Russian FX Reserves and Balance of Payments Vulnerabilities

Russian foreign exchange reserves, while large, are declining. Since reserve holdings (or lack thereof) are one of the best predictors of balance of payments/currency crises, it’s worth taking a look at their trajectory. (See Frankel and Saravelos, 2012 for a recent example) First, consider a long span of quarterly data (through end-2014Q1): Figure 1: Russian international reserves ex.-gold, […]