EconoMonitor

Dan Alpert's Two Cents

Putting a Floor Under American Homes: How Low Do We Go?

Highlights

  • Current estimates of total deterioration in home prices run the gamut from “we’re almost through this” to “we’re only in the early innings.” Westwood has concluded the nation is in the middle of the sixth inning of home repricing, with the ballgame having started later in some markets and earlier in others.
  • Westwood expects the drop in home prices to ultimately reflect the restoration of affordability and a roughly comparable value proposition relative to the alternative of renting.
  • Westwood has just completed a small-sample survey of single-family home prices in the 20 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), surveyed as components of the S&P Case-Shiller Index, to assess the gap between the after-tax carrying costs of owning and renting comparable homes.
  • Based on our research, which reflects the recently released Case-Shiller Index data (May 2008), Westwood has concluded the logical sustainable floor for single-family values is approximately 10.8% below current home prices as of July 2008, reflecting a total peak-to-trough decline of 28.2% in the value of single-family housing stock across the nation.
  • There are, however, substantial variations among the 20 MSAs. Our sample size at the MSA level is small and, unlike our conclusions at the national level, not scientific from a statistical point of view as to each individual MSA.
  • We therefore, on both the national and MSA levels, contrast our results with broader statistical data on historic measures of local home prices as a multiple of local rents–developing some interesting correlations.
  • Westwood is increasing its earlier estimate of the total cost to mortgage lenders from the housing crisis to $1.25 trillion from our estimate in Q1 of $1 trillion. We may still be shy of the mark; this figure excludes the “knock-on effects” of the housing and credit crises, discussed toward the end of this report.

Overview

Since we began to publicly release commentary and data on the housing and credit bubbles early last year, clients and the media have repeatedly asked us one question more often than any other: “How low do we go?”

After gathering data in July, we found that the likely floor for national housing values is 10.8% below prevailing home prices, reflecting a total peak-to-trough decline of 28.2% in the value single-family housing stock. There would be material economic resistance to permanent repricing below that level (although some markets may temporarily overshoot the mark). Across price points, however, we have discerned trends that reflect the possibility of stabilization at varying levels of decline, both regionally and between lower- and higher-priced homes.

We are voracious consumers of Case-Schiller and OFHEO monthly data releases on home prices, and have utilized and produced a variety of models to project the likely future reduction in home values. Some of the best-known models, however, are difficult for the average consumer to comprehend, and they produce conflicting conclusions. Many projections also use econometric inputs that commingle condominium, co-op, and two- or three-family residences with larger-ticket single-family homes—or, in the case of the OFHEO data, specifically reflect housing qualifying for GSE mortgages. This skews almost all major projections of price correction in the housing sector—and ours are no different. Accordingly, we regularly adjust our models to accommodate various informational needs.

This report focuses on the largest homeowner demographic: owners of single family (detached or attached), which account for more than 85% of all owner-occupied and 30% of all rented homes. Instead of relying on government data or Case-Shiller data, Westwood went (virtually) right into each of the 20 Case-Shiller MSAs and sourced our own data on home prices and rental levels. Our goal was fairly simple: to assess the gap between the after-tax carrying costs of home ownership and renting comparable homes. Our thesis is equally straightforward: On average, housing prices will decline to a level at which a consumer, in any given market or neighborhood, achieves similar economic returns (and bears equivalent carrying costs) in buying or renting (“rent parity”). Note that we say “on average,” as renting is often a higher cost method of obtaining housing at lower income levels and housing prices (for no other reason than the demand for cheaper housing by those who lack the resources to buy a home).

The unprecedented bubble in home prices began, statistically, in 1997, but massively accelerated after 2000. For much of the period before the bubble, in many regions of the country, the carrying costs of owning a home were actually lower than those of renting one. Consequently, calculating a bottom by means of achieving rent parity, however logical, may understate the level of expected decline in some markets. We are also dealing with small sample sizes at the MSA level – too small, on their own, to draw precise conclusions on individual markets. In addition to rent parity, therefore, we also reviewed historic and bubble-period “price-to-rent ratios” in each Case-Shiller MSA. Price-to-rent ratios are home prices expressed as a multiple of equivalent rental cost. We did this on a historic basis dating back to 1986, based on data kindly provided by Moody’s Economy.com, to identify the relatively static level of home prices to rental costs and to (i) test our hypothesis regarding rent parity as an appropriate objective for the bottoming out of the housing market, and (ii) detect and disclose anomalies among the 20 MSAs studied. Our review of both forms of data delivered relatively consistent results, indicating that our expectations of the repricing levels for single-family homes are both reasonable from a market perspective, on the national level, and consistent with history.

