Professor Duy received his B.A. in Economics in 1991 from the University of Puget Sound, and his M.S. and Ph.D. in Economics in 1998 from the University of Oregon. Following graduate school, Tim worked in Washington, D.C. for the United States Department of Treasury as an economist in the International Affairs division and later with the G7 Group, a political and economic consultancy for clients in the financial industry. In the latter position, he was responsible for monitoring the activities of the Federal Reserve and currency markets. Tim returned to the University of Oregon in 2002. He is the Director of the Oregon Economic Forum and the author of the University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators and the Central Oregon Business Index. Tim has published in the Journal of Economics and Business.
Recent Blog Posts by Tim Duy
- The Fed and the Fiscal Cliff
- Total Failure
- Calm Before the Storm?
- Closer to Colliding
- Europe Overnight
- Greece Is Running Out of Time
- Hopeful Signs From Europe?
- Greece, Again
- What Should Europe Do?
- U.S. Spending Update
- Bernanke’s Shift
- Distributional Impacts of Monetary Policy
- Initial Claims Up – Time to Worry?
- On Labels, Dove vs. Hawk
- TIC Update
- ECB Monetary Policy: A Reason for Pride?
- Maddening Monetary Policy Making
- Behind the “Trend is the Cycle”
- Fed Minutes Confirm Policy on Hold
- Bernanke, Bullard, and QE3
- Lessons From Japan?
- On Straw Men
- Fed Still Lowering Potential Output Growth Estimates?
- The Output Gap Debate Continues
- FOMC Recap
- Opportunistic Disinflation?
- Oil Prices – It’s What Everyone Is Talking About
- QE3 – Will They or Won’t They?
- Again With Potential Output
- It’s Worse Than You Think
- Another Experiment?
- How This Gets Even Uglier
- I Don’t See How This Can Continue
- Europe Needs a Real Fiscal Union
- ZIRP and Interest Income
- Notes on the Fed Meeting
- Japan, Revisted
- Is Europe About to Unravel?
- Output Gaps and Inflation
- More on the Output Gap
- QE3 or Not?
- Ultimately, It’s About the Inflation Target
- A Few Quick Charts on Consumer Spending
- Still Cautious Heading Into 2012
- ECB Still Not the White Knight
- Global Growth Struggles, Fed Stands Still
- Europe Still Heading For Collapse
- A Mixed Bag From Europe
- Demographic Shift
- Possible Fed Communication Strategy
- Is Anything Better Yet?
- More Europessimism
- Can the US Decouple from the Eurozone?
- Don’t Read Too Much Into Holiday Shopping
- Europe Scrambles for Solutions
- Europe Can’t Move Fast Enough to Halt Crisis
- And the Global Economic Saga Continues
- Games of Chicken
- Endgame Approaching
- Wall Street Ignoring Europe?
- Meanwhile, Back on This Side of the Pond…
- Aftershocks
- Did the European Deal Just Collapse?
- Wither CDS?
- Floating Rate Treasuries
- A Boom in 2013?
- Too Early to Sound the All Clear?
- Don’t Let Monetary Policy off the Hook
- The Fed Drops the Ball
- Too Late for the Unemployed?
- Opinions and Rumors
- The Bernanke of 2003
- Already Thinking About November
- FOMC Reaction – The Extended Version
- Not the 1970s
- Rearranging the Deck Chairs
- A Modest Monetary Proposal
- Ben Speaks
- Questions and Answers
- Brief Hiatus: Fed Policy Assessment
- Weak Medicine
- The Unpleasantness Continues
- That. Was. Unpleasant.
- On the International Front
- On the Edge. Again.
- Consumer Update
- Forecast Update
- On Pins and Needles
- Contemplating the Futility
- From Outside the Beltway
- Is Structural Change the Primary Challenge?
- Is this More than a Bump in the Road?
- Households Are Still Deleveraging. Or Not.
- A Divided FOMC
- The Lost Jobs Opportunity
- FOMC Reaction
- Fed on the Sidelines
- More on Geithner, Deficit Reduction, and Expenditure Switching
- Circling the Drain
- On Rising Rents
- Will the Fed Act?
- The War on Inflation
- More Hawkish Rhetoric
- The Good, the Bad, and the Fed
- Retirement in the Liquidity Trap
- Something to Chew On
- Running the Fed Like an Economics Department
- Quick PCE Notes
- Williamson on the Fed
- Intervention Thoughts
- Policy Still on Autopilot, For Now
- Ignore Hawkish Rhetoric
- The Rearview Mirror
- Commodity Shock
- The Upside of the Tech Bubble
- Acceleration Alert
- Underappreciated Data
- Inevitable Inflation Fears
- Housing and the Fed in 2005
- Are Oil Prices About to Undermine the Recovery?
- More of the Same
- Generally Positive
- A Solid Start to 2011
- Curiously Weak Consumer Confidence
- Turning Tide
- Quick Note on Retail Sales
- Will the Fed Scale Up QE2?
- Fed Watch: Too Little
- The Final End of Bretton Woods 2?
- Yen Intervention
- The Fair
- No Clothes
- Driving Me Crazy
- A Bleak View
- Summer Employment All About Demand
- Trade Deficit Explodes
- Waiting for Nothing?
- Handicapping the Next FOMC Meeting
- More on Disinflation
- Rising NAIRU?
- Anomalous Capacity Shrinkage
- Deficit Widens, Again
- A Deepening Divide?
- Ahead of a Busy Week
- Why Is the American Jobs Machine Broken?
- China, Day One
- China Moves. Or Not.
- A Good Crisis, Wasted
- More on the European Impact
- Still Unbalanced
- The Sweet Spot
- What Could Derail the Recovery?
- Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments
- Is the Fed Eager to Dismiss Deflationary Pressures?
- It’s Not about Interest Rates Yet
- Out of the Gate with a Bang
- Why Christmas Eve?
- Structural and Cyclical
- Ahead of Black Friday
- Should the Fed Be Doing More?
- Sustainable Growth?
- Rushing to the Exits?
- On the G20 Agenda
- Even With Growth, A Long, Hard Road
- Changing Migration Patterns in Oregon?
- Odd WSJ Story on Vermont
- The Recovery Edges Forward
- Is a Jobless Recovery Your Best Friend?
- The Debate Continues
- Rate Hike?
- A Return to a Nasty External Dynamic?
- Turning Which Corner?
- Despite Green Shoots, Odds Favor More Easing
- TALF Disappointment and the Fed’s Balance Sheet
- More on Inflation Expectations
- Johnson and Kwak vs. Bernanke
- The Fed Understands
- Fed-Treasury Accord
- Quick Post on the Oregon Employment Report
- Optimism Abounds at the White House
- Toxic Assets: Bad Bank or Guarantees? Some Intertemporal Trade-Offs
