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Emerging Market Channel: Latest Posts
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Asia
China: The Morphing Dragon
The Chinese economy has changed dramatically over the last three decades. While its per-capita income was only a third of that of Sub-Saharan Africa in 1978, it has now reached an upper-middle income status, lifting more than half a billion people out of poverty. The numbers are dramatic: per capita income has doubled for more [...]
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Emerging Markets
Why Russia Should Change Its Immigration Policy
Today, there is a consensus among Russian economists that the country’s government should encourage labor migration from the former Soviet Union. Such respected experts as Sergey Guriev, the rector of the New Economic School in Moscow, and Aleh Tsyvinski, a professor of economics at Yale University, strongly oppose the establishment of barriers to migration from the Central [...]
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Efraim Chalamish's Economic Development and Security Blog
Reflections on Chinese investments in the U.S.
What do you get when the largest developing country in the world is investing more and more in the world’s largest developed economy? Lots of question marks and a few deals. Chinese investment in the U.S. market is a hot topic. U.S. companies and entrepreneurs are trying to understand the best way to access Chinese [...]
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The Kapali Carsi
Mayday on May Day in Turkey (and the U.S.)
As an avid fan of Beşiktaş sports club, I am used to regularly getting teargassed by the police. Therefore, I did not make a big deal of it when my friend told me he and his wife had been introduced to pepper spray on May Day. After all, as our interior minister noted some time [...]
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Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets: What has Changed
This is what has changed in the EM space, in our view: 1) Thailand: Officials are stepping up action and rhetoric against THB appreciation 2) India: We are becoming more optimistic that the INR will finally start to recover 3) Mexico: Banxico is sounding dovish again, but caution is needed in interpreting comments 4) Indonesia: [...]
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Emerging Markets
Growing After the Crisis: Boosting Productivity in Developing Countries
Spring in DC draws more than just tourists. Last week, government officials, policy makers, civil society representatives and other thought leaders converged to take stock of the global economy during the IMF-World Bank spring meetings. The tone in the hallways was optimistic, but cautious. Growth in advanced economies still remains tepid, weighed down by lingering [...]
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Asia
The Lethal Lemons on the Road to Bangladesh
I wrote yesterday about the “control frauds” (in which the person controlling a seemingly legitimate entity uses it as a “weapon” to defraud) that target purchasers of bad quality goods (“lemons”) and employees. The example I used to explain these concepts was the collapse of the building housing garment factories in Bangladesh. As I write, there are terrible [...]
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The Kapali Carsi
The expansionary fiscal contraction that worked
Despite the International Monetary Fund/World Bank Spring Meetings, as well as a G20 get-together, the biggest economic news of the past two weeks was the mistake in an influential economic study. Here is the intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column. The study is of course the Reinhart/Rogoff (R^2) paper. I am sure [...]
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The Kapali Carsi
The economic consequences of the peace (for Turkey)
John Maynard Keynes wrote “The Economic Consequences of the Peace” one year after the Great War ended. Misconceptions on the economic consequences of Turkey’s peace with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) led me to act now. This is is the intro. to one of my recent Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) columns. I am sure that [...]
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Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets: What Has Changed?
This is what has changed in the EM space, in our view: 1) Brazil is hiking, but reluctantly 2) Turkey is cutting, and resolutely 3) China will further relax the FX trading band 4) Philippines will further relax FX trading limits 5) Korea announces a big stimulus package 6) Colombia announces a medium stimulus package [...]
