Euro-Zone Business Activity Falls Again http://t.co/0Y5nTei7
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United States Channel: Latest Posts
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United States
State Dependence and Fiscal Multipliers
Or, are there nonlinearities in the real (macro) world? Following up on Jim’s Sunday post on multipliers, I found this graph from the April IMF Fiscal Monitor of interest: Figure from IMF Fiscal Monitor, April 2012. The authors describe the results underpinning this graph thus: The model finds significant evidence that the impact of fiscal [...]
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United States
Fiscal Stimulus
My colleague UCSD Professor Valerie Ramey has an interesting new paper looking at the effects of higher government spending on GDP. Ramey (2012) approaches the question from a forecasting perspective. Suppose a certain event (examples of which are detailed below) causes you to revise your forecast of how high government spending is going to be [...]
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United States
Hoover on Austerity to Balance the Budget and Defend the Dollar in 1932
I have written quite a few posts highlighting the statements made by Herbert Hoover during his US presidency as he struggled with the economic contraction of the Great Depression (see posts tagged “Herbert Hoover“). The general tenor of Hoover’s comments and actions goes to redoubling efforts toward balancing the federal budget in order to bring [...]
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Latin America
North American Competitiveness
Last week I attended a conference “Made in North America: Competitiveness, Supply Chain, and Transportation in the NAFTA Region,” which was part of World Trade Week’s events here in New York. From the interesting panels there emerged three main points, one positive and two less so. The positive outlook is that macroeconomic and global winds [...]
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United States
Strategic Briefing – Taxmageddon and the Economy
How ‘Taxmageddon’ would affect the U.S. economy The Washington Post | May 17 What will the economy look like in 2013? A great deal depends on what Congress decides to do at the end of this year. Remember, the Bush tax cuts are expiring, the payroll tax holiday will sunset, and a bunch of new [...]
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United States
The Commencement Address That Won’t Be Given
Members of the Class of 2012, As a former secretary of labor and current professor, I feel I owe it to you to tell you the truth about the pieces of parchment you’re picking up today. You’re f*cked. Well, not exactly. But you won’t have it easy. First, you’re going to have a hell of [...]
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United States
Flexible Inflation Targeting Is Just Fine
The Atlanta Fed’s David Altig is the latest central banker to defend flexible inflation targeting (FIT). He says it “feels about right to him.” This follows the Bank of Canada’s Mark Carney who claimed earlier this month that FIT ”proved [its] worth through crisis and will be essential to sustain the recovery.” Really? I did not realize [...]
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Finance & Markets
Geithner to Dimon: Resign from the Board of the New York Fed
In an interview Thursday on PBS NewsHour, Jeffrey Brown and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner had the following exchange: “JEFFREY BROWN: Do you think Jamie Dimon should be off the board [of the New York Federal Reserve Board]? TIMOTHY GEITHNER: Well, that’s a question he’ll have to make and the Fed will have to make. But again, [...]
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United States
The War on Data Collection Continues: House of Representatives Edition
The War on Data Collection Continues! From the National Association for Business Economics (NABE): [t]he U.S. House of Representatives was considering an appropriations bill for Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies (H.R. 5326) that would drastically reduce funding for the Census Bureau and make participation in the American Community Survey voluntary. … Regrettably, the legislation [...]
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Ed Dolan's Econ Blog
Inflation is Quiet, So Why are People Still Feeling its Pain?
This week’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows no change in the seasonally adjusted U.S. consumer price index for April. Real average hourly earnings were also unchanged. On the face of it, those numbers should take inflation off the list of things people have to worry about, but they don’t. Instead, every time [...]
