Turkey: Lower Reserves and Higher Rates, but Market Turmoil Is Unlikely

Turkey: Lower Reserves and Higher Rates, but Market Turmoil Is Unlikely

Key takeaway – Despite declining reserves and increased interest rates, Turkey is unlikely to suffer a market-crash over the next 12 months. What happened? Since the July 2016 coup attempt, the reserves of the Central Bank of Turkey’s (CBRT) declined. Gross international reserves declined by 14 percent (by USD 14.5 bn, from USD 104.7bn to […]

Qatar: Six Countries Sever Diplomatic Ties, Gulf Unity Under Threat

Qatar: Six Countries Sever Diplomatic Ties, Gulf Unity Under Threat

   A. What happened? On June 4 2017, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Bahrain cut diplomatic ties with Qatar. The four Arab countries—joined a few hours later by Yemen and the Maldives—decided to: a) interrupt their diplomatic relations with Qatar; b) expel Qatar from the coalition currently fighting in Yemen; c) interrupt all transport links […]

President Erdoğan’s New Turkey

Key takeaway – Prime Minister (PM) Erdoğan will win the Presidential elections in the first round, with 52 percent of the vote. Emboldened by popular support, over the next five years he will actively rule the country and re-shape key institutions to consolidate Presidential power. Tensions will rise internally and externally. The opposition will condemn […]

Understanding Turkey: Lower Banking Sector Profitability Ahead

Key takeaway—Over the next five years, Turkey’s banking sector profitability is expected to slow, as ‘return on equity’ will decline from 18.4 (10-year average) to 13 percent; however, banks’ balance sheets will remain healthy, with a capital adequacy ratio above 12 percent. Over the next five years, Turkey’s economic growth will slow. Over 2015-19, despite […]

Understanding Bitcoins

What is a Bitcoin? Introduced in 2009 as a peer-to-peer payment system, the bitcoin developed into a digital currency (BTCs).  Today, the BTC is a financial network able to both transfer and create money. BTCs issuance and use is decentralized (see below), and loosely regulated by the Bitcoin Foundation, a non-profit organization. As BTCs are […]