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Geostrategy Channel: Latest Posts
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RGE Analysts
QE3: Buoying the GCC
The Economonitor’s QE3 week is perfect timing as we’ve been thinking a lot about the effects of the latest bouts of global monetary stimulus on the Middle East and North Africa – as summarized in part of our omnibus MENA quarterly presentation. We argue there that even though EMs and to a lesser extent frontier [...]
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Geostrategy
National Research Council: ‘Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis’
”There is compelling reason to presume that specific failures of adaptation [to climate change] will occur with consequences more severe than any yet experienced, severe enough to compel more extensive international engagement than has yet been anticipated or organized.” The National Research Council is the principle operating arm of the National Academy of Sciences, the [...]
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Geostrategy
Revolutionary Services
Last May, in China, WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy remarked: “The global economy is being transformed at an unprecedented speed and at the heart of that transformation is the services economy. (…) Services underpin every part of the production process, from research and development to design, engineering, financing, transportation, distribution and marketing. In short, without services, [...]
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Emerging Markets
Iran’s Untouchable Energy Exports
Yves here. Media reports in the US stress how tightening sanctions against Iran, particularly on banks, are increasingly isolating Iran, leading its currency to fall sharply. This article describes a key break in the cordon, that of electricity exports. But Iran’s major source of foreign exchange, its official dollar oil-related payments, via Standard Chartered, were roughly [...]
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Geostrategy
Hurricane Sandy Asks When Did Weather Become Exceptional? (Plus Important Info About US Hurricanes)
Summary: When did normal weather become exceptional? Hurricane Sandy tells us much about our climate, weather — and ourselves. The truth is out there, if only we wished to see it. If you find this useful, please pass it on to others! Nothing “historic” in these numbers. Click here to get the most current report. Click here to see [...]
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Geostrategy
At Tonight’s Debate, How About Acknowledging that China, India, and Europe Exist?
US election debates have thus far offered little recognition that the United States is just one of many nations—albeit an important one— and its economy part of a much larger global system. Tonight, President Obama and Republican candidate Mitt Romney will field questions from undecided voters, and attention will focus on whether Obama can recover from [...]
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Geostrategy
Update on Iran Sanctions
The boycott of Iran has been more successful than I had anticipated, with Iranian oil production and exports down significantly from a year ago. Alternative estimates of Iranian oil production. Source: Early Warning. And even stronger additional sanctions may soon be agreed upon. The measures appear to be having a significant effect on the Iranian economy, with the IMF reporting [...]
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Asia
Why Does the U.S. Government Seek a Hotter Conflict with China?
Summary: The long-simmering trade conflicts with China have taken a turn for the worse. Romney’s foreign policy team contains some extreme hawks eager for some form of war with China. DoD, desperate for threats to justify its existence, has fired a propaganda barrage at us about the cyber-threat with China. And some national security agencies, [...]
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Geostrategy
Our Crusade Slowly Crushes Iran, and Reveals Much About Us
Summary: In pursuit of dominance over the Middle East the US government destroyed Iraq, one of the two regional powers. Now we run the same playbook against Iran. Being a docile and easily led people, we don’t notice the similarity, or that our government trashes America’s greatest accomplishment on the world stage — and perhaps [...]
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Emerging Markets
Was Hyperinflation the Intended Outcome?
The Wall Street Journal reports on the protests sweeping through Tehran: Protests over the plunging Iranian currency erupted on Wednesday around Tehran’s main bazaar, the country’s commercial hub, as escalating economic woes become a rising political challenge. The demonstrations marked the first time in three decades that the conservative merchant classes, a backbone of the Islamic Revolution [...]
