China’s New GDP Range Target Is a Balancing Act

China’s New GDP Range Target Is a Balancing Act

photo: Thomas sauzedde China’s new growth target of 6.5-7% will ensure more flexibility amid deceleration at home and stagnation in the West. It is a balancing act between reforms and deleveraging.               Last Thursday marked the opening of China’s annual “Two Sessions,” or the annual plenary meetings of the mainland’s […]

QE in the Eurozone Has Failed

QE in the Eurozone Has Failed

photo: Chris Goldberg Eight months have passed since the ECB started its own quantitative easing (QE) program, and almost everyone in Europe seems to agree with Mario Draghi that ‘QE has been a success’. But is such enthusiasm warranted? Let’s take a look at the data. The obvious starting place is the inflation rate. As is […]

Government Debt in Japan and Euro Area: Actions Speak Louder than Words

Government Debt in Japan and Euro Area: Actions Speak Louder than Words

photo: flickr Fiscal Rules in Japan  Fiscal rules, such as a quantitative debt limit, have been proposed to restrain the size of government debt. However, experience has shown that passing laws or issuing rules has little economic effect, unless they are enforced systematically and without delay. This point was illustrated last week by Kenichi Ueda […]

What Ever Happened to the Misery Index?

Remember the 1960s? The 1970s? Back then, inflation surged from one peak to another but failed to deliver the low unemployment rates promised by the Phillips curve. In fit of frustration, economist Arthur Okun invented what he called the misery index—the sum of the inflation and unemployment rates. As the following chart shows, those were […]

As Exports Soar, US Economy Closes in on Fed’s Targets

Revised data released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis show that the US economy grew at a 4.6 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2014, even faster than the 4.2 percent previously estimated. That was the most rapid quarterly growth since Q4 2010. Much of the upward revision was due to the […]

Revised GDP Data Show US Economy Much Stronger than Previously Thought

Today’s report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows the US economy to be much stronger than previously thought. The advance estimate for the second quarter of 2014 showed real GDP expanding at an annual rate of 4 percent. The new data revised the dip in GDP for Q1 from -2.9 percent to -2.1 percent, […]

When Will the Economy Recover? What does “Economic Recovery” Mean, Anyway? Public and Professional Views

According to the latest public opinion poll from CNNMoney, 61 percent of Americans think it will take three more years for the U.S. economy to recover fully from the Great Recession. Only 3 percent think that it has already recovered, while 16 percent think it will never recover. And that was before last week’s news […]

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