Menzie D. Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin’s Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs. In 2000-2001, Professor Chinn served as Senior Staff Economist for International Finance on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors. He is currently a Research Fellow in the International Finance and Macroeconomics Program of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and has been a visiting scholar at the International Monetary Fund, the Congressional Budget Office and the Federal Reserve Board. Prior to his appointment at the University of Wisconsin–Madison in 2003, Professor Chinn taught at the University of California, Santa Cruz. He received his doctorate in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley, and his AB from Harvard University.

Recent Blog Posts by Menzie Chinn

• The 2012 Economic Report of the President February 21st, 2012
• The Budget Forecasts. . . February 15th, 2012
• UK: Into Recession January 26th, 2012
• China: Inflation and Exchange Rate Watch January 13th, 2012
• Looking Forward in the New Year: Crowding Out and Hyper-Inflation Watch January 5th, 2012
• A Call for Action: Conditional Inflation Targetting January 3rd, 2012
• The Year in Review: Fantastical Pseudo Economics December 30th, 2011
• Regulatory Uncertainty, Macro Policy Uncertainty, and Demand December 22nd, 2011
• ‘Are Chinese Trade Flows Different?’ December 16th, 2011
• Lost Decades, Illustrated December 9th, 2011
• Supply Chains and the Future of Globalization in the Wake of the Tōhoku Earthquake and Tsunami December 8th, 2011
• Consumption: Distinguishing Between Keynesian and Permanent Income Motivations, and Deleveraging December 6th, 2011
• The November Employment Situation December 4th, 2011
• Thoughts on Europe, November 2010 and December 2011 December 2nd, 2011
• ‘The First Thing We Do, Let’s Kill All the Beancounters.’ November 30th, 2011
• “Solving America’s Debt Crisis” November 22nd, 2011
• The Economy Slows Here and Abroad November 18th, 2011
• Exports in the Recovery (II) November 15th, 2011
• Has Austerity Brought a Boom in the UK? November 10th, 2011
• ‘Lurking in the Shadows…’ November 4th, 2011
• The Dollar and the Renminbi as International Currencies October 26th, 2011
• Crowding Out Watch, Again October 12th, 2011
• On China: Global Impact, Domestic Costs, Hard Landing, and the RMB as an International Currency October 11th, 2011
• The World Close to Stall Speed October 11th, 2011
• Yuan Appreciation: Do Chinese Trade Flows Behave Differently? (I) October 6th, 2011
• Gov. Perry on Anthropogenic Climate Change October 4th, 2011
• Lost Decades: The Lost Graphs September 27th, 2011
• The Trillion Dollar War of Choice, and the Constraints on Macro Policy September 26th, 2011
• ‘What Predicts a Credit Boom Bust?’ September 25th, 2011
• Lost Decades: The Making of America’s Debt Crisis and the Long Recovery September 19th, 2011
• Europe’s Lehman Moment September 18th, 2011
• The Wrong Track, in Figures September 18th, 2011
• Investment Behavior and Policy Implications September 14th, 2011
• Recovery, or Replaying 1937 (and 2008)? September 9th, 2011
• Double Dip or Not? The Data and Policy Implications September 7th, 2011
• The CPI, and Some Key Components September 2nd, 2011
• Dollar Watch August 25th, 2011
• Fidei Defensor August 23rd, 2011
• Still Waiting for Expansionary Fiscal Contraction in the UK August 12th, 2011
• Facing Reality August 9th, 2011
• Income Share by Top Fractile (continued) August 2nd, 2011
• Tales from the GDP Revisions August 1st, 2011
• The Bonds of August July 27th, 2011
• Assessing the Stimulus and Its Aftermath July 21st, 2011
• The Moral Imperative for the Continuation of Low Tax Rates for the Top Income Fractiles July 14th, 2011
• Random Views on U.S. Default June 29th, 2011
• And Policymakers Are Proposing to Withdraw Stimulus? June 24th, 2011
• How Innocuous Is a Treasury Default? June 1st, 2011
• Unemployment and Output Gaps in a New Keynesian DSGE May 31st, 2011
• Forecasts: What and How Do Business Economists Think? May 26th, 2011
• Are We on the Brink of High Inflation? May 20th, 2011
• What Would Really Bring About a Dollar Dive? May 13th, 2011
• China’s Currency and Trade Balance: Two Pictures May 11th, 2011
• Learning About Long Term Unemployment (II) May 10th, 2011
• Learning About Long Term Unemployment (I) May 4th, 2011
• Chinese Inflation and the Impact on the U.S. Economy April 21st, 2011
• Heritage Breaks Internet Silence on Its Ryan Plan Simulations (w/o a Single Number!) April 21st, 2011
• Representative Ryan’s Roadmap: Interesting Implied Macro Impacts April 8th, 2011
• Renminbi Going Global March 24th, 2011
• Real Interest Rates and Crowding Out: Reagan Era vs. Now March 21st, 2011
• Guest Contribution: The Macroeconomic Aftermath of the Earthquake/Tsunami in Japan March 16th, 2011
