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Category Archive: United States
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Manufacturing Growth Slowed In March … Maybe
The manufacturing sector’s growth slowed in March, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The composite reading for ISM’s Manufacturing index dropped to 51.3, down from 54.2 in February. Values above the neutral 50 mark indicate growth. The index for new orders for manufactured goods also declined, according to ISM data, slumping to 51.4 from 57.8 previously. [...]
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Latest US GDP Data Show Economy Weak at Year’s End but Corporate Profits Near Record High
The latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis confirm that the U.S. economy barely grew in Q4 2012. However, despite the weak economy, corporate profits as a share of GDP hit their second highest level ever. Based on the latest data, the BEA revised Q4 real GDP growth upward from an annual rate of [...]
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Economic Data Shows Underlying Weakness
As the markets have rallied over the last couple of months one of the primary “hopes” by mainstream analysts, economists, and even the Fed, has been the hope that the economy will begin to show real signs of life. While the continued injections of monetary liquidity have inflated asset prices to previous peaks; unfortunately the same cannot [...]
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Understanding the Housing Bubble
A key reason that I was insufficiently worried in 2005 about bad mortgage loans being made at the time was that the people who funded the loans– most importantly, the packagers and buyers of private-label mortgage-backed securities– had more motivation and resources to evaluate the risks accurately than I did. That they made an incredibly [...]
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Chicago Fed: Economic Activity ‘Improved’ In February
US economic growth remained “above trend” last month, according to the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, a weighted average of 85 indicators. For the fourth consecutive month, the three-month average of the index (CFNAI-MA3) posted a reading above zero: +0.09 in February. That’s a modest slowdown from January’s revised +0.28, although the dip is in line with last [...]
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The Distortions of U.S. Intelligence and U.S. International Strategy
Changes are necessary in U.S. foreign policy during the President’s second term. But getting those changes in the face of what appears to be a fairly impregnable White House seems unlikely. The President’s Intelligence Advisory Board composed of present and past senior foreign policy figures, have cautioned that U.S. Intelligence has become distorted, beyond recognition. [...]
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Is Paranoia Driving Fracking Fears?
Around 100 people crammed into a tiny community center in West Michigan this week for a town hall meeting on hydraulic fracturing. Michigan ranks 15th in the nation in terms of natural gas reserves, with its Antrim play in the northern Lower Peninsula producing around 126 billion cubic feet per year in 2009. Overseas, residents [...]
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Fifth-Year Rally Precedents
Click to enlarge How have markets done in the 5th year of a bull run? The chart above comes from Jeffrey Kleintop, LPL Financial’s chief market strategist. The bull market that began in March 2009 is the seventh to last at least four years since World War II. Of those seven, only four ran for [...]
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Eric Holder Makes it Official: Crime Is The Economic Model
It’s official. The nation’s top cop, Attorney General Eric Holder, has clearly articulated the administration’s policy on crime at the biggest banks: it will not be prosecuted. Indeed, as we’ve long expected, the criminals in top management will not be investigated, they will not be indicted, they will not be prosecuted, and they will [...]
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Bizarre New York Times Article on Lousy Finances of the Young Gives Undue Prominence to Housing as an Investment
It may seem churlish to hector the New York Times for turning its attention to the sorry financial prospects of the young. But this sort of attention would be more useful if it shed more light, rather than wistfully evoking standards from the old normal. The article last week, Younger Generations Lag Parents in Wealth-Building, points [...]
