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Emerging Market Channel: Latest Posts
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Emerging Markets
Russia May Share the Fate of the USSR
December 2011 marked twenty years since the disintegration of the Soviet Union; a collapse predetermined by the systematic flaws of the Soviet economic and political system. The Soviet institutions, which had mostly been formed at the turn of 1920s/1930s, were too rigid and unable to adapt to the challenges of the end of the twentieth [...]
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The Kapali Carsi
What’s Driving the Rise in Oil Prices?
The price of Brent Crude, the benchmark based on North Sea oil, fell $ 35 between April and June, but increases since then have taken about $ 25 of that back. According to many, reports that Israel will bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities are behind this surge. But do markets believe that this event is now [...]
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The Kapali Carsi
Turkish LIBOR (TRLIBOR) Is Safe!
Here’s guest blogger Ali G. (not the rapper, yeah yeah, I have to make this joke every time) again: Libor – London Interbank Offer Rate- is a set of rates for different currencies and maturities that is supposed to be the benchmark for some 800,000,000,000,000 USD (that is USD 800 trillion) worth of transactions according [...]
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The Kapali Carsi
Eagle-eyed economist eyes Turkey’s Olympic success
Loyal readers will know that economists love to poke their noses into more mundane matters than monetary policy or the current account, whether it be Crimean-Congo Fever or abortion policy. They also seem undeterred by their failure to predict the global crisis, or even more recently the European football champion. Their latest foray into forecasting [...]
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The Kapali Carsi
Severance pay in Turkey: Chains binding capitalists and proletarians
One of the “best” things about Turkish severance pay is that it literally “binds” employers and employees, although not exactly in solidarity. Here’s the intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, on Turkish severance pay reform. You can read the whole thing at the HDN website. For once, I don’t have a long [...]
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Asia
Has the Great Rebalancing Already Started?
The following was written a month ago for my newsletter but because of the virus problem I had on my site I wasn’t able to post it until today. China’s official GDP growth rate has fallen sharply – on Friday Beijing announced that GDP growth for the second quarter of 2012 was a lower-than-expected 7.6% [...]
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The Kapali Carsi
Results of the Wordcomplete Contest
I had held a small contest in my Desperate Housewives column from two weeks ago: I asked readers to complete the last sentence of my column and offered a wife-beater! :) as a prize to my favorite. I was supposed to conclude that right after the column, but things continued getting in the way. I [...]
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The Kapali Carsi
Turkey: All quiet on the (south) western front
It really is all quiet in Marmaris, where I am writing this column. After a stellar start to the season, tourist arrivals dropped off sharply in the second half of July, and most hotels are only one-half to two-thirds full. Here’s the intro. to last week’s latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, on the latest [...]
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Ed Dolan's Econ Blog
Will the Dutch Disease Kill Hopes Raised by Colombia’s Free Trade Agreement?
After a torturous journey through Congress, the United States-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement (CTPA), first signed in 2006, came into effect on May 15 of this year. The agreement has raised high hopes in Colombia, for which the United States is by far the largest trading partner. However, while the CTPA was fighting its way through [...]
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The Kapali Carsi
Is Turkey’s Current Account Adjustment Coming to a Halt?
Not if you’d look at the latest trade statistics. After all, at $ 7.2bn June trade deficit came in much lower than expectations of $ 7.9bn. But as they say, the devil is in the details, and the details paint a rather ugly picture. The first thing to note is that the fall in the [...]
