The Distributional Consequences of Preferential Trade Liberalization: Firm-Level Evidence

The Distributional Consequences of Preferential Trade Liberalization: Firm-Level Evidence

photo: Dirk Dallas Abstract We analyze data covering the near universe of U.S. foreign direct investment and disaggregated tariff data for all preferential trade agreements (PTA) signed by the United States. We find that preferential trade liberalization disproportionately benefits the largest and most productive multinationals. Specifically, our results indicate that U.S. preferential tariffs increase sales to […]

Will Migration Across the Mediterranean Dominate Migration Across the Rio Grande?

Will Migration Across the Mediterranean Dominate Migration Across the Rio Grande?

The massive migration from Mexico to the United States that began in the 1980s and ended in 2007 was one of the largest in history (Hanson and McIntosh). Nine years after the mass migration, the issue remains politically sensitive, and Donald Trump’s advocacy of building a Wall along the southern border contributed to his winning […]

Russia And Saudi Arabia Playing A Risky Game Ahead Of OPEC’s Meeting

Russia And Saudi Arabia Playing A Risky Game Ahead Of OPEC’s Meeting

Having suffered massive oil revenue shortages and budget deficits since the oil price collapse in 2014, Russia and Saudi Arabia have now agreed to cooperate on stabilizing the oil market. What this “cooperation” will actually mean – freezing production levels, cutting them, ramping them up or keeping the status quo, remains to be seen. The […]

The Search for an Effective Macro Policy

The Search for an Effective Macro Policy

photo: Nicolas Raymond Economic growth in the advanced economies seems stalled. This summer the IMF projected increases in GDP in these economies of 1.8% for both 2016 and 2017. This included growth of 2.2% this year in the U.S. and 2.5% in 2017, 1.6% and 1.4% in the Eurozone in 2016 and 2017 respectively, and 0.3% […]

Why Gazprom is Losing Markets?

Why Gazprom is Losing Markets?

photo: Ricardo Cabral Fares Kilzie – CREON Energy, Chairman of the Board of Directors Kirill Rodionov – IndexBox Marketing, Oil&Gas Analyst This summer, Alexey Miller began his fourth tenure as Gazprom’s CEO. In February, he was reelected without a dissenting vote by the company’s board of directors. That was hardly a surprise; Miller is trusted by Vladimir […]

The Duterte Whirlwind: The Reawakening of the Philippines

The Duterte Whirlwind: The Reawakening of the Philippines

photo: canencia The new Philippine president is waging a tough drug war, pushing economic growth domestically and greater pragmatism in foreign policy that could contribute to Southeast Asia’s future. Internationally, Rodrigo Duterte, the new president of the Philippines, has been portrayed as a “dangerous populist”. That’s a gross caricature. In the elections, he leaned on the […]

Global Outlook: The Next Five Years

Global Outlook: The Next Five Years

Global outlook: the next five years Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi Key takeaway – Over the next five years, mega-trends will not support an acceleration of global growth. Consumption, investment and productivity will remain sluggish, inflation low. Macro fundamentals are weak: high debt and unemployment will constrain performance. Developed markets (DMs) will stagnate and emerging markets (EMs) […]

Turkey’s Failed Coup: What’s Next?

Turkey’s Failed Coup: What’s Next?

photo: RadikalBlog Key takeaway – In Turkey, a coup attempt failed in less than 12 hours. President Erdoğan has declared that “the government is in control” and he is “not going to compromise”. What is next? Likely, Erdoğan’s popularity will increase, and constitutional changes will lead to a presidential system. Instability will continue, crackdowns on […]

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