Menzie D. Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin’s Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs. In 2000-2001, Professor Chinn served as Senior Staff Economist for International Finance on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors. He is currently a Research Fellow in the International Finance and Macroeconomics Program of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and has been a visiting scholar at the International Monetary Fund, the Congressional Budget Office and the Federal Reserve Board. Prior to his appointment at the University of Wisconsin–Madison in 2003, Professor Chinn taught at the University of California, Santa Cruz. He received his doctorate in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley, and his AB from Harvard University.

Recent Blog Posts by Menzie Chinn

• Heritage Assesses the Ever-Expanding Ever-Centralizing Federal Government Sector May 7th, 2013
• No Time for Austerity: US Edition April 19th, 2013
• Gold Prices Falling April 16th, 2013
• Some New Estimates of Japanese Trade Elasticities April 12th, 2013
• Wisconsin, and Her Neighbors: Philadelphia Fed Coincident Indices April 3rd, 2013
• What If People Lived Forever … March 1st, 2013
• Sequester in the Time of ZLB February 12th, 2013
• Evolving Views on Fiscal Multipliers February 7th, 2013
• The 2012 Q4 GDP Release: Upside and Downside Risks February 1st, 2013
• Currency Wars in the Era of Unconventional Monetary Policies January 30th, 2013
• The Macroeconomic Task Ahead January 24th, 2013
• Dragged to the Fiscal Slope December 21st, 2012
• Conditional Inflation Targeting in Effect December 13th, 2012
• What’s Up with Wisconsin Employment? November 27th, 2012
• Maximizing GDP Growth with Minimal Budgetary Cost in the Face of the Fiscal Slope/Cliff November 13th, 2012
• National Research Council: ‘Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis’ November 12th, 2012
• The Employment and GDP Relationship November 1st, 2012
• Romney/Ryan on FEMA and NOAA October 30th, 2012
• Against a Sea of Enemies: China as Currency Manipulator October 17th, 2012
• Imminent Recession? October 2nd, 2012
• Benchmark Revisions and Nonfarm Payroll Employment since January 2009 September 28th, 2012
• Lost Decades: Two Years Later September 26th, 2012
• China’s Trade Surplus September 11th, 2012
• Representative Ryan on Conditional Macroeconomic Prediction September 6th, 2012
• Are You Better Off Than You Were at the End of the Bush Administration? A Data-Based Assessment September 4th, 2012
• Expectations, Uncovered Interest Parity, and the Zero Interest Bound: New Results August 28th, 2012
• Romney Campaign on the Tax Policy Center Study: ‘Objective, Third-Party Analysis’ August 17th, 2012
• Guest Contribution: ‘The Making of America’s Imbalances’ August 7th, 2012
• ‘Slow Recovery or Failed Agenda?’ August 1st, 2012
• We Can Emulate the UK (GDP-wise)! July 30th, 2012
• The Path Not Taken … Thus Far: Debt Deleveraging by Inflation July 25th, 2012
• Would Regulation of Libor Have Passed Senator Shelby’s Benefit-Cost Analysis? July 20th, 2012
• High Inflation at the Gates? July 18th, 2012
• Whither China? July 17th, 2012
• May Temperatures, Economic Implications July 16th, 2012
• Contractionary Fiscal Contraction Is Even More Contractionary June 22nd, 2012
• Austerity, Forced and Unforced June 19th, 2012
• Contractionary Fiscal Contraction, Quantified: European Edition June 14th, 2012
• The Euro Zone Crisis: Political and Economic Perspectives June 8th, 2012
• Some Thoughts on the Employment Release June 6th, 2012
• China and the Impending Global Slowdown June 1st, 2012
