Russian FX Reserves and Balance of Payments Vulnerabilities

Russian foreign exchange reserves, while large, are declining. Since reserve holdings (or lack thereof) are one of the best predictors of balance of payments/currency crises, it’s worth taking a look at their trajectory. (See Frankel and Saravelos, 2012 for a recent example) First, consider a long span of quarterly data (through end-2014Q1): Figure 1: Russian international reserves ex.-gold, […]

Euro Area Portfolio Flows

Today the ECB released the Euro area balance of payments for December. This is a statistical release that is worthy of only the biggest data geeks – but it is quite interesting, especially in forming relationships between FX and capital flows. I’ll demonstrate what’s been going on in EA bond, equity, and money markets in one […]