Finance & Markets Channel: Latest Posts
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Finance & Markets
US unemployment rate jumps to 6.5%
After stalling at 6.1% in September, the US unemployment rate jumped to 6.5%. This was a truly ugly report as we saw payrolls go down by 240,000 – more than forecast and September was revised up significantly from 169,000 to 284,000. -
Finance & Markets
It Can Be Worse than the Great Depression
This is the worst global asset bubble and financial panic since the Great Depression of 1929–33. Still, almost all argue that it cannot become equally bad, because we have learned those lessons.
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Finance & Markets
Waiting for a FUGLY Employment Situation Report
Bob Farrell, Merrill Lynch’s now retired dean of Market Strategy, used to say “News doesn’t drive the markets, markets drive the news.”
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Finance & Markets
Hedgies Still Blowing Up the Markets, Oh My!
A front page story in the Wall Street Journal discusses how continued forced selling by hedge funds was the proximate cause of the sharp selloff of the last two days (um, the simply lousy economic news. such as lousy payrolls, horrific retail sales, no sales of credit card bonds in the last month, and similarly not-so-cheery news from overseas had nothing to do with it). -
Finance & Markets
The Fed doubles its balance sheet – above $2 trillion in just 5 weeks
Think about that. If any commercial or investment bank had been seen to do that, it would become an instant leper in the credit markets. It is a truism that banks go bust by writing business that wiser banks rejected, and so grow their balance sheets faster. As a young bank supervisor I was told [...]
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Finance & Markets
Alt Energy
I hope you all can join me on my journey to educate myself on the future of our world economy and Alternative Energy’s place in this new age. As I am new to this study, I welcome all contributors to not only share their knowledge, but for contributors to share their lack of knowledge. All of your opinions, based on facts or fiction, are important to know. Your questions, both technical and simplistic are welcome, as we all may share your curiosity and fear to ask those same questions. If what I say, has been said before, I apologize for my redundancy. If questions I pose, have answers that have been answered, please share those answers. (I truly am new to this) …and most important, if you feel I am wrong or not properly analyzing something, please speak up. That is the best way for me to learn.
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Finance & Markets
Main Street Recession Watch: ADP Report on Employment
Further evidence that the small business segment of the economy is undergoing stress. From the ADP National Employment Report:
[Joel] Prakken added, “This month’s employment loss was driven by the goods-producing sector which declined 126,000 during October, its twenty-third consecutive monthly decline. The manufacturing sector marked its twenty-sixth consecutive monthly decline, losing 85,000 jobs. These losses were compounded by an employment decline in the service-providing sector of the economy which fell by 31,000, the first loss in the serviceproviding sector recorded by the ADP Report since November of 2002.”
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Finance & Markets
Do Mass Modifications Benefit Wall Street or Main Street?
The big news this weekend was JP Morgan’s announcement that they would modify substantial amounts of loans on their own balance sheet. Like anyone, I would like to see modifications help borrowers where possible. But while many continue to maintain that mass modifications are per se beneficial, there remain substantial reasons to be wary. Three important issues remain to be resolved before any servicer embarks upon widespread modifications. Those include how servicers will report modifications and subsequent performance, the underwriting standards to be applied to modifications, and how those standards and reports can be used to distinguish between meaningful modifications and abusive or predatory modification.
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Finance & Markets
One cheer for the Securities and Exchange Commission
The Securities and Exchange Commission has come under much criticism in the current financial crisis. Many of the problems have indeed arisen in its bailiwick. It was the principal regulator of Bear Stearns and Lehman. It designates and oversees “Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations,” more commonly known as credit ratings agencies. Though it delegates lot of its authority, it is ultimately in charge of financial reporting for all corporations, and can in principle compel disclosure of terms of swaps and other derivatives on a firm’s balance sheet. The SEC’s mandate prominently features investor protection. Given the large government transfers to private interests, it appears that the investor most in need of protection was the US taxpayer.
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The Wilder View
Barack Obama inherits the oval office….plus a truckload of public debt!
Barack Obama from Bloomberg:
“Even as we celebrate tonight, we know the challenges that tomorrow will bring are the greatest of our lifetime — two wars, a planet in peril, the worst financial crisis in a century,” he said. “There is new energy to harness and new jobs to be created; new schools to build and threats to meet and alliances to repair.” Barack Obama has avoided answering the ultimate question: How is he planning to pay for a new energy program, an overhaul of the health care system, new schools, new infrastructure, tax cuts to the middle class, and don’t forget the massive stimulus package that is almost certain to pass Congress. If it is by new debt-issuance by the Treasury, here is what he is up against.













