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United States Channel: Latest Posts
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Finance & Markets
Predicting the trough and a jobless recovery
Michael Dueker is a senior portfolio strategist at Russell Investments and formerly was an assistant vice president in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Michael is also a member of the Blue Chip forecasting panel. In early February 2008, Michael submitted a piece to Econbrowser that correctly predicted the onset of the current recession, using a model-based forecast. We are pleased that that he is now presenting forecasts from the same Qual VAR model concerning the recession’s trough date and the magnitude of a jobless recovery to follow, subject to the disclaimer that the content is the responsibility of the author and does not represent official positions of Russell Investments and does not constitute investment advice.
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Finance & Markets
Free Rides?
`Labor costs aren’t the biggest problem automakers face, the problem is making cars people want to buy: -
Global Macro
A Hybrid Vehicle (One Third Bailout, Two-Thirds Chapter 11) for Automakers, But No More TARP for Wall Street
The Big Three need a hybrid vehicle, if you will — a combination of chapter 11 bankruptcy and a bailout. For every taxpayer dollar they receive, the automakers should be required to come up with $2 from their stakeholders (creditors, shareholders, executives, white and blue collar employees), just as stakeholders would have to sacrifice under Chapter 11.
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Finance & Markets
The Zero Yield Economy
We mentioned this yesterday as it happened, but Treasuries traded down to previously unseen yields. The 3 month T-bill went negative yield for the first time ever.
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Finance & Markets
A Populist Backlash?
`Now that the crisis is spreading to the real economy, you can feel the anger and resentment starting to build. Robert Reich thinks we may be “courting a populist backlash”: -
Finance & Markets
Detroit Bailout; Ford Opts Out?
`As we noted Saturday morning, the $15B Detroit bailout is moving ahead. The preliminary deal looks to be a a loan, plus supervision and an equity stake. And I’m not sure, but Ford is making noise as if they are opting out of part of the deal: -
Finance & Markets
Comparing recessions
Last week was a tough one for the optimists.
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Finance & Markets
Liquidity Discount versus Time Preference
Nick Rowe disagrees with Brad DeLong: Liquidity, Time Preference, Brad DeLong, and the missing $20 trillion, Worthwhile Canadian Initiative: Brad DeLong has an excellent short essay on the financial crisis. … I disagree with one part of it:
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Finance & Markets
A change is gonna’ come
Tribune filed for bankruptcy today. This, by a very smart man who sold his $12 billion commercial and residential real estate portfolio at the very tippy top of the CRE bubble, only to be sucked into another bubble bursting. The Tribue Cos. And affiliates have sold off a lot of assets, fired a lot of professionals and cut back on a lot production – in essence, they are much lesser a producer of actual original content and will shrink further as time goes on.
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Finance & Markets
Separated At Birth?
Try as he might, Macro Man has failed to muster any enthusiasm for the recent equity rally. Can it continue? Of course it can…perhaps markets will view a Big 3 resolution as a favourable outcome (though Macro Man will be sceptical of any resolution that fails to improve styling, build quality, and energy efficiency.)