• The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Exchange Rate Appreciations March 10th, 2011
• CBO on the Stimulus Package, and Still No Expansionary Fiscal Contraction in UK March 1st, 2011
• Analogy Watch: “Cairo Has Come to Wisconsin”? February 18th, 2011
• Intermediate Macro Exercise: How to Construct a Maximally Contractionary Budget Deficit Reduction February 16th, 2011
• Two Competing Views on America’s Economic Future February 8th, 2011
• The Financial Crisis: Foreseeable and Preventable February 4th, 2011
• UK: No Expansionary Fiscal Contraction Yet February 1st, 2011
• Three Years After the Great Recession’s Start January 27th, 2011
• The Yuan, the Chinese Trade Balance and the US, Again January 20th, 2011
• Explaining Recent Trends in Household Saving January 13th, 2011
• The BIS on Global Forex Trends January 6th, 2011
• Petroleum Prices and the International Dimension December 28th, 2010
• Some Lessons from Recent Global Macro Events December 19th, 2010
• Forgetting About Demand, Once Again December 16th, 2010
• The Correlation Between Money Base Growth and Inflation December 9th, 2010
• And This Is Going to Lead to High Inflation? November 29th, 2010
• Losing the Battle, Winning the War? November 15th, 2010
• The Chamber of Commerce Is the International Cosmopolitan Elite October 31st, 2010
• Currency Wars and (Macro) Competitiveness October 22nd, 2010
• The Incidence of Unemployment and Underemployment, by Income October 7th, 2010
• A Specter is Haunting America July 8th, 2010
• Exchange Rate Angst and Rebalancing June 10th, 2010
• Consumption and Imports: A Snapshot May 13th, 2010
• The Administration’s February Forecast Compared to Current Expectations April 22nd, 2010
• How Important Is Structural Unemployment in the Current Recession/Recovery? December 29th, 2009
• The Prospects for Global Imbalances: A View from the IMF December 28th, 2009
• On Revisions and on Conditioning November 3rd, 2009
• Tracking the Consumption Decline September 11th, 2009
• Guest Blog: Financial Crisis and Reform Déjà Vu September 8th, 2009
• State and Local Employment and Spending Trends September 6th, 2009
• The Lasting Legacy of the Bush Tax Cuts September 1st, 2009
• Reflections on the Causes and Consequences of the Debt Crisis of 2008 August 28th, 2009
• Leading Indicators: Key Economies and the BRICs August 17th, 2009
• Comparing the Current Recession and the “1980-82 Recession” August 4th, 2009
• Good News and Bad News from the GDP Release August 3rd, 2009
• Are Unemployment Statistics Meaningless? Are Spillover Effects Zero? July 28th, 2009
• The Failure of Macroeconomics? July 22nd, 2009
• Ed Lazear on the Stimulus Package July 13th, 2009
• Global Financial Stress July 10th, 2009
• The Informational Content of the OECD Leading Indicators July 7th, 2009
• Back to the Stimulus Debate: W, Timing, the States, and Baselines July 3rd, 2009
• New Papers on International Finance: Crises, Puzzles, and Exchange Rates June 30th, 2009
• Update on US Exports and Imports: The Collapse Continues June 24th, 2009
• The Dollar as a Reserve Currency: Apres le Deluge June 16th, 2009
• DeGlobalization: Transitory or Persistent? June 9th, 2009
• More Thoughts on Potential GDP and the Output Gap May 29th, 2009
• House Prices Continue to Slide May 27th, 2009
• In Search of … Hyperinflationary Expectations May 20th, 2009
• Additional Reflections on the March Trade Release May 14th, 2009
• The Emerging Global Financial Architecture May 7th, 2009
• What Does the Collapse of US Imports and Exports Collapse Signify? May 5th, 2009
• The Great Recession Goes Global April 28th, 2009
• Macroeconomic Schisms April 17th, 2009
• The Demise of the Dollar? Should We Worry about Quantitative Easing and Deficit Spending? April 14th, 2009
• Growth Expectations Stabilize April 11th, 2009
• The Yield Curve, across Countries, across Time April 7th, 2009
• Stress April 1st, 2009
• The Debt to GDP Trajectory in Perspective March 26th, 2009
• The Stimulus Package Considered against a Deteriorating Macro Backdrop March 24th, 2009
• Chinese Exports: “no hope” March 12th, 2009
• The Great Multiplier Debate, New Keynesian Edition March 10th, 2009
• Is the Administration’s GDP Forecast Too Rosy? March 3rd, 2009
• Not Nonsense (House Prices) February 26th, 2009
• The Output Gap: Neoclassical Synthesis, New Classical and New Keynesian February 24th, 2009
• First Reading on (part of) Q1 GDP February 20th, 2009
• Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output, Compared February 19th, 2009
• Recap: The Stimulus Bill and the Macro Impact February 17th, 2009
• Japanese GDP contracts 3.3% q/q in 2008Q4 February 16th, 2009
• Estimated Output Gap, post Trade, Inventory Releases February 12th, 2009
• The Current Downturn: Labor-leisure tradeoff or technological regress February 12th, 2009
• House and Senate Stimulus Bills in Perspective February 10th, 2009
