Political transitions weigh on macro prospects in MENA's oil importers, with Egypt the biggest concern. http://t.co/AgVBl7KHsy
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United States Channel: Latest Posts
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United States
Preparing to Live in That Unknown Country: The Future
The recent New York Ideas 2013 conference, sponsored by The Aspen Institute and The Atlantic Magazine, brought together about 600 New York and national thought leaders. Among the many participants were people such as: Robert K. Steel (NYC Deputy Mayor for Economic Development), John Borthwick (Founder and CEO, Betaworks), Eric Schmidt (Executive Chairman, Google), Alexa Von Tobel (Founder [...]
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United States
Weighing the Week Ahead: Are Consumers Ready to Buy? What About Housing?
The economic recovery, to the surprise of nearly everyone, has been consumer-driven. This has occurred despite increased savings and an overall improvement in household balance sheets. Businesses have been cautious to invest and to hire. State and local governments have been slashing spending and employees. I expect a week with a consumer focus. It starts [...]
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United States
Wall Street Hiring More Ex-Government
ProstitutesOfficials to Assure It Gets Its WayThe infamous James Carville quote, “Drag a hundred-dollar bill through a trailer park, you never know what you’ll find,” seems more applicable to official Washington than the much-maligned Paula Jones. Ben White at Politico (hat tip Paul Tioxon) provided an update on the revolving door, Wall Street edition. It’s so mind-numbingly common for a government [...]
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United States
Macro-Markets Risk Index
A markets-based profile of US economic conditions suggests that business cycle risk remains low. The Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) closed yesterday (May 9) at 16.3%–well above the danger zone of 0% and within the 10%-to-16% range that’s prevailed so far in 2013. When MMRI falls under 0%, recession risk is elevated; readings above 0% equate [...]
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United States
Another 5-Year Low For Jobless Claims
It’s the gift that keeps on giving. Initial jobless claims slipped again last week, retreating by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 323,000—the lowest since January 2008. The latest drop is slight, but the fact that claims fell to another multi-year low for the week through May 4 is significant. The main takeaway in today’s report: the [...]
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Ed Dolan's Econ Blog
Arguments against Exporting Natural Gas Don’t Add Up
The energy policy topic of the week is whether to export more of America’s newly abundant natural gas. Like any good card-carrying economist, my instincts favor free trade. Other things being equal, that makes me pro-export. Still, shouldn’t we listen to what the other side has to say? Maybe gas is different. Maybe exporting it [...]
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United States
The Shrinking U.S. Labor Force and Fed Policy
Does the large drop in the U.S. labor force participation rate justify a monetary policy that is easier, for longer, than suggested by our models or the Fed’s current description of its policy? Chris Erceg and Andy Levin, two senior researchers at the Fed now on leave at the IMF, argue yes. Their analysis will provide fuel [...]
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United States
U.S. Debt Ceiling: A Plan to Kick the Can?
House Republicans want to tie an increase in the debt ceiling due in September/October to a concrete process for corporate tax reform, as reported here and here. One idea is to couple a short-term debt limit increase to a mandate for the House to pass a tax-reform plan. The debt limit would increase further when the House passes its [...]
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United States
U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew Places Blame on Congress
Jack Lew really needs to get better at lying in public. So far, he’s making a hash of it. A Reuters story reports on Lew telling a series of whoppers: Dysfunction in Washington is one of the biggest drags on the U.S. economy, undermining confidence and crimping growth, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said on Tuesday. “One [...]
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United States
Heritage Assesses the Ever-Expanding Ever-Centralizing Federal Government Sector
In a graphically interesting discussion of the April employment situation release, James Sherk and Salim Furth write: State and local governments avoided the massive job losses of 2008 and 2009 that affected the private sector—these governments even grew slightly during the recession. But they have been gradually downsizing ever since. The federal government, by contrast, has expanded [...]