Finally, we present certain assumptions and calculations regarding the direct impact of the housing bubble’s deflation on homeowners and mortgagees. In addition to the erosion of trillions of dollars of home equity, housing repricing will continue to result in the evaporation of more than $1 trillion of mortgage debt. Toward the end of this report, we present our rough calculation of the magnitude of these losses, together with several factors that may mitigate the exacerbation of the expected losses.

Westwood’s Assumptions and Methods

To make real-time assessments of conditions in the 20 Case-Shiller MSAs in July, Westwood conducted a survey of homes available for sale and rental in each. Using brokerage listings, we chose four homes, all in suburban locations, from each MSA central business district. (For example, in the New York metropolitan area, homes were selected in Nassau and Westchester Counties; in New Jersey, we used Bergen and Somerset Counties). One home at or below the median price for the MSA was selected. Median prices include non-single-family residences (i.e., condos or multiple-family homes; so often, there is little to choose from in the way of single-family homes at or below the median). The second, third and fourth homes were selected at price points approximately 200%, 300% and 400% of the price of the first home. We weren’t orthodox in keeping to an exact degree of separation between price points, inasmuch as we attempted to secure a reasonable variety of regional and price-point differentiation in an admittedly small pool. Naturally, some selection bias is inherent in our readings of the markets by virtue of our having selected homes only within a core band of the markets, and homes that presented us with good rental comparables. At the MSA level (as opposed to our national results) Westwood’s limited samples are not, statistically speaking, relevant – but we believe them to be a fair illustration of the “facts on the ground” as we observed them.

Because we were using brokerage listings, we concluded it would be reasonable to assume that asking prices were still materially higher than the prices at which houses were actually selling (despite there having been substantial price readjustments to date). In addition, we felt we needed to reflect the continued anticipated decline in the Case-Shiller numbers as of May (the latest data available) in bringing the index forward to our comparison period of July. Thus, to be conservative, when selecting homes at each price point, we knocked 12.5% off of the asking prices across the board. Had we not done this, the degree of expected continued decline in home prices that resulted from our study would have been substantially greater when comparing the carrying costs of the selected residences with the rental cost of like-kind properties. We tested several variables in this regard and concluded that a 12.5% adjustment was most realistic, giving effect to the recent 1.46% pace of the last three months’ declines in the Case-Shiller 20 MSA index (for the two-month differential) and the expected gap between asking and closing prices in today’s inventory-rich market.

The next step was to find rental residences most similar to the for-sale residences we had selected. This proved easier than we had expected, given the large number of rental residences available. (One of the issues that may put further downward pressure on home prices is an increasing inventory of rentals, in addition to the hugely increased inventory of for-sale housing, a factor we concluded to be too complicated to include in our calculations). In all cases, we made certain the rental residences were in the same neighborhoods and school districts as the companion, for-sale homes. Each rental home was also selected based in it being relatively the same size and having similar amenities and other features as the home with which it was matched. In many cases, we were able to identify identical home models in the same developments as the for-sale residence. We did not adjust the asking rent downward—again, to make the most conservative assumption with regard to the comparison that follows.

To arrive at the carrying costs of the for-sale homes, for purposes of comparing that carrying cost to the rental cost, we used the following assumptions:

• Mortgage Financing: 80% of purchase price, 30-year amortization, 6.5% interest1 • Down payment: 20% of purchase price • Real Estate Taxes: Actual per-broker listing or municipal data • Annual Maintenance: 1% of sales price (expenses borne by landlords, if rentals) • Cost of Equity: 5% of down payment (foregone return on cash otherwise invested) • Tax Rate: 32% (used in computing tax benefits of homeownership)

The calculation of the carrying cost of a sample home used in our analysis, located in Spring Valley, CA, in the San Diego MSA, compared to the cost of an equivalent rental home, is set forth below:

image002_640_05.png Appendix A contains all of the above data, as well as rental comparisons for the universe of 80 for-sale homes and 80 rental homes we studied. In each case, we computed the decline in home prices necessary to arrive at rental parity, using the above methodology.

