China inflation spike pricks policy easing expectations http://t.co/XZqHNzAQ
17 minutes ago
Global Macro Channel: Latest Posts
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Global Macro
Quantifying Economic Policy Uncertainty
Is economic policy muddled? Some economists argue that confusion on the outlook for a range of policy fronts, such as regulation and tax policy, has been weighing on the economy. But how does one define policy uncertainty? A Stanford economist (Nicholas Bloom) and a Ph.D. candidate (Scott Baker) offer a possible solution with an attempt [...]
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Don't Shoot the Messenger
Global Manufacturing Steadies as She Goes, or Does She?
The year got off on a much better foot than might have been expected, at least as far as global manufacturing is concerned. As the JP Morgan report puts it: “The global manufacturing sector continued to record below trend growth at the start of 2012. At 51.2 in January, the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI™ rose [...]
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RGE Analysts
Canada’s Trade Ties: Harper Heads to China
Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper heads to China today on a much-anticipated trip, his first since 2009, when his trip was far overshadowed by President Obama’s first trip. He has the privilege of being one of the first global leaders to visit China after the holiday period, though we expect Chinese leaders will again be [...]
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Global Macro
Understanding Past and Future Financial Crises
What explains the different effects of the crisis around the world? This column compares the 2007–09 crisis to earlier episodes of banking, currency, and sovereign debt distress and identifies domestic-credit booms and real currency appreciation as the most significant predictors of future crises, in both advanced and emerging economies. It argues these results could help [...]
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Global Macro
It’s the Years, Not the Mileage: IMF Analysis of Pension Reforms in Advanced Economies
Indiana Jones, the fictional character of the namesake movies, once said “It’s not the years, it’s the mileage.” This quote comes to mind as many advanced economies wrestle with pension reform and the best way to ensure both retirees and governments don’t go broke. Our view, explained in a new study, is that the years [...]
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Emerging Markets
Debt Monetization: From Tokyo to Washington and Brussels
The advanced economies seek to inflate away their massive debt by exporting inflation to the emerging world. The end-game of the global financial crisis of 2008/9 has begun. Recently, the World Bank warned developing countries to prepare for the risk of the world going into a slump like the global downturn in 2008-09 owing to [...]
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Global Macro
How to Exit the Danger Zone: IMF Update on Global Financial Stability
Since September of last year, risks to global financial stability have deepened, notably in the euro area. However, over the past few weeks, markets have been encouraged by measures to provide liquidity to banks and sovereigns in the euro area. This recent improvement should not be taken for granted, as some sovereign debt markets remain [...]
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The Kapali Carsi
Davos: Enjoy the Party While it Lasts
Below is the weekly guest column by Taylan Bilgic, which was published on Friday at Hurriyet Daily News. No comments from me this time around, as I am too sleepy- it is past midnight in Turkey right now:) But my own Daily News column is about the Fed’s actions, so it will fit in with [...]
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Global Macro
Fiscal Adjustment: Too Much of a Good Thing?
The IMF has argued for some time that the very high public debt ratios in many advanced economies should be brought down to safer levels through a gradual and steady process. Doing either too little or too much both involve risks: not enough fiscal adjustment could lead to a loss of market confidence and a [...]
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Global Macro
The Twilight of the Leisure Class
Conspicuous leisure, conspicuous waste, conspicuous consumption. Veblen coins these terms in Theory of the Leisure Class to describe the strategies the noble and priestly classes employ to assert their status. Veblen observes that a life of leisure is the readiest evidence of the superior class, while anything having to do with the work-a-day world of [...]
