Variance Estimators That Minimize MSE - Dave Giles http://t.co/cOBqFCGraG
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Category Archive: Emerging Markets
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Understanding the Central Bank of Turkey: Targeting Volatility, Not Inflation
I started the year at Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) with a column on Turkish monetary policy, and out of the 63 columns I wrote this year, 18 were directly on monetary policy. Therefore, is only appropriate I end the year with a column on Turkish monetary policy. During his presentation of the bank’s 2013 Monetary [...]
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The IMF on overinvestment
The IMF’s Il Houng Lee, Murtaza Syed, and Liu Xueyan have published a very interesting and widely noticed study called “Is China Over-Investing and Does it Matter?” In it they argue that there is strong evidence that China is overinvesting significantly. According to the abstract: Now close to 50 percent of GDP, this paper assesses the appropriateness [...]
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Mission: Impossible – Christmas Turkey
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its Article IV consultation report for Turkey late Dec. 21. These documents are scrutinized by Turkish policymakers before publication. However, reading between the lines can still reveal a lot about where the Fund and the government differ on economic policy. Here’s the intro to my latest Hurriyet Daily News [...]
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Turkey: The Return of the Consumer
One of the most confusing and puzzling, or confuzzling, aspects of the Turkish economy of late has been the paths taken by the producer and the consumer, which were diverging until recently. Here is the intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column. I argue, based on the latest leading indicators, that this dilemma [...]
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Who will help Turkey out (of Junk): S&P, Moody’s or Mayans?
I was planning to do guest columns once and actually had a guest blogger for a while. As a fellow blogger, I know that the hardest part of blogging is to commit, and so when Ali G. (not the rapper) stopped blogging, I wasn’t surprised at all. While I would happily welcome him back anytime, [...]
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Are Chinese Megacities Really Pricier Than New York or London?
Recently, media reports have focused on China’s “soaring” living costs, which presumably are encouraging expats to leave. Realities are more subtle. According to popular surveys, such as those by Mercer and the Economist (EIU), Beijing and Shanghai are pricier than New York and London, while Hong Kong is even more costly. EIU actually places [...]
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Rate Decision Leaks From the Central Bank of Turkey
There was a huge uproar when the Turkish Statistical Institute released November inflation figures 17 minutes early by accident exactly two weeks ago. No one reacted when Central Bank of Turkey Gov. Erdem Başçı revealed tomorrow’s rate-setting decision a week early.: Here’s the intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, where I discuss [...]
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Change of guard at Turkish economy’s helm
On Monday, I submitted my post for the Economonitor special “The biggest risk for 2013 that no one but me is worried about”. Then, yesterday, I had a detailed post on one of the risks I mentioned in Monday’s post, a possible row between President Abdullah Gul and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on who [...]
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What to Watch for 2013: MENA Edition
2012 has been quite another rollercoaster year for the Middle East, including rocky transitions, flareups and protracted conflict. Meanwhile the region finally started benefitting from the lagged effect of higher oil prices. 2013 will no doubt bring more of the same, particularly as populations and leaders struggle to begin responding to economic grievances. Clockwise from [...]
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Turkey- Cemaat Wars: The Emperor Strikes Back
I submitted my post for the Economonitor trending topic “The biggest risk for 2013 that no one but me is worried about” on Monday. In that post, I argued that Turkish political risks were being ignored and therefore unpriced at the moment. One of the political risks I mentioned there was the possibility of internal [...]
