The most important Chinese demographics chart http://t.co/U87jdUjq
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Global Macro Channel: Latest Posts
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Geostrategy
‘Political Constraints in the Aftermath of Financial Crises’
Political constraints limit the options for rescuing the financial sector after a meltdown: Political constraints in the aftermath of financial crises, by Atif Mian, Amir Sufi, and Francesco Trebbi, Vox EU: Financial crises of all colors (banking, currency, inflation, or debt crises) leave deep marks on an economy. … What exactly occurs in the aftermath [...]
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Great Leap Forward
MMT On the Web
In the past few days there have been a number of posts highlighting Modern Money Theory. Here are two at Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/mainstream-economics-and-modern-monetary-theory-a-family-tree/2012/02/17/gIQAiy6RKR_graphic.html http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/modern-monetary-theory-is-an-unconventional-take-on-economic-strategy/2012/02/15/gIQAR8uPMR_story.html This story set off a number of interesting responses to/defenses of the MMT positions (to be clear, I think almost all the critiques are completely offbase; if you really want to [...]
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Global Macro
The New York Fed Acknowledges the Fed’s Superpower Status
I have made the case many times that the Fed is a monetary superpower. It controls the world’s main reserve currency and many emerging markets are formally or informally pegged to dollar. Consequently, its monetary policy gets exported across much of the globe. The other two monetary powers, the ECB and the Bank of Japan, [...]
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Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor
The Uptick’s Downside
From Project Syndicate: Since late last year, a series of positive developments has boosted investor confidence and led to a sharp rally in risky assets, starting with global equities and commodities. Macroeconomic data from the United States improved; blue-chip companies in advanced economies remained highly profitable; China and emerging markets slowed only moderately; and the [...]
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Global Macro
Papering Over the Gold Standard’s Flaws
Pushing for a return to the gold standard as a cure for economic volatility is the new new thing in populist circles these days. Holding out the promise of a kinder, gentler business cycle needs no introduction. Several Republican presidential candidates have embraced the idea, and there’s no shortage of pundits jumping on gold’s bandwagon, [...]
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Global Macro
What Would Keynes Recommend Today?
The European crisis continues to deepen. This column argues that the current monetary and fiscal policy strategy is inappropriate, and is likely to be counterproductive. Current policies do not address the source of the public debt problem, and provide little hope for economic recovery in periphery countries. Introduction Deficient private demand, weak or falling output, [...]
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Global Macro
Adam Smith and Joseph Schumpeter on the Issues of the Day
On the issue of the bifurcation of society, the widening income gap and the related resentment, there is useful commentary that comes from a surprising quarter, or perhaps not surprising in itself, but in the view taken on the subject: Both Adam Smith and Joseph Schumpeter, defenders of capitalism as the source of “universal opulence”, [...]
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Global Macro
Debating Hester’s Bonus and Mr. Fred’s Knighthood Is Futile: Focus on Volcker’s Rule and Break Up the Banks
Smoke and mirrors. Forcing RBS’s Stephen Hester to forgo some bonus and stripping Fred Goodwin of his knighthood, are only illusionist’s games; demagogic attempts in election times. The only real facts are the trillions of dollars of public money already spent to save the banks and the continuing government guarantee to monolith banks and other [...]
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Global Macro
Quantifying Economic Policy Uncertainty
Is economic policy muddled? Some economists argue that confusion on the outlook for a range of policy fronts, such as regulation and tax policy, has been weighing on the economy. But how does one define policy uncertainty? A Stanford economist (Nicholas Bloom) and a Ph.D. candidate (Scott Baker) offer a possible solution with an attempt [...]
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Don't Shoot the Messenger
Global Manufacturing Steadies as She Goes, or Does She?
The year got off on a much better foot than might have been expected, at least as far as global manufacturing is concerned. As the JP Morgan report puts it: “The global manufacturing sector continued to record below trend growth at the start of 2012. At 51.2 in January, the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI™ rose [...]