Finally, we evaluated historical levels of home price to rent ratios (“P/R Ratio”) from 1986 to date, with data provided to us by Moody’s Economy.com. We calculated the average P/R Ratios for each MSA during the period from 1988 through 2000. Although this period included the mini-bubble of the late 1980’s, when prices rose to a P/R Ratio of just over 15x nationally, and the late 1990’s tech bubble when P/R Ratios rose to nearly 16x, the period average P/R Ratio of 14.4x was reasonably consistent with data from earlier periods. We then compared the pre-bubble average P/R Ratio for each MSA, and on a weighted average basis across the 20 MSA’s, with the P/R Ratios that would be consistent with rent parity in those markets and across the pool and calculated any variance.

Again, while we can be statistically confident, at the MSA level, of the P/R Ratio data at the peak of the bubble and the average P/R Ratios from 1988 through 2000 as shown below (and the national average data for all the columns below), the rent parity calculations at the MSA level are based on our limited samples and statistically less reliable.

image004_03.png

Heading Back to the Future

Our survey illustrates that in order to be reconciled with rental costs, home prices nationwide need to fall a total of 28.2% from their peak values. This equates to a decline of about 10.8% from home prices based on the last Case-Shiller Index data (May ’08), which have already fallen nationally by 17.4%. In other words, we are about 17.4% through a total decline of 28.2%, or about 61.7% of the way toward stabilization—in baseball terms, the middle of the sixth inning. As to the foregoing analogy, note that we are talking about the repricing of single-family homes only, and are not including the additional knock-on effects of the crisis, such as impairments in commercial real estate, consumer credit and financial institutions—which will likely set back the game of getting to recovery.

image006_02.png

Home prices are inexorably heading “back to the future”—a return to the historic norms without regard to the era of irrational exuberance and easy money. Accordingly, our check on our rental-parity calculations required that they reasonably corresponded to the Price/Rent Ratio for the pre-bubble period. On a national level, the two calculations almost eerily corresponded—exactly. As set forth on the above graph, the P/R Ratio during this most recent housing bubble rose from the pre-bubble average of 14.4x to as high as 26.1x at the end of 2005. While the P/R Ratio for the 20 Case-Shiller MSAs has fallen to about 22x to March 2008, at rent parity we believe they would need to return to the 14.4x pre-bubble average level.

The table below is a summary of our findings and projections, listed by MSA and averages for the 20 MSAs2 :

image008_512_01.png

In any statistical survey, the devil is in the details. As the above table illustrates, each of the 20 MSAs has its own story to tell (both to date and on an anticipated decline basis, going forward). Clearly, some of the markets will fall substantially more than our expected average national decline, and others are not going to see much in the way of additional deterioration. As with everything in real estate, local issues are more relevant than national trends, although the bubble was experienced nearly universally.

For background, however, the graph in Appendix B illustrates the differing historic Price/Rent Ratio trajectories for each of the 20 Case-Shiller MSAs.

Some markets will undoubtedly overshoot our anticipated levels of stabilization; others may be bailed out sooner by unanticipated population, industrial and financial shifts. We are confident, however, that the forces of the market—absent the existence of price-escalating financing that disconnects price from fundamental value—will return housing prices to their historical norms in most markets. Ultimately, rents and personal incomes determine home value, over the long term, in any market. To complete this thought, we set forth below a graph of rents and median incomes, adjusted for inflation, from 1987 to the bubble’s peak, as juxtaposed against real home prices. Nothing more need be said.

image010_512.png

Converting Home Price Declines to Mortgage Loan Losses

As a matter of mathematics, it is pretty simple to offer up a calculation of the total wealth eliminated by the ongoing deflation of the housing bubble. At the peak of the bubble, the value of all U.S. homes was approximately $20 trillion. A decline of 28.2% from the peak therefore would eliminate $5.6 trillion (a big number, to be sure) from home values. Most of this amount represents homeowner equity, which will have been reduced, on average, by 62.7% (a very big slice) based on the $11 trillion of mortgage debt outstanding at the end of 2006—up from $5.1 trillion outstanding at the beginning of the decade. (Yes, we added nearly $1 trillion of new mortgage debt each year during the bubble.) But unfortunate as that is, and as damaging as it is to our consumer economy and the now-long-gone wealth effect, it does not begin to tell the story with regard to mortgage losses.

