Are Mega-Trade Agreements a Threat to Brazil?

The landscape of international trade negotiations has been undergoing an upheaval. On the multilateral level, after 15 years of unsuccessful attempts to close the Doha Development Round at the World Trade Organization (WTO), the negotiation system has shown to be highly vulnerable to blockades by any small group of member countries. The complex web of […]

The High Density of Brazilian Production Chains

International trade has undergone a radical transformation in the past decades as production processes have fragmented along cross-border value chains. The Brazilian economy has remained on the fringes of this production revolution, maintaining a very high density of local supply chains. This article calls attention to the rising opportunity costs incurred by such option taken […]

Navigating Brazil’s Path to Growth

Brazil’s macroeconomic management will face four major immediate challenges in the near future.  The response to them will be strengthened if we could have some indication of how to steer the Brazilian economy back to a growth route. A first major challenge will be the upward realignment of domestic regulated prices, in a context of […]

Petrobras May Get Political Respite Finally

By Martin Tiller: Over the last few years, stock in the Brazilian state-controlled oil company Petroleo Brasileiro S.A., or Petrobras (PBR), has confounded those who track traditional measures of valuation. The stock has remained stubbornly low in terms of price-to-earnings-ratio (P/E), and even after rallying over the last few days, remains at less than seven […]

A Runoff for Brazil’s Rousseff and Neves

Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff won the first–round of the 2014 presidential election yesterday with almost 42 percent of the vote. The real surprise of the contest, however, came in Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB) nominee Aecio Neves’s impressive second place finish, capturing a third of voters and surpassing Marina Silva of the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB). […]

Corruption Scandal Makes the Brazilian Elections Even More Exciting

(from my colleague Ilan Solot)  The political outlook for the Brazilian elections is being rocked by leaked information about the corruption scandal surrounding Petrobras’ former director Paulo Roberto Costa – affectionately known as the “suicide bomber.” The man-bomb has agreed to a plea bargain (i.e. providing information in exchange for a reduced sentence) and has […]

Lights Out: Brazil’s Power Problem

With the World Cup over, Brazilians are turning to their next big event—October’s presidential elections. While President Dilma Rousseff still leads in the polls, her margins continue to shrink. A recent Datafolha poll puts Rousseff and Aecio Neves—her leading challenger—as statistically tied in a hypothetical second round. Potentially adding to Rousseff’s vulnerabilities is Brazil’s electricity sector, which, […]

Brazil’s Petrobras Ramps Up Production of Pre-Salt Oil

By Nick Cunningham: After several years of very little progress, Brazil is finally beginning to extract oil from ultra-deep water. It’s a welcome development for the South American country, which has experienced four years of flat oil production. Brazil’s economy grew at an astounding pace from 2005 to 2010, thanks to a commodity boom that […]

BRICS Bank Will Not Solve Members’ Energy Issues

By Chris Dalby: From changing the nature of global politics to being a force for human rights, the announcement of the new BRICS development bank has been met with feverish anticipation by the global economic community. Its supporters have written that it will free the world from the grip of the U.S. dollar as reserve currency, while […]

Is the BRICS Bank More ‘Democratic’ Than the World Bank?

The launch of the new BRICS development bank “reflects the disparity and democratic deficiency in the global governance and is trying to restart, to rethink that,” according to Nobel economist Joseph Stiglitz.  But is the BRICS bank really more “democratic” than the World Bank, whose governance legitimacy its founders are challenging? As the Geo-Graphic above shows, […]

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