Emerging Market Channel: Latest Posts
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Emerging Markets
Brazilian Competitiveness: Folia and Hangover
As the Carnival in Brazil kicked off last weekend, Brazilians were ready for a party. They have reasons to celebrate. Despite a lackluster GDP performance in the last two years, unemployment rates remain at record low levels. Poverty rates and income inequality have diminished steadily now for more than a decade. As soon as the [...]
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Emerging Markets
GCC: How to Create Jobs for Nationals?
The GCC is growing, helped by crude production and expansionary policies. Despite the sluggish global outlook, the Eurozone recession, and Asia’s deceleration, the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates – are growing the fastest in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region [...]
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The Kapali Carsi
Turkish Monetary policy’s ‘Groundhog Day’
I wasn’t planning on writing about monetary policy, but reader comments seem to hint that some of the steps taken by the Central Bank at its rate-setting meeting on Jan. 22 were unclear. Here’s my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, on last Tuesday’s Central Bank of Turkey rate-setting decision, where I go over the [...]
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The Kapali Carsi
Irrational exuberance a la Turca
As I argued in my Jan. 11 column and later at my blog, last week’s rally in Turkish assets was caused by money flowing into emerging markets. Negative economic news, such as lower growth forecasts from the World Bank and Germany, tampered with capital inflows this week. As a result, while emerging markets’ stocks fell [...]
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Emerging Markets
Macro-Prudential Policies in Turkey
Turkey’s economy has long been subject to boom-bust cycles linked to capital flows. And while the Turkish banking system continues to perform well, it faces some structural vulnerabilities that can pose financial stability risks. In common with peer countries, Turkey has been developing and implementing a macroprudential policy (MPP) framework, which has had some success [...]
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The Kapali Carsi
I expect you to die, Mr. (Turkish) Bond
That’s what the villain Auric Goldfinger tells 007 when the latter asks, “Do you expect me to talk?” in the Bond movie Goldfinger. This is exactly how I feel about Turkish bonds. This is the intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, where I argue that the ultra-low Turkish bond yields are not [...]
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Emerging Markets
Kenyan Oil, Hot and Getting Hotter: Interview with Taipan’s Maxwell Birley
Kenya has become the hottest oil and gas venue in East Africa since big discoveries were made in the country’s virgin oilfields last April. All eyes are on Kenya in 2013 to see how quickly–and economically they can develop those discoveries into production. Nairobi based Taipan Resources Inc. (TPN-TSXV; TAIPF-PINK) is the 4th largest acreage owner [...]
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Ed Dolan's Econ Blog
Can Lithuania’s New Government Meet the Economic Challenges Ahead?
Commentators often portray the Baltic countries as laboratories for testing the effects of austerity under fixed exchange rates. Although they share many common traits, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have each followed distinctive paths during the global economic crisis. Estonia maintained tighter fiscal discipline going into the crisis, helping it to win entry into the Euro. [...]
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The Kapali Carsi
Turkish economists to shut up – or get locked up
I had just sat down to write my predictions on the Turkish economy and markets Friday afternoon when I realized I could go to jail for that. Bloomberg reported Jan. 4 that Société Générale, a French bank, had “ordered employees to cease commentary on Turkey pending a review of new legislation that threatens up to [...]
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The Kapali Carsi
The year of economic surprises for Turkey
Turkish economic data surprised in 2012. The best way to show that would be to compare expectations of economic variables from the Central Bank’s Survey of Expectations with actual realizations. Here is the intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, where I summarize the Turkish economy in 2012, as best I can within [...]
