India, China face trade choices

India, China face trade choices

photo: Dirk Dallas In the coming years, China and India must decide whether their bilateral ties will be based on economic cooperation, political facilitation and strategic trust – or economic walls, political barriers and strategic containment. In early October, militants attacked an Indian army camp in Indian-administered Kashmir, killing a soldier. In this contested region, the […]

Italy: Can Reforms Lift Growth Prospects?

Italy: Can Reforms Lift Growth Prospects?

Key takeaway – The Italian economy is large, relatively diversified and sturdy. Historically, growth has been driven by external factors (e.g.: the “economic miracle” after World War II) or political efforts (e.g.: competitive devaluations and fiscal spending between the 1970s and the 1990s). For decades, innovation and international competitiveness lagged most peers. After joining the […]

Russia And Saudi Arabia Playing A Risky Game Ahead Of OPEC’s Meeting

Russia And Saudi Arabia Playing A Risky Game Ahead Of OPEC’s Meeting

Having suffered massive oil revenue shortages and budget deficits since the oil price collapse in 2014, Russia and Saudi Arabia have now agreed to cooperate on stabilizing the oil market. What this “cooperation” will actually mean – freezing production levels, cutting them, ramping them up or keeping the status quo, remains to be seen. The […]

Time for Bold Economic Moves and Tough Security in Nigeria

Time for Bold Economic Moves and Tough Security in Nigeria

  photo: Global Panorama As Nigeria’s economy is contracting, domestic and global headwinds ensure that downside risks will escalate. Without aggressive economic moves and harsh security measures, the economy could face a disastrous free fall. In 2015, government deficit soared to almost 4 percent of GDP and exports fell 40 percent, which led to a current […]

The Market for Climate Resilience: Hidden in Plain Sight?

The Market for Climate Resilience: Hidden in Plain Sight?

Households, businesses, and communities everywhere are vulnerable to a growing array of risks related to climate change. These risks arise as a result of climate variability, caused primarily by the long-term emission of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide. Climate risks are manifold: floods, drought, extreme winds, heat waves, sea level rise, invasive pests, and wildfires, […]

Ensuring Water Access in the Face of Climate Change

Ensuring Water Access in the Face of Climate Change

Actors across a watershed often have very different needs, with upstream landowners trying to exploit natural resources, such as forests and grasslands, without necessarily taking into account how their actions might impact downstream water users. Incentive-based conservation mechanisms, such as Reciprocal Watershed Agreements (RWAs) or Payment for Environmental Services (PES), attempt to align incentives across […]

Part 4: QE Forever?

Part 4: QE Forever?

photo: 401(K) 2012 Compounding the problems of ineffectiveness and toxic side effects, current policies cannot be reversed easily, if at all. Withdrawing fiscal stimulus would lead to sharp slowdowns in economic activity. Reduction in government services and higher taxes accelerates contraction in disposable incomes, especially in an environment of stagnant incomes and uncertain employment. In turn, […]

Part 3: The Ineffectiveness of Economic Policy

Part 3: The Ineffectiveness of Economic Policy

photo: Nicolas Raymond While the central bank and government policies have stabilised conditions, they have not restored growth or created sufficient inflation to address the world’s debt problems. As Helmuth von Moltke, a 19th century head of the Prussian army, observed: “No battle plan ever survives first contact with the enemy”. Given that the bulk of […]

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