Kafijas tirdzniecība ārpus kafejnīcām veicina ļaunprātīgu kafijas lietošanu :)
16 minutes ago
Category Archive: Asia
-
The Real Competition Behind the Olympic Games
The real competition lurking behind the upcoming Olympic games is between democratic capitalism and authoritarian capitalism. For years American policy toward China assumed that trade and economic growth would generate a large Chinese middle class, and this middle class would demand democratic reforms. We were right on the first part. The games will showcase a [...]
-
Economist magazine on India
Today’s Economist echoes the points I made in yesterday’s blog about the current account deficit, and in previous blogs about fiscal deficits and slowing growth. The story is titled “Turning Sour,” referring to the economy, but the final analysis of the reporter is not all that gloomy. The chart is quite illuminating: it shows the [...]
-
Reversal of fortune
Korea’s reserves fell by about $10 billion in July — a bigger fall than in November 1998,* at the height of Korea’s crisis. Korea, of course, has WAY more reserves now. It can afford to intervene heavily — as it clearly did earlier this month. The release of its reserves data just confirms something that [...]
-
India’s oil import bill
In 2006-07, India’s oil import bill was about US $ 48 billion. In 2007-08, it had gone up 40 percent, to US $ 68 billion. By way of comparison, the net invisibles surplus and the current account deficit were US $ 73 billion and US $ 17 billion (1.5 percent of GDP) in 2007-08, versus [...]
-
Is China Suffering an Olympic Shock?
China’s economy is slowing from the heights achieved last year, having decelerated for the past four quarters – and consensus expects a below 10% reading for the second half. Is this the Olympics slump suffered by countries like Greece and Spain rearing its ugly head? Many Olympic host countries suffer a period of slower growth [...]
-
A better rating, but more derivative losses
Standard & Poor’s have just raised China’s long-tem sovereign credit rating to A+, based on its strengthening external position. In part this reflects China’s strong fiscal position – in June according to a release today by Credit Suisse, China’s consolidated fiscal surplus for the previous twelve months reached RMB 443.5 billion, equal to about 1.5% [...]
-
Inflation expectations in India
Here is some data on inflation expectations, from a Reuters story: “Inflation is expected to remain in double digits for most of the year and may fall to around 9 percent by March, a survey among professional forecasters conducted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed. The forecast for end 2008/09 is higher than [...]
-
Another View on Indian Monetary Policy
Andy Mukherjee of Bloomberg also notes the inexplicability of some aspects of the RBI’s policymaking, including the spread between the repo rate and reverse repo rate. He rather mildly complains about the lack of transparency, and notes some of the volatility that has resulted from surprises and suddenness. See http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_mukherjee&sid=aVW.pKYlxjVU
-
Risks for the Indian Economy
Moody’s analyst Aninda Mitra says that the risks facing the Indian economy have grown, due to high oil prices, increasing fiscal deficits (including off-budget items) and “pent-up price pressures.” The government’s ratings (Baa3 for foreign currency and Ba2 for local currency) are unchanged, but under scrutiny. The risk is of tighter monetary policy and a [...]
-
China’s Turn to be Bad Guy in the Doha Round
In a couple of posts, I highlighted the vilification of India’s position in the recent Doha Round talks. The Wall Street Journal (July 29, page A9) now adds China to the villains. “China abandoned its longstanding place on the sidelines of multilateral trade talks…” China doesn’t get beaten up on as much as India did, [...]
