See these for more about the tech slowdown & what comes next @FabiusMaximus01: http://t.co/52HGQUANpv & http://t.co/W9VXNadujw.
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Latin America Channel: Latest Posts
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Latin America
Repricing of Latin American Risks
As global financial markets undergo a new phase of repricing risks and normalization of global asset prices, after the peak of a Minsky credit cycle, the current (long or short) period of turbulence in Latin American financial markets is also bound to continue. Whether or not the benevolent credit squeeze becomes a deadly credit crunch [...]
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Latin America
Argentina: Who’s Wearing the Trousers?
On Monday we were treated to the announcement of Argentina’s July 0.5% monthly shiatsu inflation figure. As a Buenos Aires friend commented, “(The headline inflation rate) makes you laugh right up to the moment you walk in the supermarket.” Apparently, as a pair of men’s winter trousers could be snapped up at a 32% discount [...]
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Latin America
The Cost of Financing
In my previous posting I argued that it is important to focus the attention back on private investment in Latin America. It is well known that a necessary condition for private investment to become an engine of growth is that property rights are well protected, and that the business environment is good enough to attract [...]
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Latin America
Venezuela: It’s The Economy, Stupid
Venezuela is doing alright. And before we go any further we’re not talking politics here, okay? No choices of colour for your shirt, no clenched fists, no TV channels, no cracks about ‘devils’, no students, no mass rallies. No politics at all. Not even going to mention the name of that guy over there. You [...]
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Latin America
Spreads and Ratings (a postscript)
The analysis in our original paper that I commented on in the blog (Spreads and Ratings July 26th) used data to the end of 2006. However, as many readers have commented emerging markets spreads have risen. In this Postscript I present some additional results including an analysis of what might happen to EM spreads if [...]
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Latin America
Electricity and macroeconomics in Brazil: the end of the golden age
The fourth new energy auction in Brazil took place last Wednesday (July 26), with contracts for delivery starting in 2010. Its results (Table 1) displayed some features that deserve attention: (i) There was no submission of bids by hydro plants, even though two large hydro plants and one PCH had pre-qualified to participate; (ii) The thermo [...]
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Latin America
Overview: What Happened to the Doldrums?
The months of July and August were typically periods of low activity and early closes. This year should not have been different. The Chinese behemoth was ravishing the global supply of commodities, positioning the emerging market countries for another comfortable year. Many fund managers were taking advantage of the traditional slowdown to enjoy their summer [...]
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Latin America
Spreads and Ratings
Ratings are up, spreads are down. Chart 1 plots cumulative upgrades for Moody’s and S&P for Emerging Markets (EM’s) and the EMBI global illustrating the dramatic increase in emerging market credit quality the reduction in emerging market spreads[1]. In this blog I want to address 3 issues: Chart 1: Cumulative Upgrades and The EMBI [...]
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Latin America
Sovereign Wealth Funds for Latin America?
By now it should be apparent that the hottest issue in generally hot Latin America is the furious pace of international reserves accumulation. The current level of reserves in Brazil, about US $ 145 billion, is more than double the US$ 62.7 billion level of the end of June 2006. Likewise, both Colombia and Peru [...]
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Latin America
A Thought on Private Investment
Fellow blogger Alex Uriarte has called our attention on the issue of the quality of investment. The focus of his posting is, understandably, on public investment as this is the variety that is currently fashionable in Latin America. Governments throughout the region have, in recent years, taken a more interventionist stance and have sought to [...]
