct argument as to why internal devaluation will not work in the Eurozone [...]
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Under the Covers with Gross Domestic Product – What Might be Missing from Santa’s Sleigh
I spent most of yesterday, like many of you, enjoying the “Beautiful Day” response of the markets to the Merkozy Miracle (yes, Angela did a good job, of course it’s a default, the creditors got away with a bit more than they expected, the EFSF structure is not [yet?] viable, CDS may still trigger but [...]
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Dear Paul (Krugman) Letter: Inflation Would be Dandy – But Try to Make it Happen
A couple of days ago, Paul Krugman published a blog post in which he slammed a column that his fellow Paul (Volcker) had written for The New York Times in which he, unsurprisingly, warned of the dangers of inflation. While I agree with Professor Krugman that inflation today is no danger, and would arguably be [...]
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The Final Act of ‘The Tragedy of the EMU’
I have been hard at work on a major paper and haven’t had a moment to blog. But I did want to comment on the European denouement. This final act will have many scenes, and we will likely see some significant plot twists along the way. But here is where we are at as the [...]
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On the S&P Downgrade of the United States of America
Standard & Poor’s – a private company – designated, but not regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission of the United States as a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Agency (NRSRO) – downgraded the government that provides the rating agency with its entire franchise. Perhaps the most incredible example of biting the hand that feeds you [...]
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The U.S., Europe and China – a summary of my macro views
I was recently asked to lay out my assessments on the economies of the United States, Europe and China – in short form – for a televised panel discussion I will be taking part in this week. It occurred to me that I might share my thoughts with readers of Two Cents: United States The [...]
