Geostrategy Channel: Latest Posts
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RGE Analysts
The People’s Republic Turns 60: A New Era for China?
The celebration of Communist China’s 60th anniversary, which marks a full cycle in the Chinese calendar, will highlight the country’s rising economic and geopolitical status. China’s modernizing army will parade the nation’s growing geopolitical clout before the world, and the sheer scale of the spectacle (imagine a militarized version of the Olympic opening ceremony) will leave little doubt about its economic recovery. But while the world will be watching, the show is really for a domestic audience.
Vice President Xi Jinping, tapped by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to replace President Hu Jintao after the 18th Party Congress scheduled for late 2012, is charged with organizing the anniversary celebrations. Xi was not Hu’s first choice within the “fifth generation” of leaders to succeed him. Rather, Xi emerged as the compromise candidate in 2007 because he was acceptable to all three main factions within the Chinese Communist Party: the “prince-lings” with strong family connections within the party, the populists tied to the Chinese Communist Youth League, and the weakened but still powerful “Shanghai Gang,” a group which owes its status to the retired former President Jiang Zemin.
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Finance & Markets
An Inside Look at How Goldman Sachs Lobbies the Senate
I am not as negative toward naked short-selling as Matt Taibbi (feel free to convince me I’m wrong), but his insights into the lobbying effort against financial reform are useful, and I share his concerns about the distortions (e.g. regulatory capture) this brings to the reform process: An Inside Look at How Goldman Sachs Lobbies [...]
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Geostrategy
Desertion, Low Morale, and Readiness: Assessing the Mexican Army’s Involvement in the War Against the Cartels and its Impact on Capabilities for Traditional Responses
The Mexican army’s increasing role in the war against drug cartels has prompted concerns about a potential overstretching of its deployed troops and the impact this could have on morale as well as the army’s capabilities for traditional responses, including natural disaster relief and stationary deployments for guarding strategic facilities and infrastructure such as oil [...]
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Geostrategy
Update: War Watch – Iran
Summary: The wardrums continue to beat, building support for a US attack on Iran. This is a status report, with at the end some excellent links to further information. The battle continues hot and heavy, as factions in Washington strive to shape the US citizenry’s view of Iran. Leaks and lies, authoritative statements and rumors. [...]
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Finance & Markets
The Public Option Lives On
Tomorrow (Tuesday) is a critical day in the saga of the public option. Democrats Charles Schumer (New York) and Jay Rockefeller (West Virginia) are introducing an amendment to include the public option in the bill to be reported out by the Senate Finance Committee — the committee anointed by the White House as its favored [...]
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Geostrategy
Net Neutrality, Two More Words You Can Never Say on Television
On Monday, Federal Communications Commission (FCC) Chairman Julius Genachowski announced the roll-out of plans to implement network neutrality rules covering internet, mobile and other data networks. Many, if not all, data networks in the U.S. engage in some form of traffic management, either by capping bandwidth, blocking ports or protocols and traffic shaping. The FCC’s [...]
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Emerging Markets
The Design of Financial Regulation in the G20 Debate: Tata or Ferrari?
The urgency of strengthening the regulation and supervision of financial institutions was highlighted in the first two G20 meetings in November 2008 and in April 2009. Over the last few months, a large number of academic papers, official reports and white papers have been published in the US and in Europe, and international organizations have [...]
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Geostrategy
The Response to Climate Change “Can Be Gradual—and Affordable”
When the topic of climate change legislation comes up, Republicans predictably respond with “but what about small business?,” though the concerns generally extend to big business as well. Again and again we hear that any attempt to reduce carbon emissions will significantly reduce economic growth. For example, tomorrow’s Wall Street Journal asks “Can Countries Cut [...]
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Geostrategy
USA and Argentina – Alan Beattie’s Final Response
In response to Eugenio Diaz-Bonilla’s previous post: Since I’m not sure anyone but the two of us is still reading, I’ll keep my remarks as brief as I can. But first of all (and most importantly): I agree entirely that the importance of this analysis is in informing the debate about what Argentina should be [...]
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Asia
Tariffs: Other Industries May Line Up for Sanctions Against China
Now that President Obama has signalled his willingness to punish the Chinese for dumping on tires, a whole host of other industries are likely to file their own ‘copy-cat’ complaints. Reuters says: President Barack Obama’s decision to restrict tire imports from China after union workers complained of a surge could lead to copycat cases in [...]











