James Picerno has been a journalist since the mid-1980s, specializing in investment strategy, finance and economics. Since 2000, he's been a senior writer at Wealth Manager, a trade magazine for independent financial advisors. For eight years previously, he was a writer for Investment Advisor magazine. His freelance articles on finance, real estate, and investing have also appeared in a variety of other publications over the years, including Barron's. James graduated from Rutgers University with B.A. in journalism and history.
Recent Blog Posts by James Picerno
- Boring, Diversified, And (Still) Tough To Beat
- Macro-Markets Risk Index
- Another 5-Year Low For Jobless Claims
- The Whole & The Parts
- Q2:2013 US GDP Nowcast
- April Payrolls Rebound
- ADP: Slower Slow Growth For April Payrolls
- U.S. Jobless Claims Fell Last Week, Close To A 5-Year Low
- Growing Pains For The Housing Market
- Macro-Markets Risk Index
- Chicago Fed: ‘Slower Economic Activity In March’
- Jobless Claims Are Stuck In Neutral… For Now
- Yet Another Study On The Wonders Of Momentum
- Another Golden Lesson For Asset Allocation and Rebalancing
- A Smart Way to Look at a ‘Dumb’ Investing Strategy
- Jobless Claims Take Another Turn For The Worse
- Manufacturing Growth Slowed In March … Maybe
- Chicago Fed: Economic Activity ‘Improved’ In February
- US Retail Sales: Feb 2013 Preview
- US Nonfarm Private Payrolls: Feb 2013 Preview
- US Economic Profile
- US Q1 GDP Nowcast Update
- The (Really) High Price Of Active Management
- US Industrial Production: January 2013 Preview
- Tactical ETF Review
- Major Asset Classes: January 2013 Performance Review
- Durable Goods Orders Post A Surprisingly Strong December Gain
- Industrial Production Increased Moderately In December
- It’s Official: US November Sales Increased Across The Board
- Mediocrity Strikes Again
- Will Relatively Low Inflation Expectations Persist In 2013?
- Does Sub-Saharan Africa Deserve A Slice Of Your Portfolio?
- Obsessing Over The Trees (And Overlooking The Forest)
- Housing Starts Fall In November, But Outlook Remains Bright
- Q4:2012 U.S. GDP Nowcast Update
- Industrial Production Rebounds Sharply In November
- November Job Growth Slows … Because Of Hurricane Sandy?
- A Long, Strange Season For Macro Analysis
- Review of Major Asset Classes
- Chicago Fed: Slower Economic Activity In October
- A Perverse Relationship: Equity Prices and Inflation Expectations
- The Housing Recovery Rolls On
- History Lessons and Financial Crises
- Another Civics Lesson … The Hard Way
- New Filings For Jobless Benefits Continue To Decline
- A Sober Wake-Up Call The Morning After
- Q4:2012 U.S. GDP Nowcast Update
- When A 10-Year Treasury Yield Just Isn’t Enough
- Chicago Fed: September Economic Conditions Improve Slightly
- New Home Sales Rise In September, But…
- Passive Asset Allocation vs. The World
- Still Joined At The Hip: Inflation Expectations and Stocks
- Industrial Production Rebounds In September
- September Retail Sales: Another Solid Increase
- Jack Welch, Employment Data, And The Big Picture
- U.S. Economic Trend Update
- A Slight Jump For Jobless Claims Last Week
- Estimating Recession Risk Probabilities With A Probit Model
- Review of Major Asset Classes, September 2012
- Contradiction Du Jour: Durable Goods Orders vs. Jobless Claims
- Managing Revision Risk
- Tactical ETF Review
- Housing Starts Rise In August As New Building Permits Slip
- U.S. Economic Trend Update
- It’s The Government’s Shrinking Payrolls, Stupid
- A Primer On Defining Indexing Methodologies
- Major Asset Classes: August 2012 Performance Review
- Income and Spending Update Boosts July’s Economic Profile
- Exports and A Strong Dollar: Not Necessarily Perfect Together
- Have Sharpe Ratios Peaked?
- Estimating The Optimal Rebalancing Rules
- Closet Indexing In The Age Of ETFs
- Fiscal Cliff Risk In Perspective
- Profiling Success: One Financial Advisor’s View On Asset Allocation and Rebalancing
- Forecasting Economic Activity…Just Slightly
- Another July Upside Surprise: U.S. Industrial Production
- A Summer Dip for the Monetary Base
- Private Payrolls Rebound In July
- A Better-Than-Expected Gain in July Payrolls, ADP Reports
- Q2 GDP Rises a Sluggish 1.5%
- A Mixed Bag of Economic Updates
- Strategic Briefing – Is the Fed Set to Roll Out QE3?
- What’s Next for the Link Between Stocks & the Inflation Outlook?
- Industrial Production Rebounds In June
- Jobless Claims Drop to 4-Year Low… Due To Seasonal Distortion?
- Recession Risk In Perspective
- Strategic Briefing: Deflation Risk in China
- Jobless Claims Drop & the June ADP Employment Tally Perks Up
- Strategic Briefing – Debating Monetary Policy (Still)
- Strategic Briefing – Staring at the Fiscal Cliff
- Estimating Recession Risk (One Monthly Data Set at a Time)
- Strategic Briefing – Falling Oil Prices & the Economy
- Searching for Macro Clues on Google
- A Year Later, Core Inflation Doesn’t Look So Rotten
- Can the U.S. Economy Continue to Fend Off Euro Risk?