The mortgage story, and its impact on our financial institutions, is far more troubling to economic and market observers. The most important issue to consider is that only 67% of U.S. homes have mortgages (51.75 million of the total of 77.7 million owned homes). Assuming the homes with mortgages are worth proportionately the same as homes without them, this indicates the collateral for the $11 trillion of outstanding mortgages at the peak was worth $13.4 trillion. Take the same 28.2% decline in value on that pool of collateral, and the collateral will be worth only $9.6 trillion. And that leaves mortgage lenders short by some $1.4 trillion in collateral support for their mortgage loans, or 12.7% of mortgages outstanding, on average (the “Collateral Deficiency”). See the calculation below:

image012_512.png

The above calculation of the amount by which mortgagors will be underwater, on average, requires three adjustments to arrive at expected losses to mortgagees (banks and other financial institutions). The first adjustment is to appreciate that mortgages are not spread evenly over all mortgaged homes; some homes are mortgaged for well below the average loan-to-value ratio. Homes belonging to our older or retired citizens generally have little or no outstanding debt, while other homes, after the 28.5% reduction in value from the peak, would be mortgaged for amounts well in excess of 100% of their value. Common sense indicates that homes purchased and financed during the bubble are more leveraged than homes with mortgages dating back to before the price rise (mitigated, to some extent perhaps, by the enormous number of refinancings and HELOC mortgage loan withdrawals during the bubble years). Accordingly, the amount by which the pool of mortgaged homes is actually “underwater” needs to be skewed upward by a factor reflecting the degree to which a large number of mortgaged homes are underwater by more than the average amount of Collateral Deficiency.

The second adjustment requires consideration of the costs of collection on a defaulted mortgage. These costs include legal expenses related to foreclosure and sale, as well as the cost of property maintenance, insurance, real estate taxes and other expenses, for the period between default and ultimate liquidation. The sheer number of foreclosures completed and pending since the collapse of the residential real estate market, together with court backlogs in many jurisdictions, has substantially escalated such collection costs.

The final factor is a bit of good news. Not everyone who is underwater against the value of their home will default or eventually be forced to sell for less than their mortgage balance. Some—a good number, one hopes—will accept their fate, hope for better times ahead, and have the resources (like jobs and savings) to go on paying their large debts. After all, they will want to remain in their homes, neighborhoods and communities, however unsound a financial proposition this may be.

We believe these offsetting factors will mitigate slightly in favor of lenders, in that as skewed as mortgage lending was toward high loan-to-value lending in the first several years of this decade, a substantial number of even highly “underwater” homeowners won’t default, die, or need to move from their homes in the short term. That said, it’s important to note that the losses incurred in the repricing of homes to a stabilized floor are not likely to be recovered (as in a run-of-the-mill cyclical downturn), other than through the normal inflation of home prices over the very long term. Taking all of these factors into consideration, our view is that primary losses from bubble-period mortgage lending will total approximately $1.25 trillion, up from our estimate in Q1 of $1 trillion.

“Knock-on” Effects

We have identified an aggregate loss of value of American homes, at projected stabilization, of $5.6 trillion. Of that, we expect homeowners to lose $4+ trillion in net worth, and lenders will experience losses of approximately $1.25 trillion. While we won’t attempt to quantify the impact of this gargantuan loss of value on the economy as a whole, we list the following as areas almost certain to add to the damage caused by the tidal wave of postmillennium debt:

Consumer Spending:

We conservatively estimate that at least 15% of consumers’ non-shelter spending during much of the bubble era was funded through mortgage equity withdrawals from homes. The overall wealth effect of the housing bubble likely drove additional consumer credit-financed purchases. After the rush from Federal Income Tax rebates fades this quarter, the full effect of spending retrenchment will create additional challenges to corporate employment, spending and investment.

