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Latin America Channel: Latest Posts
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Latin America
Recessions: Past and Future
Since the 1960s the world went through 4 “recessions” (see Chart; I use quotation marks, because in no case there was negative growth at the world level, although the cycles are clear): in 1974/75, 1980/82, 1991/93, and 2001/02. Each one of those was associated with a recession in the US (but there were two US [...]
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Latin America
Chicken Soup for the New Financial Panic
For anyone that witnessed the sequence of emerging markets crises of the 1990s, yesterday’s sharp falls of the European, Asian, and Latin American financial markets must have created a sense of déjà vu all over again. Indeed, there are several similarities between the current meltdowns and those of a decade ago. But there are new [...]
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Latin America
Ecuador’s Tax Reform: Kalecki Redux?
The government of President Rafael Correa, now celebrating his first year in office, has proposed a ‘citizen’s revolution’ that aims for economically sustainable, decentralized and socially inclusive development. Correa has formed new alliances with lower and middle class sectors and isolated the establishment powers of the nation’s oligarchy, its main media outlets, financial capital, central [...]
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Latin America
Argentina: Just Plain Hot
The scorching heat in Buenos Aires makes for an interesting background to the torrential pace of economic activity. The Argentine economy is soaring, growing 8.5% y/y in 2007. The heady pace of growth pushed tax revenues 33% y/y higher, reaching almost $70 billion. Automobile production reached record levels, making it one of the leading car [...]
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Latin America
Brazil’s Fiscal Package
The Brazilian package that increased the IOF (Tax on Financial Operations) in January of 2008 is bad, even taking into account the need for measures in order to balance the effects of the dissolution of the CPMF (Provisional Contribution on Financial Transactions). It fails to specify cuts in expenditure and is dependent on the approval [...]
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Latin America
Colombia: High Drama on the Eastern Plains
While most of the world was bringing in the New Year, a political circus unfurled on the so-called Llanos Orientales. The drama involved heads of state, Hollywood directors, leftist guerillas and humanitarian agencies. The plot revolved around an attempt by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez to secure the release of three hostages held by the FARC. [...]
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Latin America
Is Barack Bullish or Bearish for Latin America?
Through a process that Latin Americans must find very strange, the U.S. is selecting its two candidates for the 2008 presidential elections. This is beginning with high-profile primary elections in Iowa and (tonight actually) in New Hampshire, two very low-profile (and unrepresentative) states. For reasons not crystal clear to anyone, voters in these states have [...]
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Latin America
Uruguay: Sunshine on the Eastern Bank
The melancholy that once characterized the eastern side of the River Plate is giving way to an air of self-confidence and determination. With the Uruguayan economy growing at pace of almost 6% y/y and new mega-projects coming on line, Uruguay is graduating beyond the provision of tourism and financial services to its two volatile neighbors. [...]
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Latin America
It’s physical: that’s the way to integrate in South America
About ten years ago, before the Euro was inaugurated, I attended an academic debate about the future of the new currency between two economists, one coming from a US academic institution and another from an Italian university. The former argued that the experience was doomed to fail, given the absence of those prerequisites for an [...]
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Latin America
Latin America: The Student Years
When this commentator was at school, 25 years ago in provincial England, the future was Socialism. We railed against the capitalist pig moneyslave government of the day, refused to join the army cadet corps and instead organized community service volunteer rotas. One of my contemporaries wore Lech Walesa “Solidarnosc” buttons on his blazer (which may [...]