• Alexander Field (and Santayana) on Financial Regulation May 29th, 2012
• Expansionary Fiscal Contraction in Action (or Not) May 24th, 2012
• State Dependence and Fiscal Multipliers May 23rd, 2012
• The War on Data Collection Continues: House of Representatives Edition May 18th, 2012
• The Housing Market and the Case for Higher Inflation Targets May 15th, 2012
• Gasoline Prices Implied by Futures May 15th, 2012
• Conditional Inflation Now! May 8th, 2012
• The War on Data Collection May 8th, 2012
• More on Governor Romney’s 500,000 Job Creation Target, Expressed as a Percentage Growth Rate May 6th, 2012
• Thinking About the Double Dip Recession in the UK May 3rd, 2012
• Gasoline Price Trends According to Futures April 22nd, 2012
• A Little Less Unscorable April 17th, 2012
• The Recovery Compared April 10th, 2012
• The Recovery According to Ed “We Are Not in a Recession” Lazear April 6th, 2012
• Lessons from the Crisis for Teaching Macro April 4th, 2012
• Okun’s Law, the Jobless Recovery, and Unexpectedly Fast Net Job Creation April 3rd, 2012
• International Trade, an Enhanced Petroleum Transportation Network, and Gasoline Prices March 30th, 2012
• Revisiting the Determinants of the Term Premium March 21st, 2012
• ‘The Eurozone in Crisis: Origins and Prospects’ March 20th, 2012
• The February Employment Release March 11th, 2012
• Wisconsin Employment Climbs … to 12,500 Below January 2011 Levels March 9th, 2012
• Re-Examining that ‘Massive Stimulus’ March 8th, 2012
• Global Land Sea Anomaly, Global Climate Change, etc. March 4th, 2012
• The ‘Ever Expanding’ Government Illustrated, Part III March 2nd, 2012
• More on Potential GDP and the Output Gap February 28th, 2012
• The 2012 Economic Report of the President February 21st, 2012
• The Budget Forecasts. . . February 15th, 2012
• UK: Into Recession January 26th, 2012
• China: Inflation and Exchange Rate Watch January 13th, 2012
• Looking Forward in the New Year: Crowding Out and Hyper-Inflation Watch January 5th, 2012
• A Call for Action: Conditional Inflation Targetting January 3rd, 2012
• The Year in Review: Fantastical Pseudo Economics December 30th, 2011
• Regulatory Uncertainty, Macro Policy Uncertainty, and Demand December 22nd, 2011
• ‘Are Chinese Trade Flows Different?’ December 16th, 2011
• Lost Decades, Illustrated December 9th, 2011
• Supply Chains and the Future of Globalization in the Wake of the Tōhoku Earthquake and Tsunami December 8th, 2011
• Consumption: Distinguishing Between Keynesian and Permanent Income Motivations, and Deleveraging December 6th, 2011
• The November Employment Situation December 4th, 2011
• Thoughts on Europe, November 2010 and December 2011 December 2nd, 2011
• ‘The First Thing We Do, Let’s Kill All the Beancounters.’ November 30th, 2011
• “Solving America’s Debt Crisis” November 22nd, 2011
• The Economy Slows Here and Abroad November 18th, 2011
• Exports in the Recovery (II) November 15th, 2011
• Has Austerity Brought a Boom in the UK? November 10th, 2011
• ‘Lurking in the Shadows…’ November 4th, 2011
• The Dollar and the Renminbi as International Currencies October 26th, 2011
• Crowding Out Watch, Again October 12th, 2011
• On China: Global Impact, Domestic Costs, Hard Landing, and the RMB as an International Currency October 11th, 2011
• The World Close to Stall Speed October 11th, 2011
• Yuan Appreciation: Do Chinese Trade Flows Behave Differently? (I) October 6th, 2011
• Gov. Perry on Anthropogenic Climate Change October 4th, 2011
• Lost Decades: The Lost Graphs September 27th, 2011
• The Trillion Dollar War of Choice, and the Constraints on Macro Policy September 26th, 2011
