Beyond the Ballot: Turkey’s Economy at the Crossroads

Beyond the Ballot: Turkey’s Economy at the Crossroads

Turkey has been approaching a crossroads for some time now. Soon enough it will have to choose a direction. On April 16, 2017 Turks will vote in a referendum on President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s proposed constitutional amendment that would shift the country’s power center from a parliamentary system to a presidential one. If successful, not […]

Return of Sovereign France- Europe’s Changing Landscape

Return of Sovereign France- Europe’s Changing Landscape

photo: Nathan Hughes Hamilton  In France, President Hollande’s utter failure to foster broad consensus for structural reforms has paved the way for a contested election. While public debate focuses on Emmanuel Macron as the savior of France, the real story is that Marine Le Pen’s agenda has shifted the French political landscape. Before TV debates, the […]

The Incidence of the Border Tax – EU Multinationals Win, US Multinationals Lose

The Incidence of the Border Tax – EU Multinationals Win, US Multinationals Lose

  photo: GotCredit The destination based cash flow tax (DBCFT) with border tax adjustment (BTA) as outlined in the so-called Ryan blueprint[1] (named after its main proponent Rep. Paul Ryan) is perhaps the most exciting policy proposal of the last decade – and it is certainly the least understood. There is a wide variety of contradictory […]

Le Pen-ization of France: Europe’s Changing Landscape

Le Pen-ization of France: Europe’s Changing Landscape

photo: Dennis Jarvis In France, President Hollande’s utter failure to foster broad consensus for structural reforms has paved the way for the most contested election in decades. While public debate focuses on the 2nd round winner, the real story is that Marine Le Pen’s agenda has already shifted the French political landscape. In recent polls, the […]

Italy’s Predicament is Europe’s Predicament

Italy’s Predicament is Europe’s Predicament

photo: Elliott Brown Durand and Villemot (2016) examine two nncreasingly likely Eurozone scenarios – a single country exit and the complete breakup – concluding that while both scenarios should be taken seriously, their consequences should not be exaggerated. In particular, in the case Italy were to leave the euro – the scenario I will henceforth call […]

The Coming Italian or French Phases of Europe’s Economic Crisis

The Coming Italian or French Phases of Europe’s Economic Crisis

Low interest rates, continuing injections of liquidity by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), fiscal stimulus to varying degrees assisted by low government borrowing costs, a fall in the Euro and sharply lower energy prices are hiding deep-seated and unresolved problems in Europe. Despite the ongoing Greek drama which is incapable of resolution, the European crisis […]

Greece, the IMF and the Euro

Greece, the IMF and the Euro

photo: John D. Carnessiotis Talk about possible trade wars with China and the Brexit negotiations has crowded the Greek debt crisis out of the headlines, but a new decision point is approaching. It is possible that this time the beleaguered Greek government will announce a withdrawal from the Eurozone, if only to drive home the point to other European […]

Do Country Ties of Credit Rating Agencies Matter in the Sovereign Rating Process?

Do Country Ties of Credit Rating Agencies Matter in the Sovereign Rating Process?

Worse ratings by U.S. rating agencies for European sovereigns no argument for European rating agency The predominant Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) Moody’s Investor Services (Moody’s), Standard and Poor’s (S&P), and Fitch Ratings (Fitch) have been criticized by leading European politicians for taking an anti-European perspective during the European sovereign debt crisis. At the same time, […]

Why Is Gazprom’s Output on the Decline?

Why Is Gazprom’s Output on the Decline?

photo: Ricardo Cabral The monopoly is forced to adjust supplies against falling demand on the Russian and European markets. In the past year, Gazprom has set a new anti-record for gas production. Based on the results for the past 12 months, its production volume is set to 409.4 billion cubic metres in the wake of the […]

Has the Embargo Damaged Farmers in Europe?

Has the Embargo Damaged Farmers in Europe?

photo: Wayne Stadler EU food products exporters have not been affected as much from the counter-sanctions as Russian consumers. In November, at an ‘Action Forum’ of the All-Russia People’s Front, Vladimir Putin promised not to reverse the food embargo for as long as possible. Russia had been forced to restrict the import of farm produce in […]

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