• Why Can’t We All Just Get Along? The Great Multiplier Debate February 5th, 2009
• Budget Surplus? Tax Cut! Budget Deficit? Tax Cut! High Energy Prices? Tax Cut! Deep Recession? More Tax Cuts! February 3rd, 2009
• IMF: “World Growth Grinds to Virtual Halt…” January 29th, 2009
• Five Reasons Why Fiscal Policy Might Be Completely Ineffective: A Textbook Exposition January 27th, 2009
• Chinese Growth Plunges January 22nd, 2009
• A New Meme: Blame It on Beijing (and Seoul, and Riyadh…) January 22nd, 2009
• I Hope They’re Right: The Forecast in the 2009 ERP January 20th, 2009
• One of My Favorite Papers on Multipliers January 18th, 2009
• Industrial Production during Previous Post-War Recessions January 17th, 2009
• The Startling Dropoff in Trade Flows January 15th, 2009
• International Imbalances: Measurement and Implications January 13th, 2009
• Employment and Output in December January 10th, 2009
• “Trade finance is collapsing” January 2nd, 2009
• Aggregate Demand and Finance and the Collapse in Trade December 30th, 2008
• “Stuff Happens”: the Bush Administration’s Economic Stewardship December 26th, 2008
• ZIRP and the exchange rate…and other macro variables December 24th, 2008
• Credit Crunch or Not December 20th, 2008
• Assessing the Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Measuring the Trilemma’s Configurations over Time December 9th, 2008
• Incipient Chinese Yuan Depreciation in Context December 9th, 2008
• Measuring Import Prices: Implications for GDP Growth December 4th, 2008
• Recession Dating: Some People Are Going to Be Surprised December 2nd, 2008
• William Kristol on Economic Theory and Practice November 29th, 2008
• The Global Economic Crisis: Propagation to the Rest of the World November 24th, 2008
• The Progress of the Financial Crisis in One Picture: Mortgages, Flight to Safety, Credit Lock November 20th, 2008
• The Economic Situation: Some Random Snapshots November 10th, 2008
• China Acts November 10th, 2008
• Main Street Recession Watch: ADP Report on Employment November 6th, 2008
• Fiscal Implications of the Candidates’ Plans November 3rd, 2008
• More on Defense Spending November 2nd, 2008
• Some Additional Observations on the 2008Q3 Advance GDP Release November 1st, 2008
• Pocketful of Multipliers (II): Options for Stimulus Packages October 29th, 2008
• Middle Kingdom Malaise? The Latest Chinese GDP Figures October 24th, 2008
• CRA and Fannie and Freddie as betes noire October 23rd, 2008
• Credit Spreads and How Lax Is Monetary Policy? October 16th, 2008
• The Budget Deficit…and Macro Policies Going Forward October 13th, 2008
• Back to the Great Depression Debates October 9th, 2008
• How Bad Will the Downturn Be? Stylized Facts October 7th, 2008
• Are We Still Sure We’re Not in a Recession? More on the Employment Situation October 7th, 2008
• Chinese Trade: An Update October 4th, 2008
• Implications of Repricing of Dollar Denominated Assets September 23rd, 2008
• Housing Prices: How Far to Go until Bottom? September 23rd, 2008
• Back to the Real Side of the Economy: Recession Watch September 17th, 2008
• Taylor Rules, Synchronized Recession and the Potential for Competitive Depreciation September 11th, 2008
• Corporate tax policy, budget deficits and the capital stock in a neoclassical model of investment September 5th, 2008
• Extending JGTRRA and EGTRRA under the CBO’s March 2008 Baseline September 3rd, 2008
• Why Does It Feel Like a Recession? August 31st, 2008
• The Dollar and the Trade Deficit: How Does Productivity Fit In? August 28th, 2008
• Synergies of the unpleasant kind: recessions, credit crunches and housing busts August 10th, 2008
• Is the GDP deflator for 2008Q2 plausible? August 5th, 2008
• Taylor rules, exchange rates, and the speculation about the dollar/euro rate July 30th, 2008
• Why a lot of people think the CPI is not representative of their experience and are right. At least partly. July 26th, 2008
• Implications of adjustment to riskier dollar assets in a portfolio balance framework, illustrated in three steps July 25th, 2008
• Index Theory and the CPI July 21st, 2008
• The Government’s Macroeconomic Series: X-Files, Dilbert, or Resource Constraints? July 17th, 2008
• The International Investment Position: Latest Estimates, and What’s Missing July 9th, 2008
• Prospects for Inflation outside America – Guest Post from Menzie Chinn July 1st, 2008
• Update and Summary: Economic Activity Measures June 26th, 2008
• Prospects for Nonresidential Investment: Tales from Residential Investment and Corporate Profits June 20th, 2008
• A Closer Look at the Impact of Higher Gasoline Prices June 17th, 2008
• More on De-Globalization: Oil, Transport Costs and Inflation June 6th, 2008
• GDP on the Eve of Recession: Then and (Maybe) Now June 3rd, 2008
• How Effective Will Monetary Easing Be? The Bank Lending Channel and the Implications of Increasingly Internationalized Banks May 28th, 2008