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United States Channel: Latest Posts
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United States
U.S. Debt Ceiling: A Plan to Kick the Can?
House Republicans want to tie an increase in the debt ceiling due in September/October to a concrete process for corporate tax reform, as reported here and here. One idea is to couple a short-term debt limit increase to a mandate for the House to pass a tax-reform plan. The debt limit would increase further when the House passes its [...]
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United States
U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew Places Blame on Congress
Jack Lew really needs to get better at lying in public. So far, he’s making a hash of it. A Reuters story reports on Lew telling a series of whoppers: Dysfunction in Washington is one of the biggest drags on the U.S. economy, undermining confidence and crimping growth, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said on Tuesday. “One [...]
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United States
Heritage Assesses the Ever-Expanding Ever-Centralizing Federal Government Sector
In a graphically interesting discussion of the April employment situation release, James Sherk and Salim Furth write: State and local governments avoided the massive job losses of 2008 and 2009 that affected the private sector—these governments even grew slightly during the recession. But they have been gradually downsizing ever since. The federal government, by contrast, has expanded [...]
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United States
Great Graphic: US Jobs Market in One Picture
This Great Graphic was posted byRitchie King on Quartz. It succinctly provides the various components of the US labor market. There is no “real” unemployment rate. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has six different measures and they each measure a different aspect of unemployment. U1 measures the percentage of the labor forces that is without work for 15 [...]
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United States
The Seen and Unseen: Structural Budget Deficits Edition
On Friday I discussed the cyclically-adjusted U.S. budget deficit and asked any Keynesian to reconcile its decline with the steady growth of aggregate demand. Robert Waldman graciously replied, but he really didn’t answer my question. His response focused on the pace of the recovery and changes in the overall budget balance. My question was about thestructural budget balance. This distinction is [...]
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United States
Q2:2013 US GDP Nowcast
Second-quarter US GDP is expected to increase 2.9% (real seasonally adjusted annual rate), according to the The Capital Spectator’s average econometric nowcast. This is an initial estimate that uses limited Q2 data and so the projection is a preliminary review that will be revised several times as new economic data arrives. The final nowcast will [...]
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Ed Dolan's Econ Blog
US Unemployment Rate Falls to 7.5 Percent, Strong Upward Revisions for Job Growth
The report on the U.S. employment situation for April released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics contained some good news, with the unemployment rate falling to 7.5 percent, its lowest since late 2008. Payroll jobs rose by a better than expected 165,000, and upward revisions to previous months made job market performance for the [...]
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United States
April Payrolls Rebound
Maybe the spring slowdown isn’t as slow as we thought. Private-sector payrolls increased by a net 176,000 in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, or roughly in line with expectations, the Labor Department reports. In addition, March’s initially estimated 95,000 increase has been substantially revised up to a 154,000 gain. In other words, the odds still look favorable for expecting modest [...]
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United States
The April Jobs Report Shows Continued Slow Growth, Bought at Great Cost
Summary: The news media focuses on the month-to-month changes in the jobs report, which consist mostly of noise. Strong months confirm the optimists; weak months confirm the pessimists. In fact the trend of growth remains the real story, with the US economy near stall speed — supported only (like the other developed nations) by massive multi-year fiscal and monetary stimulus. [...]
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United States
April Employment Report Preview
Recent economic data, especially since mid-March, has taken a turn for the worse. Initial jobless claims have shown fluctuations that defied seasonal adjustment processes. Just as I (accurately) suggested last month, it is a time for caution. I will elaborate on my reasoning in the conclusion, but let us first review the expectations for Friday’s report. [...]
