Jens Weidmann: It’s ‘Illusion’ to Think Euro Bonds Will Fix Crisis
Emerging Market Channel: Latest Posts
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Emerging Markets
Making India Flat
Three years ago, I heard Thomas Friedman speak at TiEcon 2005, the annual conference of The Indus Entrepreneurs, the South Asian networking organization for entrepreneurs, born in Silicon Valley, and now a global force. The conference kicked off with a keynote address by Thomas Friedman, the international affairs correspondent for the New York Times, whose [...]
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Emerging Markets
India’s Global Role
Nouriel Roubini offers a compelling analysis of the Decline of the American Empire. There were several different strands in this piece, including traditional themes of resource competition, military power and spheres of influence, combined with a novel economic analysis of global financial asset ownership and patterns of liabilities. The politics are indeed reminiscent of the [...]
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Asia
How much worse can “It” get?
Last month closed with some far from comforting news about the state of the US housing market (sales and prices still falling), US financial institutions (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in need of rescue), Australian banks (NAB’s 90% write-down of its US CDO portfolio). Then ABS figures showed that retail sales had fallen “unexpectedly” by [...]
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Asia
Rise of the Chinese consumer?
There are signs that Chinese private consumption is on the rise – retail sales have been accelerated in real terms despite 8% inflation in the first half. Stripping out CPI, retail sales averaged about 14% in the first half and rose 15.9% in July. This plus the continued strength of exports are leading some people [...]
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Emerging Markets
Monetary policy in India: A shocking exposé?
Just finished looking at a new paper by Rudrani Bhattacharya, Ila Patnaik and Ajay Shah, titled “Early warnings of inflation in India.” This was a real eye-opener. The issue tackled in the paper is central to the conduct of monetary policy: how do you measure current inflation, and identify inflation pressures quickly? The headline figure [...]
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Asia
Vietnam Funds Rekindle Vietnam Fire
It seems like only yesterday when a foreign capital tsunami flooded Ho Chi Minh City funding new enterprises and encouraging the government to take the shackles off select blue-chip state-owned companies. The euphoria started as early as eight years ago when Vietnam’s domestic investors embraced capitalism after the country’s pioneer stock market, the Ho Chi [...]
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Emerging Markets
Understand GCC Inflation
The persistence rise in consumer price inflation in the six GCC economies has attracted a lot of attention over the past several years. Aside from the global rise in food and energy prcies, strong domestic credit growth (as well as loose money supply) and the prolonged dollar peg have come out as key factors behind [...]
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Asia
Old habits die hard …
At the first hint of a slowdown, the US tends to take steps — like a fiscal stimulus package — to support domestic demand. Technorati Profile Though to be fair, the US has also loosened monetary policy, and one of the ways monetary policy helps support the economy is through a weaker dollar and stronger [...]
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Asia
Are Indian inflation expectations anchored?
Keeping inflation expectations anchored has been a prominent part of the RBI’s public description of its inflation-fighting strategy. But what exactly does that mean? Expectations of short-term inflation have certainly gone up, as reflected in the relatively new survey of professional forecasters. But long-term inflation expectations are not too high. The median forecast for the [...]
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Asia
The Real Competition Behind the Olympic Games
The real competition lurking behind the upcoming Olympic games is between democratic capitalism and authoritarian capitalism. For years American policy toward China assumed that trade and economic growth would generate a large Chinese middle class, and this middle class would demand democratic reforms. We were right on the first part. The games will showcase a [...]
