Capital Flows and Financial Activity in Commodity Exporters

Capital Flows and Financial Activity in Commodity Exporters

photo: Nic Taylor Emerging markets and developing economies have struggled in recent years to regain the growth rates of the last decade before the global financial crisis. The slowdown has been particularly evident in commodity-exporters that face declining prices. The World Bank’s most recent Global Economic Prospects, for example, projects growth for those countries of only 0.4% […]

Tales of Emerging Markets

Tales of Emerging Markets

Emerging market economies (EM) as a special class of financial assets have recently been subject to two competing tales. On the one hand, there is evidence of continued financial deepening and further integration within the global financial system, while the offer of higher yields remains hard to find elsewhere. On the other hand, there are […]

Turkey: The Banking Sector Needs Profitability-Enhancing Reforms

Turkey: The Banking Sector Needs Profitability-Enhancing Reforms

photo: Jeremy Vandel Key takeaway – Turkey’s economy remains resilient, but low savings hinder growth prospects and weaken the banking sector. Turkish banks – essential for economic growth and job creation – need to raise additional capital by end-2016, but suffer from declining profitability. Meanwhile, macro risks are rising, driven by geopolitical risks, foreign exchange (FX) […]

Despite Political Headwinds, Turkey’s Economy Remains Resilient

Despite Political Headwinds, Turkey’s Economy Remains Resilient

photo: Moyan Brenn Key takeaway – Global and local tensions are taking a toll on Turkey’s political stability. The conflict in Syria, terrorist attacks, the refugee crisis, and President Erdoğan’s divisive efforts to transfer executive powers to the presidency are breeding instability. Over the past year, the investment climate has worsened. Investors’ confidence is diminishing. The […]

The Struggle for Brazil- and Against the BRICS

The Struggle for Brazil- and Against the BRICS

While international media focuses on Brazil’s mass demonstrations against corruption, efforts behind the façade precipitate regime change, restoration of a pre-Lula order, and a struggle against the BRICS nations. The U.S. feels threatened by an era of multipolarity, which deeply implicates China, and other emerging economies. In August 2016, Rio de Janeiro should host South […]

Toward Nigeria’s Takeoff

Toward Nigeria’s Takeoff

After decolonization, Nigeria was expected to industrialize fast in order to benefit from rapid growth and increasing prosperity. Yet, that “growth miracle” has still not materialized. Perhaps it is time to learn from the right lessons. “We have crude oil, but you cannot go to filling station and get fuel refined in Nigeria, except we […]

Nigeria, IMF and the Least Bad Policies

Nigeria, IMF and the Least Bad Policies

photo: Nicolas Raymond As Nigeria’s economic challenges are rising, the IMF has been increasingly vocal. What is really needed are policies that are in the interest of most Nigerians. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Nigeria’s external challenges are substantial and deteriorating. Due to the reliance on oil revenues, the general government deficit doubled […]

The IMF and the Next Crisis

The IMF and the Next Crisis

photo: World Bank Photo Collection The IMF has issued a warning that “increasing financial market turbulence and falling asset prices” are weakening the global economy, which already faces headwinds due to the “…modest recovery in advanced economies, China’s rebalancing, the weaker-than-expected growth impact from lower oil prices, and generally diminished growth prospects in emerging and low-income […]

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