Read paras 5 & 7. Hope someone has good insurance! BBC News - US road bridge collapse in Washington 'caused by lorry' http://t.co/MhfQI2px0l
38 minutes ago
Category Archive: Asia
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China Economic Paradigm Nearing End Game
Skeptics of China’s economic model have looked like hopeless gloomsters for years. Even though they are correct when they point out negatives, such as the fact that no large economy has ever had 50% of GDP coming from investments and exports for a sustained basis or has managed the transition from being export driven to [...]
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The Setting Sun – Japan’s Forgotten Debt Problems
In 1979, the publication of Harvard sociologist Ezra Vogel’s international best-selling book Japan as Number 1signalled the nation’s arrival as an economic power. Today, Japan’s industrial and economic decline is palpable. But in 2012, Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock average rose by around 23%. Much of the increase reflects faith in the reflation strategy of second time [...]
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Recognizing the Need for Economic Adjustment
In China, I have argued many times, high growth is no longer compatible with a strengthening balance sheet. If China is growing at a rate that approaches or exceeds five or six perent, it is probably a safe bet that debt is rising faster than debt servicing capacity. The good news is that the current leadership seems very [...]
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Das: Inflows to India Should Continue in 2013, Provided Adjustment Continues
In late December, RGE Managing Director Arnab Das sat down with Thompson Reuters to discuss the year ahead for India. Following strong inflows in 2012, Das noted that “the global environment has become much more supportive of risk-taking and fund flows to EMs, and India has benefited from that as a very high-beta play,” but [...]
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China to Dominate the 2013 Coal Market
China is the world’s largest coal producer and consumer and currently accounts for about half of the global coal consumption. The U.S. Energy Information Agency noted in its 2012 country analysis brief on China, “Coal supplied the vast majority (70 percent) of China’s total energy consumption of 90 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2009,” [...]
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China in Africa: Partners in the Year of the Snake
African exports to China have increased six-fold since 2000 alone, the bulk of it in oil, and this year, China surpassed the US and Europe as Africa’s largest trading partner. Starting from $11 billion in bilateral trade in 2000, Beijing racked up $160 billion dollars in trade with Africa by 2011, and for 2012 Chinese [...]
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The IMF on overinvestment
The IMF’s Il Houng Lee, Murtaza Syed, and Liu Xueyan have published a very interesting and widely noticed study called “Is China Over-Investing and Does it Matter?” In it they argue that there is strong evidence that China is overinvesting significantly. According to the abstract: Now close to 50 percent of GDP, this paper assesses the appropriateness [...]
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Missing The Big Japan Story
The potential exists for groundbreaking changes in Japanese economic policy – and I sense that Western journalists, caught up in the current celebration of central bankers, are missing the bigger story. In my opinion, a higher inflation target by the Bank of Japan is not particularly interesting. After all, the Bank of Japan can’t hit [...]
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Notable Weekend Developments
Yes, it is the holiday season. Yes, you are unlikely to be taking action with your investments. Yes, the morphing of what is into what will be continues uninterrupted. There were several developments over the weekend that will influence the direction of the markets in the days ahead, with the usual caution about the impact [...]
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Are Chinese Megacities Really Pricier Than New York or London?
Recently, media reports have focused on China’s “soaring” living costs, which presumably are encouraging expats to leave. Realities are more subtle. According to popular surveys, such as those by Mercer and the Economist (EIU), Beijing and Shanghai are pricier than New York and London, while Hong Kong is even more costly. EIU actually places [...]