Consumer Credit:

Consumer credit increased by approximately 75%, or $1 trillion, during the current decade, to $2.6 trillion of revolving, auto loan, student loan and other debt. We expect losses in this sector to be material—perhaps as high as 10% of outstanding balances.

Commercial Property:

Retail shopping centers, office buildings, hotels and other income-producing real estate will experience slowing space demands and a consequent fall in rents and room rates. Currently, the total balance of U.S. commercial/multifamily mortgage debt stands at approximately $3.4 trillion. While commercial real estate is not as highly leveraged as it was (on a percentage basis) during the crisis of the early 1990s, there have already been significant write-downs by financial institutions, and there are certain to be more.

Leveraged Loans:

A smaller, but still sizable, headache for financial institutions remains in the form of the resolution of loans that financed the corporate acquisition boom of the latter part of the bubble. Many of the companies acquired by both public and private investors are now worth a fraction of the value ascribed to them at the time of their acquisition.

Together with the housing and mortgage crises, the foregoing knock-on effects will result in additional losses to the value of financial assets in the neighborhood of hundreds of billions of dollars. They will also likely put additional pressure on the essential process of credit formation in the economy. Together with increasing housing inventory and the inability of many potential homebuyers to qualify for credit under stricter underwriting criteria, the foregoing factors may place additional downward pressure on home prices, which could have the effect of prices slipping lower than the level we have suggested as being a stabilized price level—before readjusting to that level upon a recovery.

Conclusion

What were we thinking? In hindsight, did all of us really believe a sudden realignment of home prices, which defied all other metrics, was sustainable—or, for that matter, real?

Apparently so.

Our regulators, lenders, investment bankers and homeowners were willing participants in yet another, and this time more damaging, classic bout of speculative asset inflation. The hallmarks of asset bubbles and resulting financial crises over the past quarter century have been substantially similar: (a) a failure to observe basic economic and financial fundamentals regarding value, capital and the markets; combined with (b) a uniquely American tendency to believe that almost any new economic phenomenon ushers in a new era to be governed by a completely new set of measures of value and economic performance. This time, unfortunately, we were speculating with Americans’ largest asset and repository of wealth, which has already set in stone the outcomes that will make this crisis the most debilitating since the Great Depression.

Westwood believes the two principal drivers of the housing bubble were easy money (negative real rates of interest as a result of overly accommodative monetary policy) and an unwillingness, or inability, on the part of both industry and government regulatory bodies to blow the whistle and stop the music while the party roared on. Other drivers include a “look-the-other-way” attitude on the part of investment banks and mortgage bankers, a conflict of interest on the part of banks that made loans almost instantaneously sold to others, and an outsourcing of credit analysis to parties (read, rating agencies) that were conflicted and had no better skill sets than other market participants.

We are often asked how these two drivers conspired to create the bubble. To answer this question, we continue to offer a simple explanation we initially penned last summer. Let’s say, in 2000, you had $100,000 to put down on a home purchase. In the same year, with adjustable-rate residential mortgages at 6%, you were offered a mortgage for 80% of the purchase price of your prospective home. The $100,000 you had available meant that you could afford a $500,000 home (80% of $500,000 = $400,000 in mortgage) and, interest only, your monthly payment would have been approximately $2,000 per month. Now, zoom ahead to 2006. With the same $100,000 in your pocket, and an adjustable teaser interest rate of 3%, mortgage companies nationwide were knocking down your door to offer mortgages at 90% of your purchase price (and almost 100%, in some cases). With your same $100,000 and $2,000-per-month interest payment, you could now afford to pay $1 million for the same house. Does this mean the homes themselves were actually worth more? As this report demonstrates, of course not.

Appendix A

For Sale Homes and Rental Property Carriyng Cost Analysis

image020_512.png

Appendix A

For Sale Homes and Rental Property Carriyng Cost Analysis

image020_512.png

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The author thanks Andrew Mezei for assistance with research and preparation of this report.

Footnotes:

1 Average interest on a self-amortizing, 30-year mortgage per Bloomberg as of July 22, 2008 2 The MSA by MSA data for the additional declines be viewed as illustrative, given the limited samples involved.

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