Mr. Trump: Can You Deliver it?

Mr. Trump: Can You Deliver it?

U.S. assets reacted in a see-saw fashion to Donald Trump’s victory. Stock futures first dove deeply before climbing up to strong gains as investors developed a view on what kind of economic policy president-elect Trump is likely to pursue. They seem to be pricing in an expectation of higher growth and inflation, as well as […]

The Global Economy Remains Unbalanced

The Global Economy Remains Unbalanced

  Discussions around large current account imbalances among systemically relevant economies as a threat to the stability of the global economy faded out in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. More recently, some signs of a possible resurgence of rising imbalances have brought back attention to the issue. We argue here that, while not […]

A Straitjacket to Help Brazil Fight Fiscal Obesity

A Straitjacket to Help Brazil Fight Fiscal Obesity

Brazil’s GDP contraction since mid-2014 has multiple non-fiscal roots – Canuto (2016a; 2014) – but it has morphed into an unsustainable fiscal trajectory (Canuto, 2016b). Dealing with the latter has become a precondition for full economic recovery and the Brazilian government has submitted to Congress a constitutional amendment bill mandating a public spending cap for […]

Brazil Needs an Honest Waste Loss

Brazil Needs an Honest Waste Loss

Brazil has been suffering from anemic productivity growth. This is a major challenge because in the long run, sustained productivity increases are necessary to underpin inclusive economic growth. Without them, increases in real labor earnings tend to conflict with global competitiveness; collecting taxes in order to fund government expenditures on infrastructure and social policies becomes […]

Turkey’s Economy at the Crossroads

Turkey’s Economy at the Crossroads

On July 15, Turkey’s tumultuous 2016 took a shocking twist as elements within the country’s military attempted a coup against the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The putsch rapidly snapped at the seams, and a night that began with soldiers blocking bridges yielded a morning with those same soldiers flogged by civilians in the […]

Tales of Emerging Markets

Tales of Emerging Markets

Emerging market economies (EM) as a special class of financial assets have recently been subject to two competing tales. On the one hand, there is evidence of continued financial deepening and further integration within the global financial system, while the offer of higher yields remains hard to find elsewhere. On the other hand, there are […]

Suriname: Facing the Storm with a Correction of Course

Suriname: Facing the Storm with a Correction of Course

photo: Nicolas Raymond Suriname is facing twin – external and fiscal – deficits that originated in the commodity price slump of recent years. In response, the Surinamese government started a four-pronged adjustment program in August 2015 to adapt to new circumstances. Falling commodity prices led to multiple shocks on the Surinamese economy… On the back of […]

China’s Spillovers on Latin America and the Caribbean

China’s Spillovers on Latin America and the Caribbean

photo: AK Rockefeller The Chinese economy is rebalancing while softening its growth pace. China’s spillovers on the global economy have operated through trade, commodity prices, and financial channels. The global reach of the effects from China’s transition have recently been illustrated in risk scenarios simulated for Latin American and the Caribbean economies. The Chinese economy is […]

TTIP & TPP – A Threat to Latin America?

TTIP & TPP – A Threat to Latin America?

For centuries, Latin America’s economies have revolved around exporting commodities – be it digging up minerals and hydrocarbons, planting soya or coffee, or taking advantage of what animals leave behind, the region has historically relied on shipping natural resources overseas. Depending on the era, this could certainly be a lucrative endeavor, but commodity prices are notoriously […]

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