Just back from Sacred Heart School in Clonakilty, Cork. Met some extraordinary teachers, parents and students. Amazing work going on there.
14 minutes ago
Asia Channel: Latest Posts
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Asia
The Setting Sun – Japan’s Forgotten Debt Problems
In 1979, the publication of Harvard sociologist Ezra Vogel’s international best-selling book Japan as Number 1signalled the nation’s arrival as an economic power. Today, Japan’s industrial and economic decline is palpable. But in 2012, Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock average rose by around 23%. Much of the increase reflects faith in the reflation strategy of second time [...]
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Asia
Recognizing the Need for Economic Adjustment
In China, I have argued many times, high growth is no longer compatible with a strengthening balance sheet. If China is growing at a rate that approaches or exceeds five or six perent, it is probably a safe bet that debt is rising faster than debt servicing capacity. The good news is that the current leadership seems very [...]
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RGE Analysts
Das: Inflows to India Should Continue in 2013, Provided Adjustment Continues
In late December, RGE Managing Director Arnab Das sat down with Thompson Reuters to discuss the year ahead for India. Following strong inflows in 2012, Das noted that “the global environment has become much more supportive of risk-taking and fund flows to EMs, and India has benefited from that as a very high-beta play,” but [...]
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Asia
China to Dominate the 2013 Coal Market
China is the world’s largest coal producer and consumer and currently accounts for about half of the global coal consumption. The U.S. Energy Information Agency noted in its 2012 country analysis brief on China, “Coal supplied the vast majority (70 percent) of China’s total energy consumption of 90 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2009,” [...]
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Asia
China in Africa: Partners in the Year of the Snake
African exports to China have increased six-fold since 2000 alone, the bulk of it in oil, and this year, China surpassed the US and Europe as Africa’s largest trading partner. Starting from $11 billion in bilateral trade in 2000, Beijing racked up $160 billion dollars in trade with Africa by 2011, and for 2012 Chinese [...]
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Asia
The IMF on overinvestment
The IMF’s Il Houng Lee, Murtaza Syed, and Liu Xueyan have published a very interesting and widely noticed study called “Is China Over-Investing and Does it Matter?” In it they argue that there is strong evidence that China is overinvesting significantly. According to the abstract: Now close to 50 percent of GDP, this paper assesses the appropriateness [...]
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Asia
Missing The Big Japan Story
The potential exists for groundbreaking changes in Japanese economic policy – and I sense that Western journalists, caught up in the current celebration of central bankers, are missing the bigger story. In my opinion, a higher inflation target by the Bank of Japan is not particularly interesting. After all, the Bank of Japan can’t hit [...]
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Asia
Notable Weekend Developments
Yes, it is the holiday season. Yes, you are unlikely to be taking action with your investments. Yes, the morphing of what is into what will be continues uninterrupted. There were several developments over the weekend that will influence the direction of the markets in the days ahead, with the usual caution about the impact [...]
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Asia
Are Chinese Megacities Really Pricier Than New York or London?
Recently, media reports have focused on China’s “soaring” living costs, which presumably are encouraging expats to leave. Realities are more subtle. According to popular surveys, such as those by Mercer and the Economist (EIU), Beijing and Shanghai are pricier than New York and London, while Hong Kong is even more costly. EIU actually places [...]
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Asia
One Growth Model, Many Chinas: Guangdong, Chongqing, and China’s Regional Differences
After the 18th Party Congress, many observers in the West have been disillusioned by the Chinese leadership transition. Instead of the triumph of the Guangdong model, they believe Beijing will be ruled by conservative party elders who will shun reforms. They are wrong. China is moving toward reforms. Before the Congress, many observers in the [...]
