Roubini Topic Archive: Asia/Pacific
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On Sticky Wages and What Happens when Inflation is No Longer an Alternative
Over the past weekend, on his blog on nytimes.com Paul Krugman published a piece entitled “Lessons from Europe” in which Paul approvingly cites a (Oxford economics professor) Kevin O’Rourke article on the EU summit, in which Prof. O’Rourke lays out a very correct argument as to why internal devaluation will not work in the Eurozone [...]
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Under the Covers with Gross Domestic Product – What Might be Missing from Santa’s Sleigh
I spent most of yesterday, like many of you, enjoying the “Beautiful Day” response of the markets to the Merkozy Miracle (yes, Angela did a good job, of course it’s a default, the creditors got away with a bit more than they expected, the EFSF structure is not [yet?] viable, CDS may still trigger but [...]
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The Flight of the Doves: Money, Spending, Employment, Inflation, Disinflation and the Need to Compete in a Changed World
U.S. government interventions in the economy, initially aimed at arresting financial free-fall, and swiftly followed by additional measures targeted at spurring an economic recovery, have been quite successful with regard to the former goal. But such policies have been notably unsuccessful at restarting activity that can be described as anything more than tenuous and – [...]
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Welcome to Dan Alpert’s Two Cents on EconoMonitor.com
Welcome to Dan Alpert’s Two Cents on EconoMonitor.com. This blog will give you access to material I publish at Westwood Capital, LLC – the New York-based investment bank I co-founded in 1995 – as well as periodic musings that will be posted only here (generally derived from my ongoing conversations with economists, policy experts, investors [...]
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Some Perspective on the Roiling Markets and an Allusion to Great Literature
Toto pulled the curtain to reveal the Wizard of Oz and he ballooned back to Kansas – sometimes exogenous events set off the inevitable change in circumstances that are otherwise unsustainable.
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On China and the Yuan
China’s announcement of its intention to resume Yuan exchange rate flexibility is very good news for China, welcome news to President Obama and Treasury Secretary Geithner, and almost completely irrelevant to recovery of the U.S. economy.
To achieve equilibrium with emerging markets (over anything shorter than a generation’s growth timeline), sufficient for the developed nations to be competitive with the low cost BRIC countries – four times more populous – would require either massive appreciation in the value of the currencies of those nations (which the Chinese, at least, will not permit) or relative deflation in the wages, the prices of goods and services, and the real assets of the developed nations. The latter still appears more likely than the former, despite this past weekend’s announcement.