- Jobless Claims Data (Still) Suggest Modest Job Growth Ahead
- Chart Chatter: Wage Growth & the Business Cycle
- Strategic Briefing – U.S. Jobs & the Economy
- Another Month of Slow Job Growth in May
- Strategic Briefing – Will Spain Leave the Euro?
- Budget Battles & Reality Checks
- The Housing Recovery: An Update
- Strategic Briefing – Taxmageddon and the Economy
- Strategic Briefing: Will Greece Leave the Euro?
- Is That a Recession or Just More Slow-Growth Turbulence?
- Does History Support NGDP Targeting Now?
- Investing in a G-Zero World
- Strategic Briefing – Fed Governors and Monetary Policy Under Pressure
- Is April’s Slow/Low Payroll Growth Signaling the New Normal or a New Recession?
- A New Old Explanation for Recessions & Financial Crises
- Manufacturing Activity Strengthens in April
- Strategic Briefing – The Macro Pain in Spain
- Is Personal Income Growth (Finally) Stabilizing?
- Three Regional Fed Surveys Report Slower Growth In April
- Parsing the Finer Points of “Reckless” Behavior for Monetary Policy
- What Happened to Peak Oil?
- Presidential Politics & the Business Cycle
- Is the Recent Rise in Jobless Claims Warning of Another Spring Slowdown?
- Strategic Briefing – Is Euro Risk on the Rise Again?
- Another Strong Month for Retail Sales in March
- Is Commercial Loan Growth a Positive Sign for the Economy?
- A Bit of Humility Is Still Required for Predicting the Business Cycle
- Job Growth Slows Sharply In March
- Untangling Inflation Worries
- Is Extremism in the Defense of the Gold Standard an Economic Vice?
- Chicago Fed: US Economic Activity “Near Average” in February
- New Unemployment Claims Drop to a New 4-Year Low
- Housing’s Uneven Recovery in February
- A Big Week for Housing Reports
- The New Abnormal: An Update
- Retail Sales Rise in February, But Higher Gas Prices Climb Too
- February Delivered Another Respectable Month of Job Growth
- Debating (and Misreading) Milton Friedman’s Legacy for Monetary Policy
- Slowing Income & Spending Levels Cloud Economic Outlook
- Four Regional Fed Banks Report Economic Growth In February
- In Search of Smoking Guns
- Inflation Expectations & Stocks Still Moving in Lockstep
- Jobless Claims Flat Last Week at 4-Year Low
- Is Gold Really an Inflation Hedge?
- Expecting More From Housing
- Papering Over the Gold Standard’s Flaws
- A January Thaw for Retail Sales
- Is the New Abnormal on Its Last Legs?
- Been Down So Long–Has Housing Finally Bottomed?
- Still No Sign of Recession Risk in Latest Jobless Claims Data
- Job Openings on the Rise
- Quantifying Economic Policy Uncertainty
- Private Payrolls Post a Surprisingly Strong Gain in January
- Jobless Claims Continue to Trend Lower
- A Troubling Trend For Income & Spending Rolls On
- December Economic Activity Improved, Chicago Fed Reports
- Delicate Relations: Markets & Macro
- New Jobless Claims Drop Sharply
- An Optimist’s Optimist on the Economy
- Jobless Claims Rise as Retail Sales Slow
- Crunch Time for the Business Cycle
- The Great Debate About Recession Risk Rolls On
- Private Payrolls Rise 212k in December
- The January Effect & the Year Ahead
- Major Asset Classes, Performance Update
- Prediction Addiction: 2012 Edition
- Thinking Optimistically for the Year Ahead
- Re-reading Irving Fisher
- Sometimes Inflation Is Less (Or More) Than It Seems
- November’s Weak Spending & Income Report Clouds Outlook
- A Closer Look at Yesterday’s Encouraging Report on Jobless Claims
- Jobless Claims Drop to the Lowest Level Since May 2008
- Another Trip Down the Macro Memory Hole?
- Can We Trust The Moderate Growth Forecasts?
- Jobless Claims Drop to 9-Month Low
- Labor Dept. Says Private Payrolls Rose a Moderate 140,000 in November
- Will October’s Economic Momentum Last?
- Will the Barricades Fall?
- Draghi Isn’t Ready for His Closeup
- Europe’s Central Banking Crisis
- The Triumph of Austerity (and its Consequences)
- The Forecast File: US Retail Sales for October
- Will Slowing Income Growth Spoil the Party?
- Sluggish Job Growth Prevails… Again
- Jobless Claims Drop Below 400k
- U.S. Economy Grew 2.5% in Third Quarter
- Hayek’s Solution
- U.S. Leading Indicators
- A Small Dip In Jobless Claims Keeps Hope (And The Un-Recession) Alive
- Macroeconomic Advisers: U.S. GDP Rose 0.4% in August
- The New Abnormal: Inflation Expectations & the Stock Market
- No Sign Of Recession In September Retail Sales
- Saving the Euro: Part 16-A/4.b (Subsection F)
- Sometimes (Macro) History Bites
- Private Sector Jobs Rose 137,000 Last Month… Whew!
- Dimished Expecations for Tomorrow’s Employment Report
- Jobless Claims Drop Sharply. Can We Believe It This Time?
- The Case For Monetary Cranks
- Too Much of a Good Thing?
- Jobless Claims Fell Last Week, But the Trend Still Looks Troubling
- The Decline & Fall of Inflation Expectations… Again
- Industrial Production Vs. Credit Spreads
- Another Zero for August Economic Activity
- The Real Yield: A Critical Factor in the Current Climate
- Macro Solutions, Practical and Otherwise