• ‘What Predicts a Credit Boom Bust?’ September 25th, 2011
• Lost Decades: The Making of America’s Debt Crisis and the Long Recovery September 19th, 2011
• Europe’s Lehman Moment September 18th, 2011
• The Wrong Track, in Figures September 18th, 2011
• Investment Behavior and Policy Implications September 14th, 2011
• Recovery, or Replaying 1937 (and 2008)? September 9th, 2011
• Double Dip or Not? The Data and Policy Implications September 7th, 2011
• The CPI, and Some Key Components September 2nd, 2011
• Dollar Watch August 25th, 2011
• Fidei Defensor August 23rd, 2011
• Still Waiting for Expansionary Fiscal Contraction in the UK August 12th, 2011
• Facing Reality August 9th, 2011
• Income Share by Top Fractile (continued) August 2nd, 2011
• Tales from the GDP Revisions August 1st, 2011
• The Bonds of August July 27th, 2011
• Assessing the Stimulus and Its Aftermath July 21st, 2011
• The Moral Imperative for the Continuation of Low Tax Rates for the Top Income Fractiles July 14th, 2011
• Random Views on U.S. Default June 29th, 2011
• And Policymakers Are Proposing to Withdraw Stimulus? June 24th, 2011
• How Innocuous Is a Treasury Default? June 1st, 2011
• Unemployment and Output Gaps in a New Keynesian DSGE May 31st, 2011
• Forecasts: What and How Do Business Economists Think? May 26th, 2011
• Are We on the Brink of High Inflation? May 20th, 2011
• What Would Really Bring About a Dollar Dive? May 13th, 2011
• China’s Currency and Trade Balance: Two Pictures May 11th, 2011
• Learning About Long Term Unemployment (II) May 10th, 2011
• Learning About Long Term Unemployment (I) May 4th, 2011
• Chinese Inflation and the Impact on the U.S. Economy April 21st, 2011
• Heritage Breaks Internet Silence on Its Ryan Plan Simulations (w/o a Single Number!) April 21st, 2011
• Representative Ryan’s Roadmap: Interesting Implied Macro Impacts April 8th, 2011
• Renminbi Going Global March 24th, 2011
• Real Interest Rates and Crowding Out: Reagan Era vs. Now March 21st, 2011
• Guest Contribution: The Macroeconomic Aftermath of the Earthquake/Tsunami in Japan March 16th, 2011
• The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Exchange Rate Appreciations March 10th, 2011
• CBO on the Stimulus Package, and Still No Expansionary Fiscal Contraction in UK March 1st, 2011
• Analogy Watch: “Cairo Has Come to Wisconsin”? February 18th, 2011
• Intermediate Macro Exercise: How to Construct a Maximally Contractionary Budget Deficit Reduction February 16th, 2011
• Two Competing Views on America’s Economic Future February 8th, 2011
• The Financial Crisis: Foreseeable and Preventable February 4th, 2011
• UK: No Expansionary Fiscal Contraction Yet February 1st, 2011
• Three Years After the Great Recession’s Start January 27th, 2011
• The Yuan, the Chinese Trade Balance and the US, Again January 20th, 2011
• Explaining Recent Trends in Household Saving January 13th, 2011
• The BIS on Global Forex Trends January 6th, 2011
• Petroleum Prices and the International Dimension December 28th, 2010
• Some Lessons from Recent Global Macro Events December 19th, 2010
• Forgetting About Demand, Once Again December 16th, 2010
• The Correlation Between Money Base Growth and Inflation December 9th, 2010
• And This Is Going to Lead to High Inflation? November 29th, 2010
• Losing the Battle, Winning the War? November 15th, 2010
• The Chamber of Commerce Is the International Cosmopolitan Elite October 31st, 2010
• Currency Wars and (Macro) Competitiveness October 22nd, 2010
• The Incidence of Unemployment and Underemployment, by Income October 7th, 2010
