Seeing Crises Clearly

From the Finance & Development at the IMF:

Prakash Loungani profiles economist Nouriel Roubini

The “Power 50”—that was what Institutional Investor called its 2009 list of the 50 most influential people in the financial world. Many of the names were those of top policymakers and CEOs such as Ben Bernanke and Warren Buffett. Only one professor of economics made the list: at number 44, one notch below Saudi investor Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, was Nouriel Roubini of New York University.

The Excessive Smoothness of Forecasts

Last summer, around this time, the consensus forecast for 2008 U.S. real GDP growth was 2.8%. Almost every month since then, the forecast has tended to be marked down a little: the latest consensus forecast, released ten days ago, is that U.S. growth this year will be 1.5 %. So even though the U.S. economy […]