Lhr very empty except for areas watching the match... Though oddly there is pictures of greenery everywhere (gardening month??)
10 minutes ago
Emerging Market Channel: Latest Posts
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The Kapali Carsi
Quantitative easing III: Boon or bane for Turkey?
As you may (or may not) know, Economonitor is running a special topic this week: “Is QE3 harmful or beneficial to other countries?”. Therefore, as their in-house Turkey blogger, I decided to write about the same topic in my Monday Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column- hitting one bird with two stones, as we Turks say:)… [...]
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Emerging Markets
Déjà Vu, All Over Again: QE3 and Developmental Central Banking (Part 2)
I really appreciate the comments on my recent post on QE3 and developmental central banking, particularly the detailed piece by Thomas Grennes and Andris Strazds (Can The Fed Kill Two Birds With One Stone?). I would like to clarify some points of my original blog that probably were not that obvious. I would summarize the [...]
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Asia
Chinese Leadership Transition: From Investment-Driven Growth to Consumption
(Slightly modified from the original, published by China-US Focus, Nov 6, 2012) As the Party Congress begins, the momentum increases for structural reforms in China. On Thursday, November 8 – only a day after the U.S. presidential election – the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will begin in Beijing. It is [...]
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Emerging Markets
Iran’s Untouchable Energy Exports
Yves here. Media reports in the US stress how tightening sanctions against Iran, particularly on banks, are increasingly isolating Iran, leading its currency to fall sharply. This article describes a key break in the cordon, that of electricity exports. But Iran’s major source of foreign exchange, its official dollar oil-related payments, via Standard Chartered, were roughly [...]
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Emerging Markets
Can Non-State Service Delivery Undermine Governments?
Whether it is in the U.S. presidential election campaign or as a result of the debt crisis in Europe, people on both sides of the Atlantic are debating the role of the state. Do we need more government or less of it? Do we want more public services provided by the state and funded with [...]
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Asia
When the Growth Model Changes, Abandon the Correlations
Chiwoong Lee at Goldman Sachs has a new report out (“China vs. 1970s Japan”, September 25, 2012) in which he predicts that China’s long-term growth rate will drop to 7.5-8.5%. I disagree very strongly with his forecast, of course, and expect China’s growth rate over the next decade to average less than half that number, [...]
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The Kapali Carsi
Friday I’m in love (with the Central Bank of Turkey)
I could not think of a better inaugural Friday column than Turkish monetary policy, given my extensive coverage of the topic. That is partly the Central Bank’s fault, as they have introduced quite a bit of innovation to a field usually deemed boring. Here’s the intro. to my Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, where I [...]
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Asia
The East Grows Only Because the West Consumes…It’s a Hypothesis
An abiding belief held by many about the global economy is that the East is one gigantic Foxconn-shaped, steroid-boosted manufacturing facility, pumping out iPhones, shoes, clothing, refrigerators, air-conditioners, and defective toys that its own people could never afford. In this narrative, the only reason that measured Eastern GDP shows any kind of life is because [...]
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The Kapali Carsi
Turkey Zindabad or, ‘in the bag’: Is Turkey getting investment grade soon?
Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way. Here’s the intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, where I use the Tolstoy analogy to discuss how Turkish upgrade rumors created an euphoric mood in markets last week, and whether those expectations are valid. Here is the summary [...]
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Emerging Markets
Connecting Wagons: Why and How to Help Lagging Regions Catch Up
If it weren’t for the economic performance of China, Brazil and other emerging markets, the global economic slump following the 2008 financial crisis would have been much worse. Not by chance, prospects for the global economy became gloomier this year when those economies showed signs of decreasing resilience against the downward pull from advanced countries. [...]
