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Global Macro Channel: Latest Posts
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Global Macro
Understanding Past and Future Financial Crises
What explains the different effects of the crisis around the world? This column compares the 2007–09 crisis to earlier episodes of banking, currency, and sovereign debt distress and identifies domestic-credit booms and real currency appreciation as the most significant predictors of future crises, in both advanced and emerging economies. It argues these results could help [...]
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Global Macro
It’s the Years, Not the Mileage: IMF Analysis of Pension Reforms in Advanced Economies
Indiana Jones, the fictional character of the namesake movies, once said “It’s not the years, it’s the mileage.” This quote comes to mind as many advanced economies wrestle with pension reform and the best way to ensure both retirees and governments don’t go broke. Our view, explained in a new study, is that the years [...]
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Emerging Markets
Debt Monetization: From Tokyo to Washington and Brussels
The advanced economies seek to inflate away their massive debt by exporting inflation to the emerging world. The end-game of the global financial crisis of 2008/9 has begun. Recently, the World Bank warned developing countries to prepare for the risk of the world going into a slump like the global downturn in 2008-09 owing to [...]
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Global Macro
How to Exit the Danger Zone: IMF Update on Global Financial Stability
Since September of last year, risks to global financial stability have deepened, notably in the euro area. However, over the past few weeks, markets have been encouraged by measures to provide liquidity to banks and sovereigns in the euro area. This recent improvement should not be taken for granted, as some sovereign debt markets remain [...]
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The Kapali Carsi
Davos: Enjoy the Party While it Lasts
Below is the weekly guest column by Taylan Bilgic, which was published on Friday at Hurriyet Daily News. No comments from me this time around, as I am too sleepy- it is past midnight in Turkey right now:) But my own Daily News column is about the Fed’s actions, so it will fit in with [...]
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Global Macro
Fiscal Adjustment: Too Much of a Good Thing?
The IMF has argued for some time that the very high public debt ratios in many advanced economies should be brought down to safer levels through a gradual and steady process. Doing either too little or too much both involve risks: not enough fiscal adjustment could lead to a loss of market confidence and a [...]
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Global Macro
The Twilight of the Leisure Class
Conspicuous leisure, conspicuous waste, conspicuous consumption. Veblen coins these terms in Theory of the Leisure Class to describe the strategies the noble and priestly classes employ to assert their status. Veblen observes that a life of leisure is the readiest evidence of the superior class, while anything having to do with the work-a-day world of [...]
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Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor
Roubini CNN Davos Vidoes: Europe Needs a ‘Bazooka’, U.S Has 1929-Style Income Inequality
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Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor
Roubini and Rogoff with CNBC’s Bartiromo – Recession in Europe, SOTU, Global Growth Risks
CNBC — Europe Has Fundamental Problems That Can’t Be Resolved by the ECB: Roubini Nouriel Roubini, CEO of Roubini Global Economics, told CNBC, “there is a recession throughout Europe, United States economic growth is very anaemic below 2 percent, there is a slow-down also right now in China.”
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Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor
‘We’ve Got Bigger Problems Right Now’ – Roubini and Bremmer Reveal the Surprising Winners and Losers of the Coming Year, and Debate Whether the Big Brains at Davos Can Rescue a Global Economy in Crisis
From Foreign Policy: As the global elite gather for the World Economic Forum this week the topic of discussion is less about creating wealth for the less fortunate or helping the developing world — it’s about saving the core. Perhaps not surprisingly, economist Nouriel Roubini says don’t hold your breath, calling 2012 a year of [...]
