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Asia Channel: Latest Posts
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Asia
Making sense of what comes after the Olympics
The Olympics are finally over, and with a spectacular ending that reportedly had Jimmy Page performing “Whole Lotta Love”. I didn’t see the performance – I was in a park just south of the Olympic Stadium with three friends, trying to get a glimpse of the fireworks – but I am definitely curious to know [...]
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RGE Analysts
South and South-East Asia in the Midst of a Global Recession
(this piece is also featured on Nouriel’s Roubini Global EconoMonitor) In a recent analysis, Nouriel Roubini argued that the probability of a global recession has increased. Macro developments in the last few weeks suggest that now all of the G-7 economies are already in a recession or close to tipping into one. Other advanced economies [...]
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Asia
Emphases certifications as a means to building human capital
Given India’s terrible elementary and higher education system (ponder the implications of this also), a greater emphasis on certification rather than education might make a lot of sense. Employers want to know that a person has the correct knowledge. An exam should give employers the confidence that this is indeed the case. In India, young [...]
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Asia
The last few days of Olympic fever
The stock market had its best day in a long time, with the SSE Composite rising 7.6% on the day to close at 2522. Most of the run-up came in the morning, and several financial sector firms, which were the best performers, had to stop trading when they hit their 10% price-change limit, suggesting that [...]
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Asia
What export slowdown?
China’s July trade data is now out. Strong export growth (27% y/y) produced a much larger than expected trade surplus. Exports from May through July 2008 are running about 23% above exports from May through July 2007. That is pretty good in my book. The troubles of China’s textile sector simply may not be representative [...]
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Asia
Real estate loan growth may be slowing
The unexpected withdrawal by hurdler Liu Xiang from participation in the Olympics – because of a leg injury – has been a real emotional blow to many of my friends and students in China. Condolences to all. It is a disappointment to see such a great athlete unable to defend his title in his own [...]
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Asia
Anniversary of Nixon’s price controls
Today is an anniversary of sorts. Thirty-seven years ago, in 1971, President Nixon stunned the US by announcing the imposition of extensive wage and price controls in an effort to reverse rising inflation in the US. In retrospect it is pretty clear that the price and wage controls were unlikely to reverse several years of [...]
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Asia
Value-added in China’s export sector and China’s exposure to a global slump
Mark Thoma linked to a VoxEU article summarizing new work by Robert Koopman, Zhi Wang and Shang-Jin Wei on the “Chinese value-added” of China’s exports. They find that the Chinese value-added in China’s export sector is about 50% of the total, higher than some past estimates. They also find that the domestic value-added in China’s [...]
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Asia
How much worse can “It” get?
Last month closed with some far from comforting news about the state of the US housing market (sales and prices still falling), US financial institutions (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in need of rescue), Australian banks (NAB’s 90% write-down of its US CDO portfolio). Then ABS figures showed that retail sales had fallen “unexpectedly” by [...]
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Asia
Rise of the Chinese consumer?
There are signs that Chinese private consumption is on the rise – retail sales have been accelerated in real terms despite 8% inflation in the first half. Stripping out CPI, retail sales averaged about 14% in the first half and rose 15.9% in July. This plus the continued strength of exports are leading some people [...]
