China's new ambassador in Washington on revisionist powers—and why the United States is lucky: http://t.co/vxqeckOed6
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Emerging Market Channel: Latest Posts
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Emerging Markets
What Has Changed in Emerging Markets?
(from my colleague Ilan Solot ) 1) The Bank of Korea is becoming more independent 2) We expect the Brazilian Central Bank to start hiking by 25 bp in May 3) Israel intervened to weaken the shekel for the first time since July 2011 4) Chile is stepping up its FX intervention rhetoric 5) Mexico suspends [...]
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Asia
The Philippines as a BRIC Successor
Recently, the BRICS nations met in South Africa. Due to severe debt crises in the advanced nations, the growth prospects in these economies are no longer immune to the turmoil in the West. Among the emerging economies, the Philippines is best-placed for an upgrade. It is favorably positioned to sustain growth in an exceptionally grim [...]
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Asia
China Sovereign Wealth Fund’s Shifting Strategy
China Investment Corporation (CIC), the country’s main sovereign wealth fund, posted a 10.65% return on its overseas investment in 2012, registering an above 5% cumulative annualized return since its establishment in 2007. This is a significant improvement compared with the 4.3% loss last year, the fund’s worst performance in 5 years. As a young member [...]
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Emerging Markets
Argentina and the Presentation to the Second Circuit US Court of Appeals
Argentina’s debt crisis of 2001/2002 was a profound and painful one. The 2005 restructuring proposal reflected the difficulties suffered by the country (see my blog http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2008/09/some-reflections-on-argentinas-debt-restructuring/). The acceptance reached about 74%, therefore there was still a substantial percentage of holdouts. Sometime in 2006 or 2007, and for reasons that still escape me, people from an [...]
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Emerging Markets
Sustaining African-Chinese Cooperation
An abbreviated version of the author’s “Sustaining African-Chinese Cooperation,” BusinessDay Nigeria, March 25, 2013 Ever since the Bandung Conference in 1955, China and several nations in Africa have had a special relationship. The Afro-Asian meeting was one of the first steps toward the anti-colonial Non-Aligned Movement, which Indonesia’s first president Sukarno named the “newly emerging [...]
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Emerging Markets
Scenes From A Central Bank: A Turkish Tale in Two Acts
In mid 2010 the Turkish central bank decided to introduce a policy that increased uncertainty in interest rates hoping that would stop foreign investors who were pouring money into the country in search of a quick buck. That’s right. ‘Keep calm and carry on’ was replaced by ‘Keep them guessing.’ The Turkish economy was overheating. Money poured into [...]
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The Kapali Carsi
Four Passover Seder questions
I would like to celebrate the Passover and Easter of my heathen readers by carrying an old tradition to my column. Jews remember their exodus from Egypt at the Seder, which marks the beginning of Passover. During the dinner, which was also Jesus’ Last Supper, the youngest child at the table asks four questions about [...]
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The Kapali Carsi
Is the music about to stop again?
Yep, at least according to the Central Bank of Turkey: Jeremy Irons’ character in the movie Margin Call, the CEO of an investment bank, reveals at one point why he “earns the big bucks”: “I’m here for one reason and one reason alone. I’m here to guess what the music might do a week, a [...]
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Emerging Markets
Peña Nieto’s Public Security Mirage and The Perils of Diversion
One of the key failures of President Calderon’s efforts against organized crime was the lack of an effective communications strategy. Calderon embarked on a highly complex “war” against organized crime but consistently failed to inform Mexican citizens of the justifications for fighting. When a country goes to war, the government needs to continuously keep the [...]
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The Kapali Carsi
The Central Bank of Turkey manages to surprise yet again!
The Central Bank of Turkey managed to surprise again by cutting its overnight lending rate, the ceiling of the interest rare corridor, a full one percentage point and not hiking reserve requirement ratios (RRRs). Of the 16economists surveyed by business channel CNBC-e, only 3 were expecting a cut, and all only 25bp. Similarly, only 2 [...]
