What can Peru really expect from investment grade?

This note is a rough attempt to cut through the hype and examine the opportunities offered to Peru by Fitch’s recent upgrading. The investment grade awarded to Peru by Fitch last week is good news, but all that “on the road to the first world” talk from finance minister Luis Carranza is premature and triumphalist, […]

Is Peru’s Growth Getting Through to the Peruvians?

Inflation is suddenly a hot topic in Peru. In the red corner, we have headlines about chicken and tomatoes up 25% in a week, a CPI number up 1% in February and national inflation spiralling to an official 5.98% YoY with most of the population laughing tragic laughs because if you look closer inflation is […]

Argentina’s new forex policy in three words: Stupid, Stupid, Stupid

Here are a few two year charts that map how some local currencies have done against the dollar.Here’s the Brazilian Real (approx 20% appreciation) The Chilean Peso (approx 18% appreciation) Here’s the Colombian Peso (approx 10% in two years, but 23% from that peak) Now the Peruvian Nuevo Sol (approx 16% appreciation) And to give […]

Argentina: Martin Lousteau Resigning?

Word from Buenos Aires tonight is that Martin Lousteau, Argentina’s Minister of the Economy of just two months, may be about to resign his post. According to our information, Lousteau spent two hours this afternoon with his President, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, where he explained that he could not do his job correctly while other members of […]

Paraguay Calls, LatAm Responds

At the beginning of February, a yellow fever outbreak was reported in isolated areas of Paraguay. On 15th of this month, its government declared a 90 day national state of emergency as the population’s worries mounted as number of reported cases grew to over 30 in several areas of country that included the capital, Asuncion,, […]

High Stakes Poker

Are the stakes about to be raised in the Exxon Mobil vs. Venezuela (read Chávez vs. the USA) story? Last week, buried amongst posturing and rhetoric from both sides that is more easily ignored, there were two small and seemingly unconnected stories that suggest things might get much hotter.   Firstly there was a message […]

Chile: Facing a Severe Energy Crisis

“Before enlightenment, chop wood carry water. After enlightenment, chop wood carry water.” Nansen, 8th century Chinese Zen master. Note: Your author is the first to admit that this post is longer than the average, but it can be summed up in the following six points. If it is still interesting to you after reading these […]

Peru Imports Inflation (Calculation Ideas from Argentina)

Rampant inflation in basic foodstuffs is not a worry to the government of Alan Garcia, it seems. According to respected local newspaper “La Republica”, shoppers have seen prices for chicken rise by 11%, cooking oil by 21%, rice by 7.7%, sugar by 22% and pastas by between 13% and 20%, all in just one week. […]

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