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Latin America Channel: Latest Posts
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Emerging Markets
Mexico’s Tax Reform in the Works: Preview and Initial Considerations
After early speculation that President Peña Nieto would unveil his much anticipated tax reform during the 2013 spring congressional session (February 1st – April 30th), Finance Minister Luis Videgaray recently confirmed that the comprehensive tax and expenditure package would not be unveiled until the second half of this year. According to Videgaray and other PRI [...]
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Emerging Markets
Brazilian Competitiveness: Folia and Hangover
As the Carnival in Brazil kicked off last weekend, Brazilians were ready for a party. They have reasons to celebrate. Despite a lackluster GDP performance in the last two years, unemployment rates remain at record low levels. Poverty rates and income inequality have diminished steadily now for more than a decade. As soon as the [...]
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Great Leap Forward
Upcoming Conference at UNAM in Mexico City
For any of those who might be in Mexico City this February 18-19, take a look at this conference announcement.
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RGE Analysts
Can Portfolio Flows Play a Dual Role in Brazil in 2013?
Brazil’s current account remained relatively stable in 2012, with a deficit of around 2.4% of GDP, slightly higher than the 2011 deficit of 2.1% of GDP. The CAD was fully funded by FDI, which summed US$68 billion (3% of GDP), while portfolio flows remained anemic at 0.4% of GDP. These dynamics prevailed throughout 2012, so [...]
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RGE Analysts
Why Did Brazil Underperform its Peers in 2012? Policy.
The end of Q4 brought forward interesting dynamics in the LatAm region: Namely, a sharp deceleration in inflation in every inflation-targeting economy, with the exception of Brazil (although we expected inflation to soothe by year-end in Mexico, Chile and Peru, the deceleration was much stronger than anticipated, and downward revisions to our inflation forecasts could [...]
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Latin America
What to Expect from a Post-Chavez Venezuela
It’s unlikely that ailing Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez will return to power after missing his Thursday inauguration because of ongoing cancer treatment in Cuba. That leaves Vice President Nicolas Maduro in de facto power of a country that has moved further away from Washington and closer to rogue regimes like Syria and Iran. In the [...]
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Latin America
Drawing the Wrong Lessons From Argentina’s Debt Mess
The Financial Times has joined the chorus of those calling for a new statutory sovereign debt restructuring mechanism (SDRM), citing Argentina’s legal battle with holdout creditors as evidence of a broken system for restructuring sovereign debt. The SDRM, as most commonly understood, envisages a formal restructuring process, analogous to national bankruptcy law, to deal with the [...]
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Geostrategy
If Chavez Dies, What Next for U.S.-Venezuela Energy Relations?
Despite contradictory information from Caracas, one thing is clear – Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, the country’s chief executive since 1998, is a very sick man. Having won reelection in October to a fourth term, many Venezuelans are now wondering if President Chavez will serve out his six years, or even if he will be well [...]
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Emerging Markets
Mexico: Five Key Political Risks in 2013
The next year promises to be a challenging year in terms of politics and security. On the heels of a contentious presidential election and soaring levels of criminal activity, the country’s political transition opens the possibility for a new era of reforms and policy changes that could drastically improve the country’s outlook. At the same [...]
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Latin America
Ecuador: Bank Spreads, Taxes, Executive Compensation and Growth
(Cross Posted at Benzinga.com) One of the distinctive features of banking in scores of developing nations is the very large spreads between the rate of interest they pay their depositors and the rate they charge borrowers. Academics have frequently focused on the exceptionally high spreads in Latin America in articles published over the last three [...]