• A Specter is Haunting America July 8th, 2010
• Exchange Rate Angst and Rebalancing June 10th, 2010
• Consumption and Imports: A Snapshot May 13th, 2010
• The Administration’s February Forecast Compared to Current Expectations April 22nd, 2010
• How Important Is Structural Unemployment in the Current Recession/Recovery? December 29th, 2009
• The Prospects for Global Imbalances: A View from the IMF December 28th, 2009
• On Revisions and on Conditioning November 3rd, 2009
• Tracking the Consumption Decline September 11th, 2009
• Guest Blog: Financial Crisis and Reform Déjà Vu September 8th, 2009
• State and Local Employment and Spending Trends September 6th, 2009
• The Lasting Legacy of the Bush Tax Cuts September 1st, 2009
• Reflections on the Causes and Consequences of the Debt Crisis of 2008 August 28th, 2009
• Leading Indicators: Key Economies and the BRICs August 17th, 2009
• Comparing the Current Recession and the “1980-82 Recession” August 4th, 2009
• Good News and Bad News from the GDP Release August 3rd, 2009
• Are Unemployment Statistics Meaningless? Are Spillover Effects Zero? July 28th, 2009
• The Failure of Macroeconomics? July 22nd, 2009
• Ed Lazear on the Stimulus Package July 13th, 2009
• Global Financial Stress July 10th, 2009
• The Informational Content of the OECD Leading Indicators July 7th, 2009
• Back to the Stimulus Debate: W, Timing, the States, and Baselines July 3rd, 2009
• New Papers on International Finance: Crises, Puzzles, and Exchange Rates June 30th, 2009
• Update on US Exports and Imports: The Collapse Continues June 24th, 2009
• The Dollar as a Reserve Currency: Apres le Deluge June 16th, 2009
• DeGlobalization: Transitory or Persistent? June 9th, 2009
• More Thoughts on Potential GDP and the Output Gap May 29th, 2009
• House Prices Continue to Slide May 27th, 2009
• In Search of … Hyperinflationary Expectations May 20th, 2009
• Additional Reflections on the March Trade Release May 14th, 2009
• The Emerging Global Financial Architecture May 7th, 2009
• What Does the Collapse of US Imports and Exports Collapse Signify? May 5th, 2009
• The Great Recession Goes Global April 28th, 2009
• Macroeconomic Schisms April 17th, 2009
• The Demise of the Dollar? Should We Worry about Quantitative Easing and Deficit Spending? April 14th, 2009
• Growth Expectations Stabilize April 11th, 2009
• The Yield Curve, across Countries, across Time April 7th, 2009
• Stress April 1st, 2009
• The Debt to GDP Trajectory in Perspective March 26th, 2009
• The Stimulus Package Considered against a Deteriorating Macro Backdrop March 24th, 2009
• Chinese Exports: “no hope” March 12th, 2009
• The Great Multiplier Debate, New Keynesian Edition March 10th, 2009
• Is the Administration’s GDP Forecast Too Rosy? March 3rd, 2009
• Not Nonsense (House Prices) February 26th, 2009
• The Output Gap: Neoclassical Synthesis, New Classical and New Keynesian February 24th, 2009
• First Reading on (part of) Q1 GDP February 20th, 2009
• Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output, Compared February 19th, 2009
• Recap: The Stimulus Bill and the Macro Impact February 17th, 2009
• Japanese GDP contracts 3.3% q/q in 2008Q4 February 16th, 2009
• Estimated Output Gap, post Trade, Inventory Releases February 12th, 2009
• The Current Downturn: Labor-leisure tradeoff or technological regress February 12th, 2009
• House and Senate Stimulus Bills in Perspective February 10th, 2009
• Why Can’t We All Just Get Along? The Great Multiplier Debate February 5th, 2009
• Budget Surplus? Tax Cut! Budget Deficit? Tax Cut! High Energy Prices? Tax Cut! Deep Recession? More Tax Cuts! February 3rd, 2009