Silver Linings in China’s Slowdown

Last week, I was interviewed by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) for their website, about the current state of the Chinese economy.  You can read what I had to say below, or check out the original post by clicking here. Silver Linings in China’s Slowdown China’s gross domestic product for the second quarter declined […]

What’s Driving China’s Real Estate Rally? Part 3

In the preceding posts, I examined the first two out of five basic theories that might explain the latest bump in China’s property sales numbers, and whether they portend a genuine turn-around in the nation’s real estate market: Lower Prices are Bringing Buyers Back Looser Restrictions are Unleashing Pent-Up Demand Optimistic Buyers are Misreading the […]

What’s Driving China’s Real Estate Rally? Part 2

Yesterday, I began an investigation into the potential causes behind the latest bump in China’s property sales numbers, and whether they portend a genuine turn-around in the nation’s real estate market.  I noted that five basic theories to account for what has been happening, and promised to examine them each in turn: Lower Prices are […]

What’s Driving China’s Real Estate Rally? Part 1

The buzz is that China real estate is back.  After nearly a year of steep discounting, with both land and housing sales in April looking like they were falling of a cliff, the market was electrified in late May by stories of would-be home-buyers lining up around the block and entire luxury developments selling out […]

Am I a China Bear?

There are two schools of thought on the Chinese economy right now.  The first says “It’s always darkest just before the dawn.”  The second says “It’s always darkest just before it goes pitch black.”  It’s clear that China’s economy is slowing.  But what happens next is far from clear, and the subject of much debate. […]

China: Falling Dominoes

Last month, I called attention to an article in Caixin magazine about the implosion in Beijing of something called a “credit guarantee company,” and examined the potential risks such entities pose to China’s financial stability.  Today, Caixin published another must-read article about a new crisis in which credit guarantees — this time directly between borrowers […]

China: Evergrande Allegations

I was quoted today by the BBC on today’s announcement that China will relax some of its restrictions on foreign investment in its domestic stock market.  You can read my comments here, and I’m also going to talk about it live on BBC TV at 6:30am Friday morning Beijing time (6:30pm Thursday NY time). The […]

China: Data Points and Article Links 6/18/12

Here are some of the data points and article links I’ve been tweeting @prchovanec: (18 Jun) Overcapacity: China aluminum supply = 1.6m tons growing at 20%/year, demand = 1.3m tons growing at 4% http://bit.ly/Pbtx3f (18 Jun) FP: Popular novels offer glimpse into “hidden rules” of Chinese politics http://bit.ly/LwIMCo (18 Jun) RT @chinahearsay Telegraph: ‘Sexy Mandarin’ […]

China: Data Points and Article Links

I’ve been on the road (in China and the US) for the past two weeks.  I’ll have some more substantive thoughts to share on this blog soon, but in the meantime, here are some interesting data points and article links I’ve been sharing via Twitter @prchovanec: (Jun 11) China Bsn News: heavy truck makers may […]

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